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Gordon Gekko's real-time Forex trading calls

  • #101
  • Edited 6:04pm Mar 14, 2015 5:50pm | Edited 6:04pm
Quoting Isingh
From your posts on your trading style I gather that your TF-s are probably 1H or higher. (I may be incorrect on this though). Yet you describe your quite a 'labor-intensive' trading day - observing the prices from morn till the US 11-45 PM. With all that attention payed - It seems you could easily employ as well the shorter-then-1H timeframes. What's your view or feeling about these TF-s ?
I day-trade on the small time frames (5 to 15 min). The 1 hour time frame usually produces late entries and exits, as far as this day-trade system is concerned.

Even though I follow 28 currency pairs each day, a lot of them are quickly eliminated after 2 or 3 hours at most because the specific trading setup I am looking for is simply not there.

The most time consuming part is when I baby sit a winning position, due to the dynamic trailing-stop I am using.

Most traders believe that the small time frames are "noisy" and cannot possibly produce reliable and profitable trading signals. It's just a myth I can assure you.
Each losing trade is an opportunity to learn
  • #102
  • Mar 14, 2015 6:02pm Mar 14, 2015 6:02pm
Quoting EarnPipsNow
{quote} I day-trade on the small time frames (5 to 15 min).... Most traders believe that the small time frames are "noisy" and cannot possibly produce reliable and profitable trading signals. It's just a myth I can assure you.


Same here. 5M is less stable then 15M though - I call it's movement "capricious". And 30M is still more stable then 15M.

The central reason to use short TFs though is preference for higher and safe position sizes (IMHO). Since your reaction to indicator events is much much faster when trading 5M or 15M then you can enter with larger positions. Isn't it so ?
Siddhartha G
  • #103
  • Mar 14, 2015 6:05pm Mar 14, 2015 6:05pm
Well it became rather late in my "center of the world". Till next time - !
Siddhartha G
  • #104
  • Edited 7:00pm Mar 14, 2015 6:13pm | Edited 7:00pm
Quoting Isingh
5M is less stable then 15M though - I call it's movement "capricious". And 30M is still more stable than 15M.
That is true.

Quoting Isingh
The central reason to use short TFs though is preference for higher and safe position sizes (IMHO). Since your reaction to indicator events is much much faster when trading 5M or 15M then you can enter with larger positions. Isn't it so ?
That is also true, small time frames allow you to fine-tune your entries and use a much smaller stop. This in turn allows you to buy/sell more lots.

Some traders wait for a breakout on the 1h time frame for example but use the 15 min chart to actually "see" the breakout way before it appears on the 1h chart. Now they are buying the breakout at a much lower price, their stop is smaller and their risk/reward ratio is even better.
Each losing trade is an opportunity to learn
  • #105
  • Mar 14, 2015 6:14pm Mar 14, 2015 6:14pm
Quoting Isingh
Well it became rather late in my "center of the world". Till next time - !
Take care Isingh, thanks for dropping by.
Each losing trade is an opportunity to learn
  • #106
  • Mar 16, 2015 2:39am Mar 16, 2015 2:39am
Howdy EarnNow !

What do you say of "THE TRADING WEATHER" - for today ?

First 'meteorological measurement' is it Risk-On / Risk-Off day ?



First impression (also from day- TF) t'is Risk-ON...

.. all the grass-shoots seem to spring up tentatively after a severe march freezing spell ...

What do you say ?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 16-3-2015 EUR.JPG Size: 86 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 16-3-2015 AUD.JPG Size: 94 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 16-3-2015 gbp.JPG Size: 65 KB
Siddhartha G
  • #107
  • Mar 16, 2015 11:37am Mar 16, 2015 11:37am
Quoting Isingh
What do you say ?
Hi Isingh.

You want an honest answer?

Here it is : I don't have a single clue.

For the simple reason that I never trade with fundamentals and concepts like risk on/off. I am not saying they are unimportant or meaningless but it's just not the way I trade.

I look at price action (and price action alone) and try to determine where the market is likely to go next, from a probabilistic point of view, that's all I do every single day.
Each losing trade is an opportunity to learn
  • #108
  • Mar 16, 2015 2:27pm Mar 16, 2015 2:27pm
Quoting EarnPipsNow
{quote} Hi Isingh. You want an honest answer? Here it is : I don't have a single clue.... I look at price action (and price action alone) and try to determine where the market is likely to go next, from a probabilistic point of view, that's all I do every single day.
Honesty is the BEST policy!
You'd be surprised - but Your PRICE ACTION opinion on these chart-states WAS what I've asked you about.
1) I have not looked or read any fundamental analysis last 3 days - and did not ask for any fundamental considerations.
I still would greatly appreciate your PRICE-ACTION_BASED opinion on these pics
2) With the risk of repeating myself : Looking AT THE PRICE ACTION DEPICTED on the above images - my (purely personal) take from them
was that they "feel" like "green shoots emerging from under the melting snow" (Just for here and now - the metaphor used is:
Green = Up against the $ and the yen, Shoots = weak signal, unsure and rather TENUOUS attempts at price-growth, Snow, freezing = the extreme Bearishness and price falls last weeks in EUR and in AUD almost every day for months.

Please Look at these charts with "eyes from this morning" - what do you say ?
Siddhartha G
  • #109
  • Edited 3:57pm Mar 16, 2015 3:45pm | Edited 3:57pm
Quoting Isingh
{quote} Honesty is the BEST policy! You'd be surprised - but Your PRICE ACTION opinion on these chart-states WAS what I've asked you about. 1) I have not looked or read any fundamental analysis last 3 days - and did not ask for any fundamental considerations. I still would greatly appreciate your PRICE-ACTION_BASED opinion on these pics 2) With the risk of repeating myself : Looking AT THE PRICE ACTION DEPICTED on the above images - my (purely personal) take from them was that they "feel" like "green shoots emerging from under the melting...
Well it's very simple.

On the 1h time frame (since you are using that time frame as a reference), the Euro is clearly in a very bearish mood. Traders have been dumping truckloads of Euros and buying US dollars for quite some time now. So unless the EUR/USD breaks a few down trendlines, for example, I have absolutely no particular reason to believe that it's going up anytime soon.

In fact, it could even go to $0.50, who really knows...

The AUD/USD recently touched its 50% Fibonacci but was unable to go any further. It's currently flirting with the 30 and 25% Fib. This pair is also showing weakness.

The GBP/JPY I am not so sure, even though the trend is clearly down. Notice the powerful hammer on the 1h, a sign that some buying interest has just emerged, at least in the short term.

But, again, these are just mere opinions, I need clear trading signals to trade, not trading ideas of this sort: "I believe this or that is going to happen because I've heard on CNBC that Talking Head XYZ - the one with the nice Armani suit - believes that blah blah blah... ".
Each losing trade is an opportunity to learn
  • #110
  • Mar 16, 2015 4:28pm Mar 16, 2015 4:28pm
Agree and disagree.

My hunch from the pics (THEN!) vs. Reality of SEVERAL HOURS SINCE
To Me (50%- 50% Vindicating Your view of THEN)

GBPJPY looked (to me) the bearish of them all, But... YOU were spot on - it'd developed the strongest LONG trend of the 3!
though the "ledge and the hammer were "green shoots"

AUDUSD seemed to develop higher Low (yet not HH!) It rose for a while indeed, yet... as of now- oscillates on the verge of double DROP (pun intended). So this one is a split decision between opposites.
More Bullish then not. So it is 70%-30% Your call.



EURUSD actually looked to me NOT hopeless for today
and indeed - it HAD TRACED a DOUBLE BOTTOM today. But... then developed an abrupt , though limited "drooping handle"
So let's score it 70% - 30% to "green rise"
Siddhartha G
  • #111
  • Edited 6:33pm Mar 16, 2015 5:14pm | Edited 6:33pm
Quoting Isingh
Agree and disagree. My hunch from the pics (THEN!) vs. Reality of SEVERAL HOURS SINCE To Me (50%- 50% Vindicating Your view of THEN) GBPJPY looked (to me) the bearish of them all, But... YOU were spot on - it'd developed the strongest LONG trend of the 3! though the "ledge and the hammer were "green shoots" AUDUSD seemed to develop higher Low (yet not HH!) It rose for a while indeed, yet... as of now- oscillates on the verge of double DROP (pun intended). So this one is a split decision between opposites. More Bullish then not. So it is 70%-30%...
So do you currently have any open position on the EUR/USD, the AUD/USD or the GBP/JPY, Isingh? Or perhaps you are simply watching these pairs on the 1 h charts and waiting for a signal to pull the trigger?

On a personal note I have just received a trading book I ordered from Amazon, it's called "And end to the bull - Cut through the noise to develop a sustainable trading career" by Gary Norden (Wiley Publishing). The first few pages are very interesting so far.
Each losing trade is an opportunity to learn
  • #112
  • Edited 8:43pm Mar 16, 2015 8:21pm | Edited 8:43pm
No trading signals anywhere today.

Psychologically, it's hard to wake up each morning at 6 AM, spend like 10 hours in front of the computer screen and find absolutely nothing to do.

Or even worse, find a "trade" and still lose money!

But that's precisely what day-trading (and trading in general) is all about: long, tedious, boring hours waiting for that right moment.

It's also about doing nothing when there is nothing to do. This, of course, is the hardest part.
Each losing trade is an opportunity to learn
  • #113
  • Edited 1:53am Mar 17, 2015 1:39am | Edited 1:53am
Quoting EarnPipsNow
hours waiting for that right moment. It's also about doing nothing when there is nothing to do. This, of course, is the hardest part.
Aye, aye .
On a personal note - yes, I have longed all three of the pairs in european morning hours and made some very modest pips on all three. then had to exit - luckily I did.
Siddhartha G
  • #114
  • Mar 17, 2015 1:51am Mar 17, 2015 1:51am
By the way - with all due modesty (I'll shorthand 'WDM' from now on) all three pairs are much greener and much stronger
UP state today - I surmise a mini rally in EURUSD.

This is EURo's retracement from multi-week selling storm, I think...
Siddhartha G
  • #115
  • Edited 6:46pm Mar 17, 2015 6:10pm | Edited 6:46pm
Quoting Isingh
AUDUSD seemed to develop higher Low (yet not HH!)
In general, if the trader wants to play the reversal and follow the new up trend (if it is indeed a new up trend), it's better for him to wait for at least 2 consecutive Higher High (HH) and 2 consecutive Higher Low (HL) - and vice versa for downtrends - on the time frame he is watching.

By definition, ALL new trends start that way.
Each losing trade is an opportunity to learn
  • #116
  • Mar 17, 2015 6:16pm Mar 17, 2015 6:16pm
Hello EarnNow

Well your bear assessment of the Three pairs was rather true then false today.
Yet, the market is still idling in a range.

Tomorrow is another day.

By the way - have read with lots of attention your patient and clear explanations in "you know where".

Somehow your style shows that A) You have/ had position of managing teams in your "day job"
B) One of the tasks was instruction for the team members/ employees

Reserved wording manifests a Professional.
Siddhartha G
  • #117
  • Mar 17, 2015 6:32pm Mar 17, 2015 6:32pm
Quoting Isingh
Somehow your style shows that A) You have/ had position of managing teams in your "day job" B) One of the tasks was instruction for the team members/ employees
Wow, very impressive indeed, Isingh!

Or maybe I should call you Sherlock Holmes from now on
Attached Image
Each losing trade is an opportunity to learn
  • #118
  • Edited 9:12pm Mar 17, 2015 9:01pm | Edited 9:12pm
Bought EUR/CAD at 1.3575, 47 pip stop.
Each losing trade is an opportunity to learn
  • #119
  • Mar 17, 2015 9:17pm Mar 17, 2015 9:17pm
Preceding post has been edited because I wrote "47 pips stop" instead of "47 pip stop" (the extra "s" in "pips" was wrong).
Each losing trade is an opportunity to learn
  • #120
  • Mar 17, 2015 9:25pm Mar 17, 2015 9:25pm
Not sure why the Canadian dollar jumped 21 pips after 9:30 PM (NY time) but who cares.

The USD/CAD is usually hard to move during the Asian session.
Each losing trade is an opportunity to learn
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