Oil and Natural Gas

looks nice na

If you say so but I don't see the connection to the post I made about ... longer term. You did read that part, huh?

And not the next couple of hours.

i know no connection with your post . want your attention and valuable comments on chart , thats y quoted you

…seems like a sideways type of week…

did also expect that but im afraid that dollar looks too weak atm.

Go for it. Crabs, bats, gartleys, flags, wedges & h&s patterns are not my thing.

Just time, price, momentum and patterns with some EW - bars themselves such as HH's and LLs and breaking support/resistance.

Despite good economic USD news, production records with the Saudis, all seems to be trumped this week by a stronger euro, new one for myself personally, appears we may get to 48 or a little more…

looks more like weak dollar atm, right now cpi data is hiding the weakness in dollar they suck weak holders in to it before ireversal.

Well my charts show the Dollar a little less "weak" today and the Euro and other pairs (excluding Swissie) negative!

If today and right now is the only consideration you make to judge a currency then you must buy dollar right now usd/try did almost not react on cpi its a good short imo. Rates are good so people very likely already going for it.

now it looks a bit more clear

lol another confirmation that higher prices ahead. Bloomerg crap.

We are more likely to see $20 than $100 any time soon.

People have been calling for this $20 last three months. Now even my cell is calling for itI remember how bloomberg was overestimating dollar recently just the day before reversal. Look at this: "20$ oil could be reality if this happens" this made me lol rest of the day

I expect:
1. Oil will gain on low dollar. (right now)
2. Oil will gain on falling gold. (soon) or when fed change rates.

I expect oil to drop ... because of the fed rate change - which will strengthen dollar further which will weaken both gold and oil and euro and ... and ...

I don't listen to what the media says but I do know they are not always wrong.

It would be easy to just bet against them and therefore everyone would be doing it. Obviously everyone does not so it must not be easy.

The FOMC recently made it clear that rates will not be increased anytime soon so I expect the price of WTI oil to steadily rise to around the $55 region. I think there is either no hope or Bob Hope chance of oil reaching $20/barrel.

ah nice to see im not all alone. Dollar will go up again when oil is in place. But how much a rate increase do you really expect? The real money was in the speculation phase thats what people dont get. Now usd will drop like gbp did untill rates change, what they say will not make impact only what they do. I already get the smell of a petrodollar show. Dollar will be kept as high as possible with rates and oil will rocket.

And remember if gold drops there is even a greater chance that oil will rocket. All the money do not vanish it moves from one place to another. Long term money going from gold to oil sooner or later thats why we have such black propoganda on oil right now they want to trap as many as possible in to wrong direction here.

An article for thought, why $20 could be very possible

The Perfect Storm For Oil Hits In Two Months: US Crude Production To Soar Just As Storage Runs Out

Zero Hedge
March 22, 2015

Less than two weeks agowe warnedthat based on the current oil production trend, the US may run out of storage for crude as soon as June.

This is what wesaid back in early Marchwhen the BTFDers were hoping WTI in the low $40s would never again be seen:

Come June, when all available on-land storage is exhausted, each incremental barrelwill have to be dumped on the market forcing prices lower and inflicting further pain on the entire US shale complex(just as Q1 results are released which will invariably show huge writedowns as companies will no longer be able to hide behind the SEC-mandated accounting trick that made Q4 results appear respectable). Here’s Soc Gen: “…oil markets can be impatient and prices could drop considerably lower. As we have written previously, we are currently more concerned about downside risk than upside risk.”

Since then, as expected, crude tumbled to new post-Lehman lows, confirming the global deflationary wave is raging (for more details please see China), and WTI only posted a rebound on quad-witching Friday as another algo-driven stop hunt spooked all those who were short the energy complex.

The problem is that despite the latest “dead oil bounce” we have since had to revise our forecast for full US oil storage, and pulledforwardthe date when this will happen in the aftermath of the latest API inventory data.

Recall that earlier thisweek API reported,and EIA later confirmed, that for the 10th week in a row there was a “massive 10.5 million barrels (far bigger than the 3.1 million barrel expectation) and a 3 million barrel build at Cushing.If this holds for DOE data tomorrow (and worryingly API has tended to underestimate the build in recent weeks) it will be the biggest weekly build since 2001.”

TheDOE indeed confirmedall of this:

It also means that at the current rate of record oil production, storage will be exhausted inundertwo months, some time in mid-May. At that point, with no more storage to buffer the record oil production, the open market dumping begins and prices of WTI will crater as every barrel will have to be sold atanyclearing price, since the producers will have no other choice than to, literally, dump the oil.

In other words, a perfect storm is shaping up for oil some time in late May, early June.

And then we learned something even more startling.

As thePlatts oil blog reports, even as oil prices continue to fall amid flat demand and near-record supply, “North Dakota is likely to see a “big surge” in production this June, potentially besting another supply record even if prices continue to crater, according to Lynn Helms, director of the state’s Department of Mineral Resources.”

What make things worse is that this time the production “surge” will have nothing to do with game theory, orbeggaring thy oil producing neighborin hopes that the other,more leveredguy goes bankrupt first.

This surge will be largely propelled by two factors: a state-mandated time limit on drilling and the expected trigger of a major oil tax incentive, Helms said.

Here is how Bakken production has looked like in recent months:

Helms, the state’s top oil and gas official, reported last week that North Dakota oil production fell about 3%, or about 37,000 b/d, to 1.190 million b/d from December’s all-time high of 1.227 million b/d. The reduction was expected as sweet crude prices averaged $31.41/barrel in January, down from $40.74/b a month earlier and the statewide rig count fell by 21 to 161.

But Helms said he doesn’t expect production to tumble dramatically, even as prices continue to fall, and even though he expects the statewide rig count to “bottom out” at about 100 rigs. Production, he said, will likely remain between 1.1 million b/d to 1.2 million b/d over the next few months.

Nothing surprising.

And thenthiswill happen: “Bakken production could suddenly skyrocket, by nearly 10%, or an additional 75,000 b/d, to 100,000 b/d in June, Helms said.”This means that despite low prices and production curtailments throughout much of North America,oil production in North Dakota could actually shatter a new record this summer!

This is mainly due to a backlog of between 800 to 1,000 uncompleted wells statewide,about 125 of which need to be completed by the end of June in order to comply with state requirements to complete drilling within a year.

At the same time,operators may wait until June, when a major oil tax incentive known as the “large trigger” is expected to go into effect. The large trigger, which is aimed at boosting Bakken production at times of low crude prices,enters into force when the WTI crude price averages below $55.09/b for five consecutive months.

If that incentive is triggered, which Ryan Rauschenberger, North Dakota’s tax commissioner, said he expects will happen, the majority of wells will be exempt from a 6.5% oil extraction tax for as long as two years.

With that tax break in effect and hundreds more wells running up against one-year state deadlines,production in North Dakota could continue to surge even beyond the summer.

“We’re going to ride these waves of production increases,“ Helms said.

And that, coming just as US spare oil capacity hits its limit, is precisely what all those BTFDers who bought first junk bonds, and most recently, a desperate scramble infollow-on equity offeringsby the universe of cash burning US shale companies, is precisely what they did not want to hear. Because no amount of Fed ramblings about the ever weaker US economy will offset what is about to be a veritable oil tsunami.

The time to buy asset may be when there is blood on the streets, but the moment to dump crude (and buy deep OTM puts) will be precisely when the majority of investors and algo-programming math PhDsrealizethat in just about two months the streets are about to become black, covered entirely in oil.

This oil rally to 48 is ridiculous and not going to last, maybe it'll go as high as 50 on this leg, overall if you're bullish on oil just wait to get destroyed, I figured we'd bounce @ the 43.50 lows and sorta wanted to long , but this is all a trick in a tricky game, 35 will come in a few months. Really starting to test my patience though, I should probably wait till 50 gets hit because this is just how markets work they have to stop everyone out and cause losses for everyone on both sides, because after all, it is a rigged game