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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #8,501
  • Mar 19, 2015 2:07pm Mar 19, 2015 2:07pm
lol .. untradable today. .. I am just watching.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #8,502
  • Mar 19, 2015 2:15pm Mar 19, 2015 2:15pm
Second input, seems good...
Attached Image
  • #8,503
  • Mar 19, 2015 2:16pm Mar 19, 2015 2:16pm
Quoting theXfiles
Second input, seems good... {image}
Well done.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #8,504
  • Mar 19, 2015 3:29pm Mar 19, 2015 3:29pm
so the target in GA was finally reached yesterday. My target for GN seems so far away though with all the ranging it's been doing. That pair is a monster though. When it wants to move it doesn't let up. Have no target in GJ though. Anyone seeing anything
  • #8,505
  • Edited 4:08pm Mar 19, 2015 3:56pm | Edited 4:08pm
If you look at GBP/USD, youll see that it's right now back to its opening price at the start of yesterday's trading day. I think that's what's holding the GBP/JPY up right now.

It'll be difficult at this point, I expected the pound to drop after breaching its support on multiple different currency pairs, but not all of them have done that. While pairs like GBP/NZD did, others GBP/JPY are remaining resilient.

Huh...every time my MT4 screen shows the GBP/JPY price trying to dip below 178 (ex: 177.970), the spreads widen a lot. And when it goes above 178, spreads remain normal or even slightly tighter than usual. Did that happen to anyone else in the past hour or so? Or is it just me?

Something seems wrong here...
  • #8,506
  • Mar 19, 2015 4:12pm Mar 19, 2015 4:12pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Strange.... {image}
Omg again! Nice one guys.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #8,507
  • Mar 19, 2015 4:15pm Mar 19, 2015 4:15pm
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} yep 1.06129 is crucial for me - may be with stop @ 1.0595 for 1.0950
  • #8,508
  • Mar 19, 2015 4:45pm Mar 19, 2015 4:45pm
Quoting Vermillion
If you look at GBP/USD, youll see that it's right now back to its opening price at the start of yesterday's trading day. I think that's what's holding the GBP/JPY up right now. It'll be difficult at this point, I expected the pound to drop after breaching its support on multiple different currency pairs, but not all of them have done that. While pairs like GBP/NZD did, others GBP/JPY are remaining resilient. Huh...every time my MT4 screen shows the GBP/JPY price trying to dip below 178 (ex: 177.970), the spreads widen a lot. And when it goes...
[/b]
mine was doing that too. i just assumed it was because of the end of day. but now you have me wondering
  • #8,509
  • Mar 19, 2015 4:55pm Mar 19, 2015 4:55pm
Quoting Vermillion
If you look at GBP/USD, youll see that it's right now back to its opening price at the start of yesterday's trading day. I think that's what's holding the GBP/JPY up right now. It'll be difficult at this point, I expected the pound to drop after breaching its support on multiple different currency pairs, but not all of them have done that. While pairs like GBP/NZD did, others GBP/JPY are remaining resilient. Huh...every time my MT4 screen shows the GBP/JPY price trying to dip below 178 (ex: 177.970), the spreads widen a lot. And when it goes above...
BTW my GN target is 1.956. At the moment it seems to be a slight consolidation at 1.99. might just get there tonight/tomorrow if it can break through
  • #8,510
  • Edited 7:19pm Mar 19, 2015 6:48pm | Edited 7:19pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...71#post8149371

Option 1 Breaks out of consolidation, falls into excellent support (ie 177.2) then travels to make new high or at least 185 - complex bearish or bullish structure

Option 2 Breaks out of consolidation, falls into first support then retests into the consolidation area, gets no where fast and EVENTUALLY over many hours or days gets so tired that it breaks down heavily. Simple break out/retest for a bearish structure.

Option 3 Breaks out of consolidation, falls into first support then retests into the consolidation area, gets no where fast and EVENTUALLY over many hours or days gets so tired that it breaks down heavily to next support (under the previous one) then retests up towards 182 - maybe 185 or higher. Double retest/complex bearish

................................................................

It's easy to view this as potentially very bullish in what was described here earlier as a "bullish flat". That view was always a possibility (as per option 1 above). But it was not a certainty. Such a path is dependent now on break up over 178.5/8 and in any case 179.5. And on the GU and UJ threads I note the consensus is for bullish - very bullish. The only question some are asking is "how high?".

Some view the bullish FOMC move as a first move up in a bullish trend. I view it in the context as a final move up in what could well develop into a bearish trend, or at least a medium term continuation of this bearish trend. However, views count for nothing until confirmed.

Conversely, failure to get up soon, or maybe even a flat-ish trading range in this area for a while longer could have it down quite strongly.

IMHO, Option 2 or 3 are now in progress. But I don't give a damn about being right or wrong - as long as it tells me/us where it's going. Either way, the alternatives now are starkly obvious - and the returns could be significant.

So it's back to watching 'closely'.
  • #8,511
  • Mar 19, 2015 7:10pm Mar 19, 2015 7:10pm
Quoting FX-Ray
Regarding E/U: 1.0610(!) is crucial for further sentiment. Schick, you got something there? Add: Area is 1.0630/595; daily low is 30ish, I wonder... {image}
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} yep 1.06129 is crucial for me - may be with stop @ 1.0595 for 1.0950
Lol ok, I mark it in chart.

Edit: Ah, is about mid of my Daily dropzone 1,0594 -1,06328. Lol Ray, are you doing the same like me? - Mine are sell prices, if yours buy, is +- the very same... Thinking of it, ofc you say buy, when looking for buy. I am looking for breakdown
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #8,512
  • Mar 19, 2015 7:57pm Mar 19, 2015 7:57pm
Quoting Mpt
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...71#post8149371 ..... IMHO, Option 2 or 3 are now in progress. But I don't give a damn about being right or wrong - as long as it tells me/us where it's going. Either way, the alternatives now are starkly obvious - and the returns could be significant. So it's back to watching 'closely'.
Quick question, Mpt. By option 2 & 3, do you think that we're currently in the "nowhere phase" and is waiting to move down to the next support (177) and possibly below? Not sure if I interpreted your messages correctly. In both cases (option 2 & 3), do you think the next support of 177 will hold?

GBP/NZD already moved down to its recent 2015 monthly low.
  • #8,513
  • Mar 19, 2015 8:08pm Mar 19, 2015 8:08pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Quick question, Mpt. By option 2 & 3, do you think that we're urrently in the "nowhere phase" and is waiting to move down to the next support (177) and possibly below? Not sure if I interpreted your messages correctly.
Fair point. That was written after it had bounced from 177.1/2 and folks interpreted that as a bottom destination. My point was that 177.2 was the first support after drop out from the 178 area and it's place/role was to only force a retest of the drop out area. The other interpretation was that the bounce, being aggressive, was the first move up in a new trend and we're simply in the retrace before a new thrust up. My take is that the fomc move was a correction.

It's kind of like when you lose channel support or some other breakout, the first and closest support will often retest into the breakout point or general area, fall back, consolidate then move on. This is the closet analogy to my argument.

Right or wrong, does that clarify my post?
  • #8,514
  • Mar 19, 2015 8:16pm Mar 19, 2015 8:16pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Fair point. That was written after it had bounced from 177.1/2 and folks interpreted that as a bottom destination. My point was that 177.2 was the first support after drop out from the 178 area and it's place/role was to only force a retest of the drop out area. The other interpretation was that the bounce, being aggressive, was the first move up in a new trend and we're simply in the retrace before a new thrust up. My take is that the fomc move was a correction. It's kind of like when you lose channel support or some other breakout, the...
Somewhat. I understand what you've said here, but I'm having a hard time identifying which part of the post refers to Option 2 and which part refers to Option 3.

So I take it that you're looking for a drop down to the "first" support of 177? Is the difference between option 2 & 3 about whether the price will bounce back from 177 and move on, or if it'll drop further before bouncing?

That is to say, you don't expect 178.10 to hold?

Edit: Corrected typo. The previous word "IF" is supposed to be "Is"

Edit 2: this is really taking a long time. IT'S BEEN OVER TEN HOURS and we're still in the same range.
  • #8,515
  • Mar 19, 2015 8:30pm Mar 19, 2015 8:30pm
Sometimes, a very simple was of looking at things is also to go back to we probably all started - or maybe that's how we trade. Moving averages. In this case the daily 200 simple.

Price has long found support there, or drops slightly below then recovers to turn it back into support. Such was the case in Sept 2014. Then again in November 2014. From mid Jan 2015 there were three attempts to clear below. Each time it bounced.

Three days ago, it fell just below then bounced, as we know. A few hours ago, it fell about 15 pips below. Right now it sits 10 pips above.

If it retains its support role, we go up again. If it breaks decisively this time, we head down - somewhere. Still using the moving average line, we meet the weekly 50 sma at or about 176.8 - but that was in the same place when we kept bouncing off the 200 daily. So on it goes.
  • #8,516
  • Mar 19, 2015 8:33pm Mar 19, 2015 8:33pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Somewhat. I understand what you've said here, but I'm having a hard time identifying which part of the post refers to Option 2 and which part refers to Option 3. So I take it that you're looking for a drop down to the "first" support of 177? Is the difference between option 2 & 3 about whether the price will bounce back from 177 and move on, or if it'll drop further before bouncing? That is to say, you don't expect 178.10 to hold? Edit: Corrected typo. The previous word "IF" is supposed to be "Is" Edit 2: this is really taking a long time....

Probably no hold at 178 after a few hours. The two options you reference allow for two possibilities - one goes further down below 177 then bounces again, maybe quite high. The other has it in steep decline to a very low point - probably sub 175. 177 was just the first staging point. Once/if it clears we move down.

But option 1 has it hold right here

That's why I say the possibilities here are clear and either way it may be rather lucrative.
  • #8,517
  • Mar 19, 2015 8:40pm Mar 19, 2015 8:40pm
Am holding quite lots of Geppys now.

Nikkei m15 pin wanna BO range. GU daily holds and wanna correct up to 1,491 to test monthly
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #8,518
  • Mar 19, 2015 8:41pm Mar 19, 2015 8:41pm
Quoting Mpt
.......If it breaks decisively this time, we head down - somewhere. Still using the moving average line, we meet the weekly 50 sma at or about 176.8 - but that was in the same place when we kept bouncing off the 200 daily. So on it goes.
Gotta love that uncertainty.

Quoting Mpt
{quote} Probably no hold at 178 after a few hours. The two options you reference allow for two possibilities - one goes further down below 177 then bounces gain, maybe quite high. The other has it in steep decline to a very low point - probably sub 175. 177 was just the first staging point. Once/if it clears we move down.
Yeah, that's my take too. I'm looking at 177 +/- 20 pips to be the next support if we go down. But given the sheer lack of movement & hesitation to go below 178.10, I'm looking more for on the lines of 175.70 +/- 15 pips as the primary MAJOR support. That price was tested 3,4 times in 2015 and always bounced back up.

Only thing is, the most recent attempt took longer than usual, so who knows. Expect a lot of fighting between bulls and bears on that one, if we get there. (unless bears just oversell it all the way down there instantly, in which case we'll see an immediate bounce worth at least a couple dozen pips. After that, who knows whether it'll go up or down.) Further down, I'm looking at 175 as the next support. It may break below 175 like you said, but who knows.

I just don't like 177 as the main support prior to a major movement back up; I just get an eerily feeling about that one.

Update: Oh, look at that. We finally broke 178.10, only for it to bounce right back up to 178.20.......fuck.
  • #8,519
  • Mar 19, 2015 8:53pm Mar 19, 2015 8:53pm
The one thing we do a lot of is wait. The daily candle will start to tell a story over the next few hours. On other threads there's heaps of group think going on right now. There's trend lines and boxes and fibs and candle patterns being rolled out. But the daily here will us where it goes - but maybe not for some hours.
  • #8,520
  • Mar 19, 2015 9:04pm Mar 19, 2015 9:04pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Gotta love that uncertainty. {quote} Yeah, that's my take too. I'm looking at 177 +/- 20 pips to be the next support if we go down. But given the sheer lack of movement & hesitation to go below 178.10, I'm looking more for on the lines of 175.70 +/- 15 pips as the primary MAJOR support. That price was tested 3,4 times in 2015 and always bounced back up. Only thing is, the most recent attempt took longer than usual, so who knows. Expect a lot of fighting between bulls and bears on that one, if we get there. (unless bears just oversell...

LOL. I'm indecisive and uncertain because to be otherwise is foolish. But one final comment here. The daily and shorter term supports are still working, but the bigger issue here still seems to be monthly supports. And they're starting to run out.
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