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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #133,961
  • Mar 16, 2015 11:32am Mar 16, 2015 11:32am
Quoting Adhavan
{quote} Hi Zeven, We have dual strong Daily BEOVB, but pa right near to weekly ppz.. so, as my view waiting to confirm the entry whether it is buy or sell.. Adhavan {image}
Yep there is weekly PPZ, i'm trying to play it on retrace though (on smaller TF).
Eur/usd looks bearish to me thus the idea to short E/J on the retrace. (they're strongly correlated on Daily basis).

However there is BoJ conference and monetary statement coming in the morning so not so sure about this pair anyway.

i'll sit and watch.
  • #133,962
  • Mar 16, 2015 8:44pm Mar 16, 2015 8:44pm
Was hoping for a BEOB to breakthrough 1152 before doing a short on this one. What do you guys think?

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  • #133,963
  • Mar 17, 2015 5:05am Mar 17, 2015 5:05am
I know it's mainly a Fx forum, but is there anybody here that is watching UK100(FTSE).
There is quite strong Res @ 6858 area, waiting for PA over there.

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  • #133,964
  • Mar 17, 2015 8:23am Mar 17, 2015 8:23am
Quoting ziven78
I know it's mainly a Fx forum, but is there anybody here that is watching UK100(FTSE). There is quite strong Res @ 6858 area, waiting for PA over there. {image}
it's great that you are watching more markets then just FX. I can't recommend that enough. I watch 3000 equities along side with the roughly 80 or so FX pairs I keep an eye on

Great stuff Ziv

Sorry i've been away for a bit all my GF ended up having emergency surgery last week. Surgery went well, and She's recovering now and i'll be plugging back in this week

I have been keeping up with the posts though

Mike
  • #133,965
  • Mar 17, 2015 8:28am Mar 17, 2015 8:28am
here was my missed entry on the gbp/chf

I missed my entry by a few pips friday and then we got a weekly pin where I put back in my entry which was also missed. This has happened to me an extra lot this year but as i was just explaining to the group this is just trading. It is what it is

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  • #133,966
  • Mar 17, 2015 8:40am Mar 17, 2015 8:40am
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} it's great that you are watching more markets then just FX. I can't recommend that enough. I watch 3000 equities along side with the roughly 80 or so FX pairs I keep an eye on Great stuff Ziv Sorry i've been away for a bit all my GF ended up having emergency surgery last week. Surgery went well, and She's recovering now and i'll be plugging back in this week I have been keeping up with the posts though Mike
Thx, good to have you back here Mike.
I'm glad everything is getting better with your GF.
  • #133,967
  • Mar 17, 2015 10:12am Mar 17, 2015 10:12am
Quoting mbqb11
here was my missed entry on the gbp/chf I missed my entry by a few pips friday and then we got a weekly pin where I put back in my entry which was also missed. This has happened to me an extra lot this year but as i was just explaining to the group this is just trading. It is what it is {image} {image}


I'm in as well - good to be back to business.
Entry on the retrace to the 150EMA / 1.49 RN of the W1 pinbar, risk reduced by 50% now, and currently watching price reaction to 1.4780-1.4750.

All the best for you and your girlfriend !

take care
Slow & steady
  • #133,968
  • Mar 17, 2015 5:40pm Mar 17, 2015 5:40pm
Quoting mbqb11
here was my missed entry on the gbp/chf I missed my entry by a few pips friday and then we got a weekly pin where I put back in my entry which was also missed. This has happened to me an extra lot this year but as i was just explaining to the group this is just trading. It is what it is {image} {image}
Yo Mike

You maybe considering entering now on a break of that pin?

Cheers
  • #133,969
  • Mar 17, 2015 5:45pm Mar 17, 2015 5:45pm
Quoting gasgas
{quote} Yo Mike You maybe considering entering now on a break of that pin? Cheers
Hey GG

Not for me. In the case of that bar the only entry that makes sense in my book is the retrace entry to the boxed area. That's the key confluence of that trade that allows for a low risk entry. I'm done with this one now personally

Hope that helps
Mike
  • #133,970
  • Mar 17, 2015 5:54pm Mar 17, 2015 5:54pm
Hi,

Anybody have look this pair??

Dual Retracement (TL and Weekly PPZ) with BRN 7200 rejection.. I couldn't say which grade this trade, i expect advice form experts here..

Adhavan
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  • #133,971
  • Mar 18, 2015 1:24pm Mar 18, 2015 1:24pm
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} Hey GG Not for me. In the case of that bar the only entry that makes sense in my book is the retrace entry to the boxed area. That's the key confluence of that trade that allows for a low risk entry. I'm done with this one now personally Hope that helps Mike
Sir Mike thank you for all the information again. May I just clarify what you mean with retrace entry to the boxed area? Did you mean you will enter short position when price comes back to 1.5000 SR level? I see you have a sell limit order around that area but I think it was not triggered and now price has plumetted down 200 pips.

Did I also understand it correctly that you preferred to trade this at the retrace and not at break of the pin because trading from the break of the weekly pin gives us a big stop loss?

Also, if price came back to 1.500 is this considered an A trade? All a beginner's eyes like mine can see is that this is a huge W1 pinbar at a good SR but against the 1 month uptrend.

Thanks for helping in advance!

P.S. just trying out uploading a screenshot.
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  • #133,972
  • Mar 18, 2015 2:59pm Mar 18, 2015 2:59pm
Followup question: Is a retrace, pullback and retest the same in your dictionary?
  • #133,973
  • Mar 19, 2015 12:53am Mar 19, 2015 12:53am
Quoting Wes21
{quote} Sir Mike thank you for all the information again. May I just clarify what you mean with retrace entry to the boxed area? Did you mean you will enter short position when price comes back to 1.5000 SR level? I see you have a sell limit order around that area but I think it was not triggered and now price has plumetted down 200 pips. Did I also understand it correctly that you preferred to trade this at the retrace and not at break of the pin because trading from the break of the weekly pin gives us a big stop loss? Also, if price came back...
Hey Wes

Yes that's correct I had a sell just below the BRN of 1.5 once the pinbar was formed. Actually as I said I had it after price closed under the BRN on 3/12. But I reput that order in after the weekly pin was formed. Meaning that order was placed in on Sundays open. Yes price just missed my order on both and took off without me. Such is the case sometimes and that's trading.

Trading a break of the pin doesn't make sense in terms of confluence not stop loss size. Stop loss is all relative to your position size so big stop losses don't matter to me because i'm always adjusting my risk based on my stop loss size.

This trade was a bit more advanced for a new trader looking to trade say a break of a pinbar. It's ok your eye isn't trained for that yet. I try to mix up in the public thread here mostly beginner stuff with some more advanced stuff.

I'll post next a more advanced trade I am in which is similar to the gbp/chf

Best
Mike
  • #133,974
  • Mar 19, 2015 12:56am Mar 19, 2015 12:56am
here is a current trade I am in on gold(i'm in the ETF since spot gold is impossible to trade in the states these days)

It's a simply BUOB at a swing low and I bought back at the support area

Here is my chart I posted in real time in the private forum

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currently at breakeven and will re-evaluate on the open of the markets tomorrow. I moved my take profit up right before FOMC as I was able to reduce my risk and wanted to see how that news played out

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Take care
  • #133,975
  • Mar 19, 2015 4:48am Mar 19, 2015 4:48am
Quoting mbqb11
here is a current trade I am in on gold(i'm in the ETF since spot gold is impossible to trade in the states these days) It's a simply BUOB at a swing low and I bought back at the support area Here is my chart I posted in real time in the private forum {image} currently at breakeven and will re-evaluate on the open of the markets tomorrow. I moved my take profit up right before FOMC as I was able to reduce my risk and wanted to see how that news played out {image} Take care
Mike i have to say i'm a bit confused with this Gold trade.

Firstly, I was watching this BUOB forming but was not convinced to take it as i thought it was in sideways/consolidation/box area and BUOB close above only minor recent lows not outside of the box. Also it did not close above descending trendline.

Secondly, could you elaborate more on when you enter on the close of the bar and when you wait for a pull back.

Thanks Mike
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  • #133,976
  • Mar 19, 2015 10:07am Mar 19, 2015 10:07am
Hi,

Nice retrace with pinbar in lower tf . .
Adhav
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  • #133,977
  • Mar 19, 2015 1:22pm Mar 19, 2015 1:22pm
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} Hey Wes Yes that's correct I had a sell just below the BRN of 1.5 once the pinbar was formed. Actually as I said I had it after price closed under the BRN on 3/12. But I reput that order in after the weekly pin was formed. Meaning that order was placed in on Sundays open. Yes price just missed my order on both and took off without me. Such is the case sometimes and that's trading. Trading a break of the pin doesn't make sense in terms of confluence not stop loss size. Stop loss is all relative to your position size so big stop losses don't...
Thanks again for the quick reply sir Mike. Okay so I understood what you were saying there. I also use position size calculator to adjust my position size according to stop loss. If its not the stop loss, then would you please sir enlighten me what made this trade an advanced setup? Coz I thought this was basic obvious reversal PA at resistance. I need to know so I can avoid these setups and just focus on the more basic ones, but I dont know which ones are the basic now that you said that. Currently I am studying the materials from the guest area of the James16 website, your videos and trying to finish 1st 100 pages of this thread. Can you please point me in the right direction where its best to start learning basic setups from this huge thread. After I finish learning from the free materials here ill probably join the PF too.

Btw, do you still use those DBHLC and DBLHC at the start of this thread?
  • #133,978
  • Mar 19, 2015 2:06pm Mar 19, 2015 2:06pm
Help a newbie! Comments please.

Here's my analysis:
PRICE ACTION: H4 valid Pinbar, long wick, little body, closed inside the previous candle's body.
SR: 1.9457 (orange line), Fib 23.6 (navy blue) and Fib 38.2 (sky blue)
TREND: with the trend (downtrend) but price i think is also consolidating
TRAFFIC: bad traffic area, FTA @ 1.9260

Not a very good trade so I just risked 1% of my demo account balance.
Late entry also, I would have entered at the break of the H4 pinbar for a better 1:1 RR.
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  • #133,979
  • Mar 19, 2015 4:00pm Mar 19, 2015 4:00pm
Quoting Wes21
Help a newbie! Comments please. Here's my analysis: PRICE ACTION: H4 valid Pinbar, long wick, little body, closed inside the previous candle's body. SR: 1.9457 (orange line), Fib 23.6 (navy blue) and Fib 38.2 (sky blue) TREND: with the trend (downtrend) but price i think is also consolidating TRAFFIC: bad traffic area, FTA @ 1.9260 Not a very good trade so I just risked 1% of my demo account balance. Late entry also, I would have entered at the break of the H4 pinbar for a better 1:1 RR. {image} {image}
Hello there and welcome to FF!

The best advice I could give to you would be: "Hang here a few months, but maximum 6, and then leave every forum behind and start developing your own system". I'm going to be honest with you: Even if many people trade PA here, every one of them trades it a different way. So trader A will say "Yes, it's a nice trade" while trader B will say "I wouldn't take it"

Now let's go through point by point:

Price Action:
Market makers and big players (aka "pros") usually hunt stop loss orders. Simply by looking at the chart you can tell where the stops are. (Usually right above range high - EXACTLY where you just put it.) Why is it important? Big players can reverse their position in these stops without slippage. So while all the little player's (such as your) stop loss orders are triggered, they initiate a "buy market order". When these MASSIVE amount of buy market orders are triggered they (sometimes!!!) sell into that in big size. What happens when they sell into it? You will see a pinbar that popped the top of the range and closed back = big players probably shorted in big size. Now what does your pinbar tell you in the middle of the range? Pretty much nothing.... So that's why people will tell you that you should go for pinbars, that popped ranges or swing highs...

Trend:
That's the most tricky one. By looking at the 1st chart I could say "the trend is up" - don't you see - we are making higher highs and higher lows. However the short term trend - just as you said is bearish. Trader "A" will tell you: "Are you out of your mind shorting in a long trend?!" while trader B will tell you that it's okay. The greatest fallacy here: Usually (90% of the time) when you post here a losing trade and ask for advice you will get the "Look at the bigger picture - the trend is down" answer. And honestly this is the greatest bullshit that people comment here. There is always a bigger picture where the trend is different. What can you do: You set some rules. You define the "trend" on the 4H/Daily chart. That's it. You don't care what is out there on the higher time-frames. I'm trading on the 1m chart and I defined the trend as the 5m major swings. That's it. I don't care what's on the 1H or Daily. Even if the daily trend is long, but the short term trend is down - I wont be buying all day long because of the bullish daily trend. I will sell because of the shorter term bearish trend. My point being: Define the trend yourself.

Traffic:
There is some nice space where it can fall based on your first chart

Overall conclusion

The RR is just sh*t. Try to take trades that at least have 2+RR. Let me explain why: This game is based on two things. Your win-rate and your risk reward. I can win 40% of the time but if I win 5:1 I'm still profitable. The higher the RR the smaller the win-rate has to be in order to be profitable. Now an average trader has 60-70% win-rate. Don't try to get a 90% win-rate - it's simply unrealistic. What is left then? - Go for the high RR then

Hope this helps.
I'm happy to answer any questions.
Have a nice evening.

S.
It's all psychology...
  • #133,980
  • Mar 19, 2015 6:09pm Mar 19, 2015 6:09pm
Quoting LamerTrader
{quote} Hello there and welcome to FF! The best advice I could give to you would be: "Hang here a few months, but maximum 6, and then leave every forum behind and start developing your own system". Hope this helps. I'm happy to answer any questions. Have a nice evening. S.
Hi LamerTrader,

Really helpful message.. Thanks for your detailed explanation..

Adhav
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