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Zappa's Journal

  • #221
  • Mar 20, 2015 6:55pm Mar 20, 2015 6:55pm
Quoting Zappa
Here's what I'm thinking. {image}
Hope you're right
  • #222
  • Mar 21, 2015 5:16am Mar 21, 2015 5:16am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Hope you're right
Thanks. Did you reverse?

Dude, the EURO is about to go on a fucking tear! This should be fun!
  • #223
  • Mar 21, 2015 12:09pm Mar 21, 2015 12:09pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Thanks. Did you reverse? Dude, the EURO is about to go on a fucking tear! This should be fun!
I don't know about a tear, and i definitely don't think it's going to 1.2 anytime in the next few years. That would be a dream come true, but people have gotten too bearish and arrogant down at these levels, so they may need even more of a beating... 1.13 is a level I'd be very interested in selling.
  • #224
  • Mar 21, 2015 2:56pm Mar 21, 2015 2:56pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Thanks. Did you reverse? Dude, the EURO is about to go on a fucking tear! This should be fun!
It has become way too much of a consensus now to sell the euro, you will probably do really well on this ... i think EUR/GBP will do really well too.
  • #225
  • Mar 22, 2015 5:51pm Mar 22, 2015 5:51pm
Another more refined look.

Obviously, much deviation from the projected path voids the entire thing, but I still think its a great skill to practice. It helps keep you a few steps ahead, provided you get it right. More than that, it forces one to use logic, which is more powerful than any tool someone could give you, IMO.
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  • #226
  • Mar 22, 2015 6:06pm Mar 22, 2015 6:06pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} I don't know about a tear, and i definitely don't think it's going to 1.2 anytime in the next few years. That would be a dream come true, but people have gotten too bearish and arrogant down at these levels, so they may need even more of a beating... 1.13 is a level I'd be very interested in selling.
I noticed a lot of people think parity is inevitable, and in the very near future. What happens when EURUSD continues going higher and parity gets further away? People will start to panic and bail on their short positions. This is the foundation of a strong move in the making----MASSIVE PANIC!

Let's see what happens. This was an awesome move down we had over last 10 months. There WILL be a reaction, and I think it has begun. Fundamentally it is not good for the US to have such a strong currency, so I'm sure they've got ways to handle that problem. How exactly they do it, I don't know. Maybe they don't do anything, but I doubt it.

Never doubt or underestimate the power of panic when trading.
  • #227
  • Mar 22, 2015 6:08pm Mar 22, 2015 6:08pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} I noticed a lot of people think parity is inevitable, and in the very near future. What happens when EURUSD continues going higher and parity gets further away? People will start to panic and bail on their short positions. This is the foundation of a strong move in the making----MASSIVE PANIC! Let's see what happens. This was an awesome move down we had over last 10 months. There WILL be a reaction, and I think it has begun. Fundamentally it is not good for the US to have such a strong currency, so I'm sure they've got ways to handle that...
Ya... have you looked at EUR/GBP? it has very likely put in a bottom...
  • #228
  • Mar 22, 2015 6:15pm Mar 22, 2015 6:15pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Ya... have you looked at EUR/GBP? it has very likely put in a bottom...
Yes, it does look very possible. Euro looks like it might be at the bottom against pretty much every other currency. This is another reason I say the Euro could be VERY powerful for a while.

And EURGBP is why I went long EURUSD not GBPUSD.
  • #229
  • Mar 22, 2015 6:23pm Mar 22, 2015 6:23pm
And finally, my stop for now. I think this is giving it plenty of room. If it goes down that far, then I don't want this set-up anymore.
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  • #230
  • Mar 22, 2015 6:28pm Mar 22, 2015 6:28pm
Quoting Zappa
And finally, my stop for now. I think this is giving it plenty of room. If it goes down that far, then I don't want this set-up anymore. {image}
They ain't gonna make it that easy for Euro bulls... stop outs all over the place IMO before a big run, if that's even going to happen... but 1.12-1.13 is surely possible in coming months.. 1.06 is very likely this week.
  • #231
  • Mar 22, 2015 11:56pm Mar 22, 2015 11:56pm
Quoting Zappa
And finally, my stop for now. I think this is giving it plenty of room. If it goes down that far, then I don't want this set-up anymore. {image}
One of my favorites right now... we'll see how it turns out... Man GBP NZD blew straight down toward 1.95!! So sick! Wish I had held my position, or even full position.. would have 50k more in my pocket.. haha
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  • #232
  • Mar 23, 2015 5:36am Mar 23, 2015 5:36am
Moving stop.
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  • #233
  • Mar 23, 2015 5:39am Mar 23, 2015 5:39am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} One of my favorites right now... we'll see how it turns out... Man GBP NZD blew straight down toward 1.95!! So sick! Wish I had held my position, or even full position.. would have 50k more in my pocket.. haha {image}
I told you not to get out so early!!

Oh well. I've done the same thing a million times before too.
  • #234
  • Mar 23, 2015 5:46am Mar 23, 2015 5:46am
Quoting Zappa
{quote} I told you not to get out so early!! Oh well. I've done the same thing a million times before too.
yep... cruel world
  • #235
  • Mar 23, 2015 5:52am Mar 23, 2015 5:52am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} yep... cruel world
Holding onto a winner is hard, because we fear that things will turn on us and profits will evaporate to losses. Trading plays off our emotions. Fearless, but cautious is probably the best way to be, IMO. Let it run where you think it will go, but protect yourself at the same time.
  • #236
  • Mar 23, 2015 5:54am Mar 23, 2015 5:54am
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Holding onto a winner is hard, because we fear that things will turn on us and profits will evaporate to losses. Trading plays off our emotions. Fearless, but cautious is probably the best way to be, IMO. Let it run where you think it will go, but protect yourself at the same time.
Sounds about right... you take a look at AUD.NZD?
  • #237
  • Mar 23, 2015 5:58am Mar 23, 2015 5:58am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Sounds about right... you take a look at AUD.NZD?
I have. It looks like it could have hit a bottom, but I personally would not enter long yet.
  • #238
  • Mar 23, 2015 6:11am Mar 23, 2015 6:11am
Quoting Zappa
{quote} I have. It looks like it could have hit a bottom, but I personally would not enter long yet.
fuck we should both be long EURGBP it looks so dam good..
  • #239
  • Mar 23, 2015 6:17am Mar 23, 2015 6:17am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} fuck we should both be long EURGBP it looks so dam good..
I'm telling you man, EURUSD is going places!
  • #240
  • Mar 23, 2015 6:36am Mar 23, 2015 6:36am
Quoting Zappa
{quote} I'm telling you man, EURUSD is going places!
Thinking its next stop is to take out 1.11-1.1150, stop people out hard and then probably bounce back lower, it's certainly not going to go in a straight line higher and there will be very good shorting opportunities intraday etc. I think EUR GBP is a better play, similar to how you were shorting GU but didn't short GBP NZD and that turned out to be way better..... I think the same will happen with EU longs rather than EURGBP longs.
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