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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #7,801
  • Mar 17, 2015 10:11am Mar 17, 2015 10:11am
Quoting thegmann
{quote} im done markets sucked ass again today idk why I even tried to do risky little speculation here but w/e no big deal out and done won't be trading tomorrow either markets will be as predictable as a roulette wheel.
A break is always good at some point. But EUR/AUD should be looking good now ... I am happy with my decision to short it. Stop is at cost now.

Edit: Counting 40 pips so far ... run honey ... you to the buyers.
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Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #7,802
  • Mar 17, 2015 10:11am Mar 17, 2015 10:11am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Be a short stop and able to flip positions in an instant. Hope you didnt risk too much on only one trade.
nope like .5% of the account it was highly speculative.
  • #7,803
  • Mar 17, 2015 10:12am Mar 17, 2015 10:12am
Quoting thegmann
{quote} nope like .5% of the account it was highly speculative.
Okay good then, it doesnt depend on one trade. What stopped you to go short if you dont mind me asking buddy?
  • #7,804
  • Mar 17, 2015 10:14am Mar 17, 2015 10:14am
Anyway DP 178.70/60; same game again, if support next probably 1/2 179.10/00 if resistance next probably 1/4 177.975/875
  • #7,805
  • Mar 17, 2015 10:15am Mar 17, 2015 10:15am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} A break is always good at some point. But EUR/AUD should be looking good now ... I am happy with my decision to short it. Stop is at cost now. {image}
yeah made it back with the eur/aud for some reason they were super negatively correlated guessing its something to do with the eur gbp correlation markets have been doing the past few days
  • #7,806
  • Mar 17, 2015 10:15am Mar 17, 2015 10:15am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Okay good then, it doesnt depend on one trade. What stopped you to go short if you dont mind me asking buddy?
I thought the same ... but since I respect eggman's view and was already short EU and EA, I thought GJ short would be too risky at the same time, got out at BE then. Reminded me of sticking to my own setup even though respectable traders are positioned in another way.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #7,807
  • Mar 17, 2015 10:17am Mar 17, 2015 10:17am
The daily close on Geppy will be very important in my view. If we close as this or better, we have a bearish engulfing on daily which is a high probability setup in my humble view. A daily candle is a daily candle, a fact and not some noise in the M1 bushes.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #7,808
  • Mar 17, 2015 10:18am Mar 17, 2015 10:18am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Okay good then, it doesnt depend on one trade. What stopped you to go short if you dont mind me asking buddy?
just pure speculation off what seemed like pretty substantial rejection off 178.6, getting closer to middle of the day maybe scare a few shorts to unload get a jump to 179.4/5. 70 pip pop up in less than 30 minutes and with GN and GA also rallying thought why not.

Rationally should have shorted the 179.2 in line with overall trend last few days.
  • #7,809
  • Mar 17, 2015 10:18am Mar 17, 2015 10:18am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} I thought the same ... but since I respect eggman's view and was already short EU and EA, I thought GJ short would be too risky at the same time, got out at BE then. Reminded me of sticking to my own setup even though respectable traders are positioned in another way.
That doesnt matter, they can be wrong too like every other trader.
The only one who is right all the time is market itself.
  • #7,810
  • Mar 17, 2015 10:20am Mar 17, 2015 10:20am
Quoting thegmann
{quote} just pure speculation off what seemed like pretty substantial rejection off 178.6, getting closer to middle of the day maybe scare a few shorts to unload get a jump to 179.4/5. 70 pip pop up in less than 30 minutes and with GN and GA also rallying though why not.
Could have worked out, I think its crucial as soon as you know you are wrong in what direction to trade, anyway that trade wasnt bad at all, could have worked out though.
  • #7,811
  • Mar 17, 2015 10:21am Mar 17, 2015 10:21am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} That doesnt matter, they can be wrong too like every other trader. The only one who is right all the time is market itself.
I think I have a chance for accepting this.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #7,812
  • Mar 17, 2015 10:22am Mar 17, 2015 10:22am
Quoting thegmann
{quote} yeah made it back with the eur/aud for some reason they were super negatively correlated guessing its something to do with the eur gbp correlation markets have been doing the past few days

Just remember to try and keep a cool head as much as possible and you'll be fine. I had a tough start yesterday, managed to stop myself burning the house down
  • #7,813
  • Mar 17, 2015 10:24am Mar 17, 2015 10:24am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Could have worked out, I think its crucial as soon as you know you are wrong in what direction to trade, anyway that trade wasnt bad at all, could have worked out though.
yeah guess I still had the bad taste in my mouth of getting stopped for a few trying to short the 179.1/2 level on Monday didn't feel like reversing right away and getting burned both ways on a false break down, had EA running as well which hedged me a bit.

were back below the 178.85/75 level now interesting to see if it will hold now but not looking to take any trades unless its super obvious.
  • #7,814
  • Edited 10:42am Mar 17, 2015 10:30am | Edited 10:42am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} I think I have a chance for accepting this.
You better do for your own sake. Market is a complex system.

Just for instance, lets take thegmann's trade (hope its ok for you buddy), he went long there right? Now lets go back in time to the exact same point as he put on his trade with the same parameters and everything else remaining unchanged.

The trade works out!

Nothing really changed at all but it worked at the second attempt, why? Thats the nature of complex systems, so asking for a why is a nonsense question. I think its really important to grasp that.

Add: Its the same with DPs, the only thing I know they are high probability points for change in sentiment, I still cant tell you what definitely is going to happen, but whats likely to happen. Thats it.
  • #7,815
  • Mar 17, 2015 10:34am Mar 17, 2015 10:34am
Huh. Well, i ended up shorting gbp/jpy again at same price (179.016) after TPing the first one at 178.60. It worked.

On the other hand, my shorts for GBP/NZD got slammed right to the hard SL with the milk prices. Based on how we've only had 1 bearish 15min. candle in the hours before the rise to 2.015, the news might have also been leaked. Who knows.

Most of my profit on this geppy short will probably get eaten up by my losses from that. Still profiting, certainly, but only a fraction of the original amount.

And because I must find some method to vent my frustration, I will now proceed to type something completely random: Moo.
  • #7,816
  • Mar 17, 2015 10:34am Mar 17, 2015 10:34am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} You better do for your own sake. Market is a complex system. Just for instance, lets take thegmann's trade (hope its ok for you buddy), he went long there right? Now lets go back in time to the exact same point as he put on his trade with the same parameters and everything else remaining unchanged. The trade works out! Nothing really changed at all but it worked at the second attempt, why? Thats the nature of complex systems, so asking for a why is a nonsense question. I think its...

Yeah this was big for me in the beginning aswell. Knowing that financial markets are organic too, can save you some hours of not being up at night.
  • #7,817
  • Edited 11:01am Mar 17, 2015 10:41am | Edited 11:01am
Quoting mello87
{quote} Yeah this was big for me in the beginning aswell. Knowing that financial markets are organic too, can save you some hours of not being up at night.
If you wanna get into this topic I can recommend you to do some research on swarm intelligence.

These are also complex systems. It doesnt matter if you call them banks, institutions, individuals all are buying or selling which is trading by definition what makes it one big swarm of traders. Market becomes its own entity, the swarm.
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  • #7,818
  • Mar 17, 2015 10:45am Mar 17, 2015 10:45am
might be the same old pattern - sold in European/US session, only to become a buy in Asian session.
  • #7,819
  • Mar 17, 2015 10:51am Mar 17, 2015 10:51am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} You better do for your own sake. Market is a complex system. Just for instance, lets take thegmann's trade (hope its ok for you buddy), he went long there right? Now lets go back in time to the exact same point as he put on his trade with the same parameters and everything else remaining unchanged. The trade works out! Nothing really changed at all but it worked at the second attempt, why? Thats the nature of complex systems, so asking for a why is a nonsense question. I think its...
Your more than welcome to reference my trades no need to ask, I post them here for a reason to post what i'm thinking/seeing and get feedback from others who may be seeing the same or different things and help maybe point something out I don't necessarily see. It was just a (what I thought to be) a high probability trade we had just bounced very close to a rising TL we were back over 50% fibo and had just risen very sharply in a short period of time. The risk was worth it for me. I have several views on the market and we're at a big point here where for me it makes sense to take shots either up or down based on how we react to TLs/fibs/DPs that are around here.

I have several longterm views that i've layed out on my charts that may or may not occur and they're all vastly different, idc which one plays out I just need to be there ready to hop in whichever direction the market moves.
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  • #7,820
  • Mar 17, 2015 10:56am Mar 17, 2015 10:56am
Quoting thegmann
[...]. I have several longterm views that i've layed out on my charts that may or may not occur and they're all vastly different, idc which one plays out I just need to be there ready to hop in whichever direction the market moves.
Thats the mindset

Thank you, much appreciated

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