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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #7,461
  • Mar 14, 2015 6:57pm Mar 14, 2015 6:57pm
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} Using tick-volume is nonsense on my view. If you insert volume indicator on MT4 or on Interbank charts, the answer is more than clear! You will never watch it !! MT4 datafeeds are "pipifax"!!! I agree 100%
Yes thats why I dont use it, I rather stick to price
  • #7,462
  • Mar 14, 2015 6:58pm Mar 14, 2015 6:58pm
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Numbers were calculated by Euklid
Good one Hickson
  • #7,463
  • Mar 14, 2015 7:00pm Mar 14, 2015 7:00pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Hi Hickson, You should watch it at 9:26:53 tonight. :nerd: Have a good weekend.
http://9gag.com/gag/ay09eEb
  • #7,464
  • Mar 14, 2015 8:10pm Mar 14, 2015 8:10pm
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Hi Nemo, Ive seen many histograms, thats what I expected, its looks like data is missing or incomplete. Id like to give you an advice though, try to you use price instead of volume.
Thanks Ray. I will experiment and see what I come up with.
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #7,465
  • Mar 14, 2015 8:18pm Mar 14, 2015 8:18pm
Quoting qFish
{quote} Thanks Ray. I will experiment and see what I come up with.
Anyway I recommend you using bar histogram and add a searching-algo for criterions, like:

(1) x(t-3) < x(t-2) < x(t-1) < x(t) > x(t+1) > x(t+2) > x(t+3)
(2) x(t-3) > x(t-2) > x(t-1) > x(t) < x(t+1) < x(t+2) < x(t+3)

So you may see the process and determine local highs / lows in the empirical data.

If you need something, let me know.
  • #7,466
  • Mar 14, 2015 8:43pm Mar 14, 2015 8:43pm
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Anyway I recommend you using bar histogram and add a searching-algo for criterions, like: (1) x(t-3) < x(t-2) < x(t-1) < x(t) > x(t+1) > x(t+2) > x(t+3) (2) x(t-3) > x(t-2) > x(t-1) > x(t) < x(t+1) < x(t+2) < x(t+3) So you may see the process and determine local highs / lows in the empirical data. If you need something, let me know.
Oh I see, very nice. I was just trying to think of a way to detect it. This is a good start. Thanks again Ray!
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #7,467
  • Mar 14, 2015 8:53pm Mar 14, 2015 8:53pm
Quoting qFish
{quote} Oh I see, very nice. I was just trying to think of a way to detect it. This is a good start. Thanks again Ray!
Np
  • #7,468
  • Mar 14, 2015 10:46pm Mar 14, 2015 10:46pm
USD/TWD
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  • #7,469
  • Mar 14, 2015 11:18pm Mar 14, 2015 11:18pm
Quoting thegmann
My GA if anyone is looking at this pair as well interesting level here coming up around 1.92/915. Will be watching closely if hold will go long for (hopefully) another 1000 pip run. If breaks will look to go short till 1.894 {image}
Very Plasable for either direction, I see selling tops safer then buying bottoms for now..................just my thoughts.........
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #7,470
  • Mar 14, 2015 11:23pm Mar 14, 2015 11:23pm
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} a math geek Mate, let me know what you think and what you see, deeply appreciated if you do: Add: thats a part of the algo I developed Add(2): I dont expect a scientific answer, just your first thought {image}
Oh ya.........I am 3057 years old and I remember that equation. It is about 2500 years old, so your on to something here.

Thanks
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #7,471
  • Mar 14, 2015 11:26pm Mar 14, 2015 11:26pm
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Numbers were calculated by Euklid
Exactly ! I just saw this response...............
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #7,472
  • Mar 14, 2015 11:27pm Mar 14, 2015 11:27pm
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} http://9gag.com/gag/ay09eEb
Very Kool.............Pi Day................
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #7,473
  • Mar 15, 2015 3:44am Mar 15, 2015 3:44am
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  • #7,474
  • Mar 15, 2015 3:56am Mar 15, 2015 3:56am
Quoting qFish
{quote} How far back to you include historical data for analysis?

Hi gFish,

that is a really very good question. Since I have worked a very lot with market-profiles, volume-profiles etc., I do use several lookback periods, for example:

8h
32h
5 days
32 days
160 days
864 days

It is kind of fractal system, meaning, when price rolls out of a shorter TF-profile, the next higher TF-profile will account for that.

The most reliable profile for short term trading is in my view the 5 days profile in connection with the 32 days one.

It was very observable in the past 12 months in EURUSD trading, that the very high TF profiles like 160 days or 864 days did not get much respect.


Explanation can be done in various ways:

a) market memory fades over time - that may be especially true for our times now, where money is floating really fast, everytime on the search for the quickest buck in the shortest period of time

b) when, especially in Forex, fundamental aspects weigh heavily on the pair, decissions far in the past get outright meaningless


A very nice example was the huge volume POC around 3080 on the 864 days volume profile last year. Price came in the vicinity of that POC and without much of consolidation, which was awaited, it literally gapped right through the POC


General note: market or volume profiles, in my view, are best to be traded in ranging markets. In strong momentum moves they can spank you a bit
  • #7,475
  • Mar 15, 2015 4:04am Mar 15, 2015 4:04am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} You're welcome nemo Volume is a shrewd affair, so you probably use tick-volume right? In order to use that effectively you need a good broker with multiple major liquidity providers. (BoA, Barcleys, HSBC, Deutsche, etc.) If you may show a picture of your histogram I may give you advice according what I see, for instance 13. February, Friday. You can compare it to mine and you may see the difference. Glad I could helped.



When using MT4, you simply need one of the biggest MT4 brokers with a huge liquidity pool.

FXCM seems to be by far the biggest here. Add to that, that FXCM offers not tick-volume, but the real traded volume in their liquidity pool.

But anyway: tick-volume is a very good proxy for real volume as several studies have shown. The accuracy is far beyond the 80% mark.


When I should install an order I would recommend:

1.) use interbank tick volume

2.) use FXCM or Dukascopy real volume

3.) use tick-volume of another huge broker like Oanda etc.


4.) do not use tick-volume of tiny broker, especially when their liquidity pool is not known; do not use bucket shop tick-volume
  • #7,476
  • Mar 15, 2015 4:18am Mar 15, 2015 4:18am
General advise:

maybe you need MT4 for data gathering, analysis etc.:

- do this on a separate PC/Notebook than trading

- avoid trading with MT4 like the plaque

-use another platform for trading on a PC/Notebook, on which no MT4 is running



My observation is:

One of my Notebooks is a bit sensible. On this one MT4 runs. Every time, when we are in front of huge news/CB decisions etc., the processor work gets significantly up. This is due to MT4. Next is, that the fan jumps on, my accustical signal, so to say, that the system may hang completely in a few seconds, or will be not responding for up to minutes.

It seems that the MT4 brokers are able to manipulate the system.

I have observed this so much times that it can not be coincidence.
  • #7,477
  • Mar 15, 2015 6:26am Mar 15, 2015 6:26am
Quoting forexalien
{quote} Exactly ! I just saw this response...............
Do you think it is possible? Even though it is a movie ... spirals in nature are perfect. Patterns of flowers, shells ... it cannot be all coincidence? It can be calculated ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #7,478
  • Mar 15, 2015 7:24am Mar 15, 2015 7:24am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Do you think it is possible? Even though it is a movie ... spirals in nature are perfect. Patterns of flowers, shells ... it cannot be all coincidence? It can be calculated ...
There are many myths about the Fibonacci series and 1.618 in particular. But many argument are hard to refute.

In what we're doing here, it is just a coincidence that when price started at 117 and stopped thus far at 189.4, the length was within 100 pips of the move 118.1/163 x 1.618?
  • #7,479
  • Mar 15, 2015 8:09am Mar 15, 2015 8:09am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} There are many myths about the Fibonacci series and 1.618 in particular. But many argument are hard to refute. In what we're doing here, it is just a coincidence that when price started at 117 and stopped thus far at 189.4, the length was within 100 pips of the move 118.1/163 x 1.618?
This is exactly the point ... how to refute this? It is scary somehow, isn't it?
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #7,480
  • Mar 15, 2015 8:34am Mar 15, 2015 8:34am
Decision points calendar week 12 for [GBP/JPY]:

(01) 203.30/20
(02) 202.90/80
(03) 201.50/40
(04) 200.60/50
(05) 200.10/00
(06) 199.30/20
(07) 198.20/10
(08) 198.00/97.90
(09) 197.50/40
(10) 195.40/30
(11) 194.70/60
(12) 193.70/60
(13) 192.90/80
(14) 189.90/80
(15) 189.10/00
(16) 188.70/60
(17) 187.30/20
(18) 186.40/30
(19) 185.90/80
(20) 185.10/00
(21) 184.00/83.90
(22) 183.70/60
(23) 183.20/10
(24) 181.20/10
(25) 180.50/40
(26) 179.50/40
(27) 178.70/60
(28) 175.80/70
(29) 175.00/74.90
(30) 174.00/73.90
(31) 173.00/72.90
(32) 172.30/20
(33) 171.70/60
(34) 170.80/70
(35) 169.80/70
(36) 169.60/50
(37) 169.00/00
(38) 167.00/00
(39) 166.40/30
(40) 165.40/30
(41) 164.40/30

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