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  • #4,481
  • Mar 17, 2015 7:06am Mar 17, 2015 7:06am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Another nice trade henry keep it going, good to see you're trading just after NYO which I think is key to catching the start of some good moves like you've done. Just one word of warning I see you've got the TTindy and my CSM sitting on a daily chart, just be careful as my CSM will give you the strongest weakest of the timechart its sitting on so in this case the daily chart. Mind you mine doesn't agree with yours as mine on the daily chart has EUR bottom and USD top??? Anyways great trading....
I am using CSW 1min scapler with oneminma set to 200 on a daily chart to cross reference with TTindy. I am not aware of it is timechart based. It would be greatly appreciated if you can introduce the underlying logic about CSW.
  • #4,482
  • Mar 17, 2015 7:49am Mar 17, 2015 7:49am
got in EC
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update: it was a quick loser. please comment if it is aligned with rules or anything I did not notice.
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  • #4,483
  • Edited 9:53am Mar 17, 2015 8:37am | Edited 9:53am
Quoting henryloving
got in EC {image} {image} update: it was a quick loser. please comment if it is aligned with rules or anything I did not notice. {image}
Maybe this will help. I do not know enough about the CCI to advise you how to read it, Mr Packham should be able to tell you how to identify the Market cycle using the CCI.
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Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #4,484
  • Mar 17, 2015 8:48am Mar 17, 2015 8:48am
Quoting dee50
{quote} The rules do not protect you from the bigger picture, maybe this will help. I do not know enough about the CCI to advise you how to read it, Mr Packham should be able to tell you how to identify the Market cycle using the CCI. {image}
Hi Dee50,

thanks for the comments. so you are saying it is already 3rd leg, I joined the party too late? But from ADR point view, 150 pips average per day, it has run 100 pips, there is still the room to go.

how would you deal with this case? just skip?
  • #4,485
  • Mar 17, 2015 8:49am Mar 17, 2015 8:49am
Quoting henryloving
got in EC {image} {image} update: it was a quick loser. please comment if it is aligned with rules or anything I did not notice. {image}
Hi Henry

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Was it really an ABC with higher lows, from what I can see when price went below about 1.3583 that cycle was broken. Not to say it wouldn't go up but I'd wait for an attempt to go lower to fail. That would give you a small abc back t trend.

Were all the other eur pairs suggesting strength? Yes they were all above ma's but had given double tops or lower highs.

So perhaps debatable whether it was a system trade.
  • #4,486
  • Mar 17, 2015 9:09am Mar 17, 2015 9:09am
gbp/aud is gonna climb right back up to daily pivot . . .
  • #4,487
  • Mar 17, 2015 9:52am Mar 17, 2015 9:52am
Quoting henryloving
{quote} Hi Dee50, thanks for the comments. so you are saying it is already 3rd leg, I joined the party too late? But from ADR point view, 150 pips average per day, it has run 100 pips, there is still the room to go. how would you deal with this case? just skip?
Vantage makes a good point. was it really a good ABC long. No. It really was very indistinct. Also, I have had a quick look back and didn't Mr Packham say something about the CCI being over 100 or has that changed?

Seeing that it was the 3rd leg on a HTF would certainly have made me wait for a pullback on the HTF before looking for an entry on the 1 minute. And the ADR is exactly that, "Average" Daily Range, at the time of your entry it had gone 108 pips which was 72% of the ADR another reason to wait for a more defined entry point because price will slow down as it comes to the top of its range.

But ultimately, a quick look at the 5 min should have made you hesitate and think twice about your entry.

The TTIndy shows the readings for 5min and 1min, and yet I rarely see any of you referring to what you are seeing on the 5 min charts before you take entries??? You all compare the 5min and 1min TTIndy readings, but not the charts!!
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #4,488
  • Mar 17, 2015 10:02am Mar 17, 2015 10:02am
Quoting dee50
{quote} Vantage makes a good point. was it really a good ABC long. No. It really was very indistinct. Also, I have had a quick look back and didn't Mr Packham say something about the CCI being over 100 or has that changed? Seeing that it was the 3rd leg on a HTF would certainly have made me wait for a pullback on the HTF before looking for an entry on the 1 minute. And the ADR is exactly that, "Average" Daily Range, at the time of your entry it had gone 108 pips which was 72% of the ADR another reason to wait for a more defined entry point because...

I see your point. I analyzed 1 hour chart to see if there is obvious resistance or support. I also watched 5 min chart before entering but I just want 5 min candle above the ma to agree with 1min. will think more about integrating 5 min chart into the system.

for CCI over 100, I am not sure what you are referring to. Maybe Mr. Clive can give some hints.

Thanks again for your comments. it really helps.
  • #4,489
  • Mar 17, 2015 10:03am Mar 17, 2015 10:03am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Hi Henry Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Was it really an ABC with higher lows, from what I can see when price went below about 1.3583 that cycle was broken. Not to say it wouldn't go up but I'd wait for an attempt to go lower to fail. That would give you a small abc back t trend. Were all the other eur pairs suggesting strength? Yes they were all above ma's but had given double tops or lower highs. So perhaps debatable whether it was a system trade.

Hi Vantage,

I have difficulties in catching your points. would appreciate very much if you make a chart to elaborate.

Many thanks in advance.
  • #4,490
  • Mar 17, 2015 4:44pm Mar 17, 2015 4:44pm
Quoting henryloving
got in EC {image} {image} update: it was a quick loser. please comment if it is aligned with rules or anything I did not notice. {image}

Hi henry

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that was a good entry in my book just a tad unlucky. Have a look at the EURCAD chart below Henrys trade(red arrow) is the only loser out of 6 CCI signals , now thats what I call bad luck...... Even the one just after was a winner even though many wouldn't take it as a LL buy, not too clever but the 100lwma is still sloping up nicely...

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But the 4 earlier signals were all winners and without doubt all qualifiers too, so thats just the way it goes Henry not all good signals are going to work we will still have losers, but assume you had taken all the earlier signals and had 4 winners, then your losing trade wouldn't of been so bad would it??? maybe theres a lesson there to take all the signals and not try to cherry pick the best ones??? Theres not many losing CCI signals in a strong trender.

One thing that I will say and this is just a general observation and something that Martin drills into me everytime we speak. The TTindy can at times get us in a bit too late and that the more reliable and profitable trades happen a lot earlier in the trend, as this chart proves.. maybe we should only take the earlier signals in the move and leave the later ones alone??? maybe we should make more effort to hit those CCI signals just after the 100lwma changes slope colours???

Thats one of the reasons I've been looking at the 120fsma to try and catch those earlier CCI signals. Before I started this thread I was only trading just after a 15 min CCI signal and taking the first 2 CCI signals, but then I replaced it with the 100lwma and then brought in the TTindy measuring the slopes...But i do believe the earlier cci signals are more reliable and lead to bigger RR winners...

Something to think about as usual...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #4,491
  • Mar 17, 2015 5:43pm Mar 17, 2015 5:43pm
Quoting henryloving
{quote} I see your point. I analyzed 1 hour chart to see if there is obvious resistance or support. I also watched 5 min chart before entering but I just want 5 min candle above the ma to agree with 1min. will think more about integrating 5 min chart into the system. for CCI over 100, I am not sure what you are referring to. Maybe Mr. Clive can give some hints. Thanks again for your comments. it really helps.
Hi Dee50,

in yesterday NY session, there was another EA signal. It was second leg in 5min chart, will it make you more comfortable for the entry?

1min chart
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5min chart
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  • #4,492
  • Mar 17, 2015 5:47pm Mar 17, 2015 5:47pm
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Hi henry I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that was a good entry in my book just a tad unlucky. Have a look at the EURCAD chart below Henrys trade(red arrow) is the only loser out of 6 CCI signals , now thats what I call bad luck...... Even the one just after was a winner even though many wouldn't take it as a LL buy, not too clever but the 100lwma is still sloping up nicely... {image} But the 4 earlier signals were all winners and without doubt all qualifiers too, so thats just the way it goes Henry not all good signals are going...

Thanks Clive. I was thinking to take first or second CCI signal. However, if London trend well and we trade in the London direction in NY session, CCI signal will be late in the party. how to deal this case?

There is an option to trade trend reversal against London. It will against 5min trend. I have not tried before. would like to hear more advice.
  • #4,493
  • Edited 2:09am Mar 18, 2015 12:10am | Edited 2:09am
Quoting henryloving
{quote} Hi Vantage, I have difficulties in catching your points. would appreciate very much if you make a chart to elaborate. Many thanks in advance.
Hi Henry

This is a different chart but same point. Earlier this morning a series of higher lows, higher highs. There is a dble btm at 1.9374 see left arrow up. This fails and gives a lower high, left arrow down. So your HH, HL i.e. abc cycle is broken, price moving below 1.9374 the last B point in move up. This was the same position in your trade the low point B in the abc had been broken.

Price bottoms out and of course there will be times when this won't matter (a failed abc move) and price will carry on up. I would suggest only trying trades against abc flow when trend and TT top 8 clearly show strength/weakness across the board. It has been noted many times on this thread to take care around failed abc moves as a first problem sign.

I then said wait for an attempt to go lower to fail to give a small abc back to trend. See the right arrow down the LH attempt to go lower fails. Now the right arrow up is now a C point in a small abc back into trend.

Different chart to your trade but exactly the same set up. You are working on 1 min flow, so stops can be easily taken out if the flow is running against you. Consider waiting for flow to resume in your direction.

You can then look at other pairs to see if they are also topping or suggesting move up.
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  • #4,494
  • Mar 18, 2015 7:29am Mar 18, 2015 7:29am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Hi Henry This is a different chart but same point. Earlier this morning a series of higher lows, higher highs. There is a dble btm at 1.9374 see left arrow up. This fails and gives a lower high, left arrow down. So your HH, HL i.e. abc cycle is broken, price moving below 1.9374 the last B point in move up. This was the same position in your trade the low point B in the abc had been broken. Price bottoms out and of course there will be times when this won't matter (a failed abc move) and price will carry on up. I would suggest only trying...
Thanks much, Vantage. I see your points. very impressed by your chart analysis. I need learn more on this.
  • #4,495
  • Mar 18, 2015 7:50am Mar 18, 2015 7:50am
Quoting henryloving
{quote} Hi Dee50, in yesterday NY session, there was another EA signal. It was second leg in 5min chart, will it make you more comfortable for the entry? 1min chart {image} 5min chart {image}
Sorry Henry, you posted after I had shut down and I did not think to check this morning. The attached should answer your question.
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Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #4,496
  • Edited 8:33am Mar 18, 2015 8:09am | Edited 8:33am
got in EJ, this time I checked 5 min chart, should be fine, but would like to hear from Dee50
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update: it was a quick loss. any comments ?

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  • #4,497
  • Mar 18, 2015 8:30am Mar 18, 2015 8:30am
Quoting henryloving
got in EJ, this time I checked 5 min chart, should be fine, but would like to hear from Dee50 {image} {image}
Can you explain why you entered there!! I just want to understand your reasoning.
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Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #4,498
  • Mar 18, 2015 8:41am Mar 18, 2015 8:41am
Quoting dee50
{quote} Can you explain why you entered there!! I just want to understand your reasoning. {image}
from 5min chart, it broke 128.40 and no obvious support below. it had a small pullback in 1min chart and it was a CCI signal from 1min chart. EJ was at 4th slot of TTindy and greater than 30 so I entered.
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  • #4,499
  • Mar 18, 2015 8:54am Mar 18, 2015 8:54am
henry,

ej on 5min chart that you posted looks to be "ranging" more than "trending" up OR down (at the time frame shown in your chart). price is on both sides of your MA multiple times on the chart (at least 6 times). perhaps this isn't a safe entry no matter what the TTindi shows at that time?

jason
  • #4,500
  • Mar 18, 2015 9:09am Mar 18, 2015 9:09am
Quoting bapakjason
henry, ej on 5min chart that you posted looks to be "ranging" more than "trending" up OR down (at the time frame shown in your chart). price is on both sides of your MA multiple times on the chart (at least 6 times). perhaps this isn't a safe entry no matter what the TTindi shows at that time? jason
Hi Jason,

thanks for your comment.

but there is always a start of trend from ranging. We are in a new market open, fresh money will kick in so there is a good chance it will be trending esp. when TTidny is greater than 30. I think this is the philosophy behind this method.
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