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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #18,121
  • Mar 16, 2015 8:32pm Mar 16, 2015 8:32pm
Quoting infinitus
EU short term {image}
Hello, I let you one video from Kilian Jornet, the best Mountain Runner in the world. Matterhorn Record.Amazing.I started to do Mountain Running some years ago, but I let it as I was started suffering for my life (and small mountains in my area), and one knee broken.

Inserted Video
  • #18,122
  • Mar 17, 2015 2:07am Mar 17, 2015 2:07am
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} Hello, I let you one video from Kilian Jornet, the best Mountain Runner in the world. Matterhorn Record.Amazing.I started to do Mountain Running some years ago, but I let it as I was started suffering for my life (and small mountains in my area), and one knee broken. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDV1j0SZMZI
Hi Lavanda,

sorry to hear that - hope your knee is OK again

Thanks for the video
  • #18,123
  • Mar 17, 2015 2:39am Mar 17, 2015 2:39am
closely watching the base channel now

break of this can mean, that a bottom is in


would leave many shorts with pants down

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_4 Hours_snapshot.png Size: 44 KB



I am back in 7 hours or so. Showtime


Snow is falling down - already 50-60 cm new snow
  • #18,124
  • Mar 17, 2015 2:48am Mar 17, 2015 2:48am
EU

1h TF
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_Hourly_snapshot.png Size: 42 KB
  • #18,125
  • Mar 17, 2015 3:45am Mar 17, 2015 3:45am
Quoting infinitus
closely watching the base channel now break of this can mean, that a bottom is in would leave many shorts with pants down {image} I am back in 7 hours or so. Showtime Snow is falling down - already 50-60 cm new snow
Hmmmmm. Main problem with this being a bottom is it has LL. This means that if this is temporary bottom it will likely create overshoot of price into HH and then come down at short time, at least thats what usually happens. LL bottoms even though this structure has plenty of buying going on very rarely happens, if you would pick historically probably less than 1:20 time.
If anything would had been set technically it would need to be done today, which is rather unimportant actually, becouse anything that will be done tomorrow on FOMC would override it/or add onto it properly. So if tomorrows FOMC dissapoints then this could be temporary but rare bottom to happen.
Just wanted to chip my opinion in, not saying you are going to be wrong, just that technically very rarely such structure actually becomes bottom.

Example:
http://prntscr.com/6htiyx
  • #18,126
  • Mar 17, 2015 3:55am Mar 17, 2015 3:55am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Hmmmmm. Main problem with this being a bottom is it has LL. This means that if this is temporary bottom it will likely create overshoot of price into HH and then come down at short time, at least thats what usually happens. LL bottoms even though this structure has plenty of buying going on very rarely happens, if you would pick historically probably less than 1:20 time. If anything would had been set technically it would need to be done today, which is rather unimportant actually, becouse anything that will be done tomorrow on FOMC would...

Hi Jan,

quick answer out of the cable car:

you are surly right. We can see, that the price is once again rejected at the base channels line.

My two scenarios I am mainly playing:

a) we are in a wave 4 up, which is either finished now or still developing. Can reach as high as around 0770, but more likely 0664

b) we are already down in a wave 5, which unfolds as ending diagonal. In this ending diagonal we had the wave 1 zigzag, now in wave 2 up (maybe already finished). This can drag us down towards parity or somewhere in the 03x vicinity
  • #18,127
  • Mar 17, 2015 8:21am Mar 17, 2015 8:21am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Jan, quick answer out of the cable car: you are surly right. We can see, that the price is once again rejected at the base channels line. My two scenarios I am mainly playing: a) we are in a wave 4 up, which is either finished now or still developing. Can reach as high as around 0770, but more likely 0664 b) we are already down in a wave 5, which unfolds as ending diagonal. In this ending diagonal we had the wave 1 zigzag, now in wave 2 up (maybe already finished). This can drag us down towards parity or somewhere in the 03x vicinity
Yes A scenario would go along with mine of HH overshot. And it is in development looks like.
In any case its a no trade situation now for me. Waiting till tomorrow FOMC.
  • #18,128
  • Mar 17, 2015 9:26am Mar 17, 2015 9:26am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} But I have not made up my mind regarding the value of the Rubel and what to expect over the course of the next years........
Correct, Marcus. For now you should be still awaiting and watching for .

D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #18,129
  • Mar 17, 2015 10:31am Mar 17, 2015 10:31am
ECB’s Quantitative Easing (QE) and Velocity

Read more at: http://ewminteractive.com/ecbs-quantitative-easing-qe-and-velocity/ | EWM Interactive




as I have said for years.....
  • #18,130
  • Mar 17, 2015 11:54am Mar 17, 2015 11:54am
Quoting infinitus
ECBs Quantitative Easing (QE) and Velocity Read more at: http://ewminteractive.com/ecbs-quantitative-easing-qe-and-velocity/ | EWM Interactive as I have said for years.....
The Economy theory about inflation and monetary mass (M1,M2,M3) is planned as there is on factor,called velocity of money, that is fixed. One X1, for example, that remains steady. So on, the Theory doesn't give answers about what happens when velocity of money change dramatically,as can happens in one crisis, where the consumers increase their marginal intencion to save, and decrease their marginal factor to consume. Or in another words, with the same amount of money, how much I am going to spend and how much I am going to save. This can change of course in one crisis, when the fear is all around, and your mentality about spend can change.
It changes of course in the banks, wich have had problems. The old theory didn't contemplate about financial crisis, where Banks do not want to move money and credits. Old theory said that if the costumers where going to increase their marginal ability to save, Banks will move the money.

But when new factors arrive to the world, Theory could change. We have been in the biggest financial crisis since 1929's crack. So, it would be nice to study the new X1 factor.

Orthodoxs, will say, that when the financial crisis (if) will be over, velocity will come back to the old velocity, so a big implosion of money and inflacion would come, because the money is in the system.
  • #18,131
  • Mar 17, 2015 12:37pm Mar 17, 2015 12:37pm
Quoting infinitus
EU 1h TF {image}

btw;

lower target zone hit by the pip
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_Hourly_snapshot.png Size: 48 KB
  • #18,132
  • Mar 17, 2015 1:45pm Mar 17, 2015 1:45pm
Stratfor "revelations". Extractions from their speech.

Inserted Video


Listen to what they are saying.

Full speech is at
Inserted Video


Best,
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #18,133
  • Mar 17, 2015 3:02pm Mar 17, 2015 3:02pm
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} We have been in the biggest financial crisis since 1929's crack. So, it would be nice to study the new X1 factor. Orthodoxs, will say, that when the financial crisis (if) will be over, velocity will come back to the old velocity, so a big implosion of money and inflacion would come, because the money is in the system.

One of the most important conclusions!

That is THE reason, why most CB inteventions leadat some point to rampant inflation. They tighten far too late.....-
  • #18,134
  • Mar 17, 2015 3:03pm Mar 17, 2015 3:03pm
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
Stratfor "revelations". Extractions from their speech. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azP2FOpbEYE Listen to what they are saying. Full speech is at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeLu_yyz3tc Best, D.P.

Thank you very much - have to hear it later, because have really bad Internet speed here in Italy
  • #18,135
  • Mar 17, 2015 3:20pm Mar 17, 2015 3:20pm
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
Stratfor "revelations". Extractions from their speech. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azP2FOpbEYE Listen to what they are saying. Full speech is at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeLu_yyz3tc Best, D.P.
Thank you , good info!!!
  • #18,136
  • Mar 17, 2015 3:37pm Mar 17, 2015 3:37pm
Goldman seem to have sold enough expensive stuff to their customers..........


switching fro bullish to bearish


remember: who was it who gave SP500 target of 2150?
  • #18,137
  • Mar 18, 2015 1:57am Mar 18, 2015 1:57am
Fairly big chance, that today's FED decision will again be leaked to the ones who do Gods work. Isn't it?

Just reminder what happened last time:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...ederal-reserve
  • #18,138
  • Edited 7:34am Mar 18, 2015 7:18am | Edited 7:34am
Quoting infinitus
Fairly big chance, that today's FED decision will again be leaked to the ones who do Gods work. Isn't it? Just reminder what happened last time: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...ederal-reserve
Most likely this time is not needed. 2007 FED events were "unexpected" therefore leak was part of thing to happen. This time rate hike is already in air, so basically all prepositioning and leaking will be done after todays FOMC if they deliver. They wont tell directly ofcourse as CBs never do.
  • #18,139
  • Mar 18, 2015 8:33am Mar 18, 2015 8:33am
Why Putin Did Not Send the Army into Donbass

http://russia-insider.com/en/2015/03/17/4596

Best,
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #18,140
  • Mar 18, 2015 11:53am Mar 18, 2015 11:53am
EURUSD, Short @ 1.0655 (1 Lot/10-K-Account)
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