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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #18,161
  • Mar 18, 2015 4:08pm Mar 18, 2015 4:08pm
[quote=janpec1000;8137226]Important FOMC next week.
I told you about Bernanke's candle at July 2013. Lesson to learn from FOMC minutes, never trade them . It cost me money to learn it.
  • #18,162
  • Mar 18, 2015 4:20pm Mar 18, 2015 4:20pm
Quoting infinitus
EU short term distribution the divisor between bull and bear seems to be the 0555 level beyond 060 it may get outright bullish, especially with break of 0666 area {image}

that distribution had all the info in it
  • #18,163
  • Mar 18, 2015 4:28pm Mar 18, 2015 4:28pm
I think that the FOMC infos were leaked beforehand, maybe days in advance.

Look at the chart: it has no traces of indecision. There was outright accumulation in the 0550 to 0640 area.

And at the time of the announcements there was no nervous behaviour to both sides. For some big addresses the direction was clear, regardless what they touted to the public beforehand
  • #18,164
  • Mar 18, 2015 4:52pm Mar 18, 2015 4:52pm
EU

volume profiles
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mm.png Size: 126 KB
  • #18,165
  • Mar 18, 2015 5:14pm Mar 18, 2015 5:14pm
nice

http://ewminteractive.com/wish-you-w...ith-usd-index/
  • #18,166
  • Mar 18, 2015 7:03pm Mar 18, 2015 7:03pm
EURUSD, Short @ 1.0845, (1 Lot/10-K-Acc.)
  • #18,167
  • Mar 19, 2015 1:34am Mar 19, 2015 1:34am
Sentiment Index

26% EUR bulls

61% DXY bulls

nice change....
  • #18,168
  • Edited 2:09am Mar 19, 2015 1:41am | Edited 2:09am
Quoting infinitus
Sentiment Index 26% EUR bulls 61% DXY bulls nice change....

Infinitus!

Have you changed your positions to BULL euro?
We ae on track with the rate hike. There will be no rate hike in june
  • #18,169
  • Mar 19, 2015 1:55am Mar 19, 2015 1:55am
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
Here Is Why The Fed Can't Hike Rates By Even 0.25%
  • #18,170
  • Mar 19, 2015 2:09am Mar 19, 2015 2:09am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Infinitius! Have you changed your positions to BULL euro?

Hi Marianne,

I try to assess the situation.

From a fib point of view, I miss some downside in some counts.

From a fundamental view, it seems logical, that at some point the FED may eventually hike rates. But in the meantime, with yesterdays in my view doveish stance, it would not surprise me to see the USD weaken for some time now.

My ideal scenario played for a move higher yesterday, into the 0770 range, then more down. Since 0770 I am sidelined.

So far we have only 3 waves up from the very low.

The movement from the 1.10x high yesterday so far is 3 waves down. If the recent wave down is kind of a small wave 4 in an impulse up, it should turn now. Retracement since the high is fib-wise inline with a wave 4 retracement.Has retraced nearly 50% so far. It would race my eyebrows, when we would retrace in the 61.8% region. That would be not normal for a wave 4.

Looking at the volume profiles, the wave from the 1.15x or so was done without leaving much of volume on the road. So the now resistance between roughly 1.12 to 1.15 is prone to a re-test. But this can be done in a very choppy and time consuming manner. After months and months of nearly unidirectional movement (down) market may try to build an equilibrium here between the low and 1.15 for a while.

For me it is very crucial now, how deep the retracement from the 1.10x high will go.


Best to you and be careful
  • #18,171
  • Mar 19, 2015 2:14am Mar 19, 2015 2:14am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Infinitus! Have you changed your positions to BULL euro? We ae on track with the rate hike. There will be no rate hike in june

well, from the recent price action it seems, that price is developing the 3rd leg down from the 1.10 top.

This can be a wave A of a zigzag.

Maybe we are later able to count the movement since the very low as ABC-flat (now in wave B down).

This wave B down may have an ideal target of between roughly 1.06 and 1.05
  • #18,172
  • Edited 5:48am Mar 19, 2015 3:13am | Edited 5:48am
Quoting infinitus
Sentiment Index 26% EUR bulls 61% DXY bulls nice change....
In AU, they have fullfilled FOMC's movement. EU the same?
Edit: Daily GAP closed in EU .
  • #18,173
  • Mar 19, 2015 5:00am Mar 19, 2015 5:00am
Quoting infinitus
I think that the FOMC infos were leaked beforehand, maybe days in advance. Look at the chart: it has no traces of indecision. There was outright accumulation in the 0550 to 0640 area. And at the time of the announcements there was no nervous behaviour to both sides. For some big addresses the direction was clear, regardless what they touted to the public beforehand
Absolutely agree. Was it due to leak, its possible for sure.
  • #18,174
  • Mar 19, 2015 5:02am Mar 19, 2015 5:02am
[quote=Lavanda;8147833]
Quoting janpec1000
Important FOMC next week. I told you about Bernanke's candle at July 2013. Lesson to learn from FOMC minutes, never trade them . It cost me money to learn it.
My trading approach on FOMC is wait for move, and then trade scalps after the move in general where bigger positions come in. But for that it has to be along with my initial plan of view, as this was going in wrong way i stayed out.
  • #18,175
  • Mar 19, 2015 7:48am Mar 19, 2015 7:48am
Some reading.

Ukraine Declares Resumption of War Against Donbass

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/...r-donbass.html

Best,
D.P.

P.S. How do you think what they are gonna do next?
Hunting High and Low
  • #18,176
  • Mar 19, 2015 8:15am Mar 19, 2015 8:15am
Quoting Forexcube
EURUSD, Short @ 1.0845, (1 Lot/10-K-Acc.)
#18'166

Exit @ 1.0676, + 169
Profit: 1'690$
  • #18,177
  • Mar 19, 2015 8:49am Mar 19, 2015 8:49am
Quoting Forexcube
EURUSD, Short @ 1.0655 (1 Lot/10-K-Account)
#18'140

Exit @ 1'0654, +1
  • #18,178
  • Mar 19, 2015 11:41am Mar 19, 2015 11:41am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Marianne, I try to assess the situation. From a fib point of view, I miss some downside in some counts. From a fundamental view, it seems logical, that at some point the FED may eventually hike rates. But in the meantime, with yesterdays in my view doveish stance, it would not surprise me to see the USD weaken for some time now. My ideal scenario played for a move higher yesterday, into the 0770 range, then more down. Since 0770 I am sidelined. So far we have only 3 waves up from the very low. The movement from the 1.10x high yesterday...

I agree with you in your way of thinking that we are missing one leg down still. Myself I have mostly been in the side position and uncertain abouth the direction. Yday the FED said the the strong USD was hurting the american economy. As we see everday the US figures are coming weaker. How long will they sit and watch the USD become stronger withouth doing something to stop it. This is why I do not theink it will be a rate hike in the US. Like the euro had to come down due to fudamental reasons I think the US have to come down too. I have a belif that it exists som agreement between the FED and the ECB to weaken the both currencies at different times. Like now the FED supports the ECB to help the Eurosone to get stronger. The picture is starting to change now and soon the USD needs to be weakened.

I think things can change. The diffecult thing is the QE in the eurosone how much it effects the total daily volume. Apart from that it could be the time for a change soon in the direction.
The other qestion for is what happened yesterday. Was it only a pump and dump or was it big players changing their direction
  • #18,179
  • Mar 19, 2015 11:58am Mar 19, 2015 11:58am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} I agree with you in your way of thinking that we are missing one leg down still. Myself I have mostly been in the side position and uncertain abouth the direction. Yday the FED said the the strong USD was hurting the american economy. As we see everday the US figures are coming weaker. How long will they sit and watch the USD become stronger withouth doing something to stop it. This is why I do not theink it will be a rate hike in the US. Like the euro had to come down due to fudamental reasons I think the US have to come down too. I have...
In regards to some agrement i dont think there is some agreement, there is FULL agreement. With reserve currency you need to watch counterpart currencies at all times, so therefore its all one big cabal. As for rate hikes...they will come, if you think otherwise you will face very bad fundamental base on your trading decisions for next 6 months. Rate hikes are printed in FED documents (as much as 3% in 2 years), in their speeches (September), and especailly in MMs of market. Look what happened yesterday. FED flew past June hike, and EU rallied on most likely short covering from MMs that were expecting June hike. This means that there is obviously serious amount of pressure going in that way. If you dont believe hikes are coming you have to face it you are going against market, no matter if FED is bluffing or not.
  • #18,180
  • Mar 19, 2015 12:16pm Mar 19, 2015 12:16pm
The euro will weakend even more till 0.9876 (EURUSD), so also the GBPUSD ~1.3775
The signal yesterday was the EMA21 daily touch down (auto correction) - (likewise by discarding short traders with medium and long term stop losses at all once - greetings from largest investors' shark pool) so that the bigger downside movement could go further on.
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