Oil and Natural Gas | Page 60 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Natural gas trading 113 replies

Natural Gas Stopped out Bad start 8 replies

Why is natural gas going down? 6 replies

Differences in Oanda natural gas prices? 6 replies

natural gas - 10 consecutive red candles in a row 10 replies

Attachments: Oil and Natural Gas
Exit Attachments

Oil and Natural Gas

  • #1,181
  • Mar 19, 2015 3:54am Mar 19, 2015 3:54am
Quoting DaTokyoHustl
{quote} ...SO why did you chicken out from letting your profit run from a really awesome high point? What do you think is going to drive up the price? Unemployment data? the lesser importnat FOCM statements later on?
I am very unsure that this is going to drop more anytime soon. It it may, signs are there and there are no reasons for bulls to take the wheel now but my opinion is that this is going to range for sometime and I rather cash in then let it float. If it drops low I will buy and if it rises again I will sell.

Also since I do not oil keep positions open for longer than a week and work with TP, having the positions closed was a no brainer for me.
  • #1,182
  • Mar 19, 2015 6:12am Mar 19, 2015 6:12am
USOil trending down on a (b) wave.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USOilH1 19Mar15.png Size: 49 KB
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #1,183
  • Edited 7:12am Mar 19, 2015 6:17am | Edited 7:12am
Quoting skyhok
USOil trending down on a (b) wave. {image}
Your IV wave is going to be way bigger than your II.

Also why exactly are you anticipating such an irregular IV?
  • #1,184
  • Mar 19, 2015 6:43am Mar 19, 2015 6:43am
Big reversals not easy to anticipate, but think the triangle i wait for is getting closer. Maybe a slight new low on D and if no news gets in the way then long from there.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: #CLM30+.png Size: 25 KB
  • #1,185
  • Mar 19, 2015 7:12am Mar 19, 2015 7:12am
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} Your IV wave is going to way bigger than your II. Also why exactly are you anticipating such an irregular IV?
Yes, it's one of EW guidelines and a very important one that wave 2 and wave 4 alternates in size, complexity and depth.
- Search Google 'EW rule of alternation'.


Present USOil wave iv is a running correction which usually takes place in trending 5th waves and c waves, and I find that very true from the charts I looked at in past years. Hope this wave iv proof the point.

If u like to go into depth, check out this free ebook: (not my book & I'm not a commercial forum member)
http://newelliottwaverule.org/dl/New...ssy%202009.pdf
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #1,186
  • Mar 19, 2015 7:14am Mar 19, 2015 7:14am
I think we will see a new low with nice big pinbar and then go up to sky!
  • #1,187
  • Mar 19, 2015 8:43am Mar 19, 2015 8:43am
Quoting alayinizAMK
Big reversals not easy to anticipate, but think the triangle i wait for is getting closer. Maybe a slight new low on D and if no news gets in the way then long from there. {image}
no reason to jump the gun imo. But if news or something catch in its too late.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: #CLM15.png Size: 18 KB
  • #1,188
  • Mar 19, 2015 10:27am Mar 19, 2015 10:27am
Attached Image
Possible fourth wave triangle , giant 3 wave head fake yesterday in fx and oil ,i stayed out thank god, triangle thrust measurement would be low 38, high 37, being patient, baking up the truck for a long there
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} Your IV wave is going to be way bigger than your II. Also why exactly are you anticipating such an irregular IV?
  • #1,189
  • Mar 19, 2015 12:37pm Mar 19, 2015 12:37pm
Quoting OpenRoad
{image}Possible fourth wave triangle , giant 3 wave head fake yesterday in fx and oil ,i stayed out thank god, triangle thrust measurement would be low 38, high 37, being patient, baking up the truck for a long there{quote}
Don't have a clue where you are applying the first set of a, b, c waves
  • #1,190
  • Mar 19, 2015 12:58pm Mar 19, 2015 12:58pm
Quoting skyhok
{quote} Yes, it's one of EW guidelines and a very important one that wave 2 and wave 4 alternates in size, complexity and depth. - Search Google 'EW rule of alternation'...
I know all about alternation.

But there is varying in size of price and time somewhat and then there is blown way out proportion variance.

That is what your count appears to be doing.

Maybe it will turn out right. I have my doubts though.
  • #1,191
  • Mar 20, 2015 3:00am Mar 20, 2015 3:00am
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} I know all about alternation. But there is varying in size of price and time somewhat and then there is blown way out proportion variance. That is what your count appears to be doing. Maybe it will turn out right. I have my doubts though.
It's very much proportional to the large wave (a) just developed, unless you've got an alternate count I'd like to see.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #1,192
  • Mar 20, 2015 5:17am Mar 20, 2015 5:17am
After FOMC spike my 4th is irregular but its 161.8% of price of wave 2 and equal in time.

Also my charts have the adjusted data after roll to new June futures contract - if you notice a difference.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Crude H1.png Size: 53 KB
  • #1,193
  • Mar 20, 2015 6:38am Mar 20, 2015 6:38am
looks like a bull trap

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: #CLM30-.png Size: 28 KB
  • #1,194
  • Mar 20, 2015 7:28am Mar 20, 2015 7:28am
The market moves further up and it is always right.
While it's ok to change ones mind in trading, therefore wave count changed :
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USOilH1 20Mar15.png Size: 46 KB
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #1,195
  • Mar 21, 2015 7:45pm Mar 21, 2015 7:45pm
Quoting alayinizAMK
looks like a bull trap {image}
I lost my high point @ 45.5 … still managed a mere 50 pips though… USD stagnation vs fundamental over supply? I still cant buy this market with confidence…Question is to see if the bull run extends or to take up a new short in hopes of taking a new high point until we get to 40…? Anyone care to share their take before kick off this week?
  • #1,196
  • Edited Mar 22, 2015 5:47am Mar 21, 2015 10:50pm | Edited Mar 22, 2015 5:47am
Quoting DaTokyoHustl
{quote} I lost my high point @ 45.5 still managed a mere 50 pips though USD stagnation vs fundamental over supply? I still cant buy this market with confidenceQuestion is to see if the bull run extends or to take up a new short in hopes of taking a new high point until we get to 40? Anyone care to share their take before kick off this week?
It's not difficult to understand the doubt on trading present PA in such unpredictable market like USOil.
It's not so much about predicting where such market goes, but more about minimal 'initial' position sizing
(according to trading account or allowable % risk), that are seldom talked about in forums that,

Considering the 3 outcomes:
1. market moves off and miss a trade 33.3%
2. in the trade & market moves in favor 33.3%
3. in the trade & market moves against 33.3%

The advantage of placing minimal 'initial' position size is

1. market moves in favor and pickup small gain,
with the chance of adding more contracts or go hard on it when market moves into trend and at breakout point 66.6%
vs
2. incur ONLY very small loss when stopped out 33.3%

I can certainly sleep better with only a small initial position.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #1,197
  • Mar 22, 2015 5:50am Mar 22, 2015 5:50am
I do the reverse. Full in, take off as its goes - whether in my favor or not.

And of course full exit if it goes completely against me.

So I never add to a loser.
  • #1,198
  • Mar 22, 2015 8:05am Mar 22, 2015 8:05am
Quoting DaTokyoHustl
{quote} I lost my high point @ 45.5 still managed a mere 50 pips though USD stagnation vs fundamental over supply? I still cant buy this market with confidenceQuestion is to see if the bull run extends or to take up a new short in hopes of taking a new high point until we get to 40? Anyone care to share their take before kick off this week?
Think stagnation is a bit optimistic to say on short term. Usd going to fail until fed becomes serious about hikes, otherwise its going to be punished like gbp did, words are not enough from here the speculative buble seems to be done so action is required now. Crude will gain on this imo so i think we are in good low risk areas right now for a try.
  • #1,199
  • Mar 22, 2015 9:03am Mar 22, 2015 9:03am
Here is something to ponder longer term from a newsletter I get:

The British government, in a desperate attempt to keep its flailing oil and gas sector afloat, proposed new tax cuts this week. The oil and gas sector has been petitioning the government for some tax relief, arguing that it suffers under burdensome taxes that make oil and gas production increasingly uneconomical. The North Sea is in decline, and the collapse in oil prices threatens to be the nail in the coffin. The tax cuts will reduce the supplementary tax on oil and gas from 30 percent down to 20 percent, and older fields will get some extra relief as well. This comes at a time when the iconic Brent oil field is nearing the end of its life, symbolizing the waning importance of the North Sea to global oil supplies. Now producing just 1,000 barrels per day, Brent is no longer the massive field it once was, raising questions about Brent as an international benchmark. The market for Brent futures is still one of the most important. Nevertheless, the disappearance of actual Brent crude, along with other sources of North Sea oil, hastens the day in which other benchmarks – such as Dubai – surpass Brent in their importance.
  • #1,200
  • Mar 23, 2015 2:56am Mar 23, 2015 2:56am
Who knows what's block oil to going really up or just go stright on up trend?
5 traders viewing now