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Ullen's journal

  • #1
  • First Post: Mar 12, 2015 4:15am Mar 12, 2015 4:15am
Hello FF

I feel that i've been given so much by FF, and now it's time to give back. I may only be 19 years of age, but I've gained enough knowledge to develop my own system, and gain an edge in the market. I've learned that the most important thing in trading is having the right mindset, and not to feel like you need to control market movements. Market movements will happen though, but you can't predict if it's going up or down.

''Yeahhh fugayzi, fugazi, it's a wazzy, it's a woozy, it's fewfewfewfew it's fairy dust. It doesn't exist'' -Mark Hannah

We need to anticipate, and avoid taking emotional decisions, and trust me, your decisions will be emotional at some point. You may not know it, but you can't control your subconscious.

''If to do were as easy as to know what were good to do, chapels had been churches, and poor men's cottage princes' palaces.'' -William Shakespeare

In this thread i wont be sharing a ''system''. but i'll share ideas for you to think about, and I'll share some live trades to prove that what some may think of as nonsense is a way of trading.

See you soon
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #2
  • Mar 12, 2015 5:40am Mar 12, 2015 5:40am
Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #3
  • Mar 12, 2015 8:51am Mar 12, 2015 8:51am
A Positive Mind, and Positive Spirit lead to True Happiness
  • #4
  • Mar 12, 2015 9:25am Mar 12, 2015 9:25am
I am pleased to hear that you have come so far, Ullen .
It is also a generous thought to share some of it with us - applause and kudos to that . So I look forward to what you have to share with us...

PS: Jeg lavede forresten +10k paa NNIT's boersnotering. Ved ikke hvor meget du foelger med i aktiemarkedet ogsaa?

Best regards,
Your Danish friend
  • #5
  • Mar 12, 2015 3:09pm Mar 12, 2015 3:09pm
Quoting GekkoJr92
I am pleased to hear that you have come so far, Ullen . It is also a generous thought to share some of it with us - applause and kudos to that . So I look forward to what you have to share with us... PS: Jeg lavede forresten +10k paa NNIT's boersnotering. Ved ikke hvor meget du foelger med i aktiemarkedet ogsaa? Best regards, Your Danish friend
It's really just a change in the mindset. I bet that almost every trader has to go through this process to become really profitable, with a statistical edge. I think that i might have some interesting things coming the next days, as i'm very busy at the moment, therefore i don't have time to go in depth with an explanation.

(switching to danish) Tillykke med det! Jeg følger interresant med i aktiemarkedet, men vil først gå ind i det marked, når jeg har nok kapital til at sprede min risiko ud, og har en veletableret organisation. Det er en helt anden tilgang der skal til for at have succes i aktiemarkedet, og der har jeg slet ikke viden nok
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #6
  • Mar 13, 2015 2:39am Mar 13, 2015 2:39am
Patterns

We all know what patterns are. What everyone aren't aware of, is that patterns are on of the ways to be successful in the forex business. Patterns are very easy to create, and you can do it with almost every TF or pair. Find your own pattern, and own it. Wait for price to walk into your trap, or have yourself a nice ritual, with a daily trade at the same time every day. But first you need to take some time to look at a lot of charts, and twist your brain to seek these patterns. Once you've found the pattern, either backtest it visually (what i prefer), or do it automatically.

Good luck!
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Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #7
  • Mar 13, 2015 8:59am Mar 13, 2015 8:59am
TP HIT

R/R 1/1

Win ratio so far = 100%
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Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #8
  • Mar 13, 2015 9:03am Mar 13, 2015 9:03am
Another trade triggered.
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Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #9
  • Mar 13, 2015 9:34am Mar 13, 2015 9:34am
Closed at BE
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Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #10
  • Mar 13, 2015 9:04pm Mar 13, 2015 9:04pm
Hi Ullen

I am anticipating good things here

cheers
hannele
  • #11
  • Mar 14, 2015 1:31am Mar 14, 2015 1:31am
Quoting hannele
Hi Ullen I am anticipating good things here cheers hannele

ehehe do not dream the guy will never give you a clue every forum or he participate same boring stuff only show a smart he get ????????? young attitude
  • #12
  • Mar 14, 2015 12:33pm Mar 14, 2015 12:33pm
Leaving decision making to the market.

Markets are made to move, and often they are not movig according to the common understanding. MM's are building positions all the time, and basically we're just part of a big money game, and most of us are not winning. We can try and trade like them, but in reality we will never be 100% sure how and when they will act. This is why i like to think that it is a great step to put aside the idea of playing the game, and making decisions based on lagging indicators, or fundemental ideas (in the smaller TF's).

I've made an example of what i'm talking about, and this is not the way i trade, and it is just an example of the idea i'm presenting. This setup is very basic, but the fib zone can be used as a trap zone for the price. And you have a nice R/R as well.
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Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #13
  • Edited 3:41pm Mar 14, 2015 1:13pm | Edited 3:41pm
How i make a consitant profit

Some very simple math on probability and R/R

I have a win rate around 4/5 with 1/1 RR, but for this example let's say that i managed to reach a 2/3 winrate with RR 1/1. This means that if i compound correctly, and have the right MM, the probability of not earning money in the long run is very very small. The important part, is that when i loose, i use reversed compounding. I've made an example of how a set of 30 trades could affect a 10.000$ account. Out of 30 trades i should loose at average 10 trades.

5% risk

Attached Image


I hope this gives some food for thougt, and that you in some way can use it in your trading
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #14
  • Mar 14, 2015 6:51pm Mar 14, 2015 6:51pm
Quoting Ullen
The important part, is that when i loose, i use reversed compounding.
Hi Ullen, could you please explain to us what you mean by "reversed compounding" in this context? Thanks.
You reap what you sow.
  • #15
  • Mar 15, 2015 6:00am Mar 15, 2015 6:00am
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} Hi Ullen, could you please explain to us what you mean by "reversed compounding" in this context? Thanks.
I simply mean that the lot size is calculated for every trade, so that if i have a loosing streak, the impact on the account wont be destructive. The probability of loosing 5 trades in a row with the given RR and win rate is

(1/3^5)*100 = 0,41%

This tells me something about the way i should calculate my RR, and how i should compound most effectively. I am loosing a specific percentage amount of the account for every trade, and with 5% risk, i need 282 loosing trades in a row on a 10.000 account, to hit 0. The probability of this happening is smaller than the probability of getting killed by a dog.
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #16
  • Mar 15, 2015 6:43am Mar 15, 2015 6:43am
Quoting Ullen
{quote} I simply mean that the lot size is calculated for every trade, so that if i have a loosing streak, the impact on the account wont be destructive.
I see. 5% of current balance for risk and reward every trade. Yes, that makes a lot of sense. By the way, if you'd used 5% of starting balance ($500) per trade in the above example, the ending balance would be $14500, which is $630 less. So not only is your method safer in terms of drawdown, it also reaps greater rewards in the long run.
You reap what you sow.
  • #17
  • Mar 15, 2015 6:52am Mar 15, 2015 6:52am
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} So not only is your method safer in terms of drawdown, it also reaps greater rewards in the long run.
Indeed my friend.
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #18
  • Mar 16, 2015 2:21am Mar 16, 2015 2:21am
Good morning everyone.
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Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #19
  • Mar 16, 2015 8:41am Mar 16, 2015 8:41am
Quoting Ullen
Good morning everyone. {image}
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Inserted Video
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #20
  • Mar 16, 2015 9:21am Mar 16, 2015 9:21am
Quoting Ullen
{quote} {image} https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HmQq6yLe2ww

Why was your stop not hit? Did price not go below that level before hitting profit?

Trying to understand.

Thanks
Solutions ONLY!!!
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