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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #7,441
  • Mar 13, 2015 11:34pm Mar 13, 2015 11:34pm
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Sure you may, it depends on mathematical characteristics and -position of the DP in the statistic based on empirical evidence and statistical criterions. I observed certain behaviour of price in the past which led me to the conclusion this DP may be significant in the future. This may change next week since I adapt to every changing market condition. Hope that helps.
How far back to you include historical data for analysis?
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #7,442
  • Mar 14, 2015 6:36am Mar 14, 2015 6:36am
Quoting qFish
{quote} How far back to you include historical data for analysis?
Hi Nemo

It's adaptive. It depends on market conditions:

(1) Volatility
(2) Range - which is the derivation of volatility
(3) Time

This may differ depending on the major/cross you trade. Currently Im using a third year in G/J; if market conditions changes based on the parameters mentioned above I'll adapt the time horizon. Hope thats helps.
  • #7,443
  • Mar 14, 2015 8:11am Mar 14, 2015 8:11am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Hi Nemo It's adaptive. It depends on market conditions: (1) Volatility (2) Range - which is the derivation of volatility (3) Time This may differ depending on the major/cross you trade. Currently Im using a third year in G/J; if market conditions changes based on the parameters mentioned above I'll adapt the time horizon. Hope thats helps.
Thank you FX-Ray! I'm trying to analyze it myself to see if I can come up with similar levels you've shown. So far it's choppy, but the major levels show. But I'm simply using a weighted price (by volume) histogram over time. It looks like you ignore volume and consider the spread of each bar instead? But yes, this helps, thanks! Just trying to understand what's going on under the hood ^.^ Still a lot to learn from you.
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #7,444
  • Mar 14, 2015 8:27am Mar 14, 2015 8:27am
Quoting qFish
{quote} Thank you FX-Ray! I'm trying to analyze it myself to see if I can come up with similar levels you've shown. So far it's choppy, but the major levels show. But I'm simply using a weighted price (by volume) histogram over time. It looks like you ignore volume and consider the spread of each bar instead? But yes, this helps, thanks! Just trying to understand what's going on under the hood ^.^ Still a lot to learn from you.
You're welcome nemo Volume is a shrewd affair, so you probably use tick-volume right? In order to use that effectively you need a good broker with multiple major liquidity providers. (BoA, Barcleys, HSBC, Deutsche, etc.)
If you may show a picture of your histogram I may give you advice according what I see, for instance 13. February, Friday. You can compare it to mine and you may see the difference. Glad I could helped.
  • #7,445
  • Edited 9:16am Mar 14, 2015 9:01am | Edited 9:16am
Quoting stanvy
on coming week, i wont be surprise for it to go up, but max will be 182.50, then on following week it might drop to 175.60 what is your thought guys?
I would expect a rebound up to 181.5 Monday-Tuesday into FOMC on Wednesday. Then depending on language of FOMC either a sharp drop off or a continuation of the rally. GBP data will also act as a catalyst in either direction but I see short covering going into Monday and I would expect price to be around 181.5 again. Just my outlook. Got to watch what BoJ says too they're sneaky little f*ckers.
  • #7,446
  • Mar 14, 2015 9:30am Mar 14, 2015 9:30am
Quoting thegmann
{quote} I would expect a rebound up to 181.5 Monday-Tuesday into FOMC on Wednesday. Then depending on language of FOMC either a sharp drop off or a continuation of the rally. GBP data will also act as a catalyst in either direction but I see short covering going into Monday and I would expect price to be around 181.5 again. Just my outlook. Got to watch what BoJ says too they're sneaky little f*ckers.
Yeah, it will be interesting. In any case I prefer taking no positions directly before that, rather see how it plays out and then get in the right way
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #7,447
  • Mar 14, 2015 9:56am Mar 14, 2015 9:56am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Simple and beautiful Btw, thinking I will watch the film you recommended this weekend. It will be my first "real life" this week
Hi Hickson,

You should watch it at 9:26:53 tonight. :nerd:

Have a good weekend.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #7,448
  • Mar 14, 2015 10:07am Mar 14, 2015 10:07am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Hi Hickson, You should watch it at 9:26:53 tonight. :nerd: Have a good weekend.
Oh yeah

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...px-Pi_pie2.jpg
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #7,449
  • Mar 14, 2015 10:08am Mar 14, 2015 10:08am
First goal achieved: Much, much more to go!
Attached Image
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #7,450
  • Mar 14, 2015 10:23am Mar 14, 2015 10:23am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Yeah, it will be interesting. In any case I prefer taking no positions directly before that, rather see how it plays out and then get in the right way
Yeah I plan to be flat during FOMC unless in profit by over 100 pips. Just sat down and did some analysis/charting earlier today. Just the view I came up with, I would assume those short from around 184/5 and even 183 would begin taking profits around 178/9 into FOMC. 181.5 is the balance point between the two and a good place to be before all hell breaks loose. Of course PA is only thing that matters.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,451
  • Mar 14, 2015 12:55pm Mar 14, 2015 12:55pm
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} I see, thanks. I just want to make very clear I didnt start this thread because of my personal enrichment or ego-garbage. If you can help others, go ahead and feel free to contribute. Just saying
I never thought you would of started a thread for ego garb. you are having fun here !

I also enjoy helping others, neither of us get paid for being here, ego tripping is not one who shares to others, free of will, am I missing something?

All Tho you have grown through this experience...........I have............

Thanks
Attached Image
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #7,452
  • Mar 14, 2015 1:14pm Mar 14, 2015 1:14pm
Quoting FX-Ray
Decision points calendar week 48 for GBP/JPY: (1) 191.40/20 (2) 187.60/40 (3) 185.60/40 (4) 183.20/00 (5) 181.20/00 (6) 177.80/60 (7) 175.40/20 (8) 177.80/60 (9) 170.40/20 (10) 167.40/20 (11) 161.80/60 Template attached. {file} {image}
177.80 is considered the median DP for a 48 week period, correct?

and we are currently slightly above that at 178.93 today..............

Are your weekly DP's based of fibs or something else? still reading............

and thanks
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #7,453
  • Mar 14, 2015 1:24pm Mar 14, 2015 1:24pm
Quoting FX-Ray
Decision points calendar week 49 for GBP/JPY: (I) 192.10/91.90 (II) 190.00/89.80 (III) 188.40/20 (IV) 186.00/85.80 (V) 185.30/10 (VI) 184.00/83.80 (VII) 182.30/10 (VIII) 179.60/40 (IX) 176.60/40 (X) 174.10/73.90 (XI) 171.60/40 (XII) 169.80/60 (XIII) 168.90/70 (XIV) 168.00/67.80 (XV) 164.60/40 {file}
I have learned you recalculate your DP's every week................Correct ?
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #7,454
  • Mar 14, 2015 2:12pm Mar 14, 2015 2:12pm
Quoting forexalien
{quote} 177.80 is considered the median DP for a 48 week period, correct? and we are currently slightly above that at 178.93 today.............. Are your weekly DP's based of fibs or something else? still reading............ and thanks

Found it ..........I do it with an S/R seeking algo to erase my subjectivity out of trading to focus on psychology and risk management.

so how do you find the S/R levels?
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #7,455
  • Mar 14, 2015 3:19pm Mar 14, 2015 3:19pm
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} You're welcome nemo Volume is a shrewd affair, so you probably use tick-volume right? In order to use that effectively you need a good broker with multiple major liquidity providers. (BoA, Barcleys, HSBC, Deutsche, etc.) If you may show a picture of your histogram I may give you advice according what I see, for instance 13. February, Friday. You can compare it to mine and you may see the difference. Glad I could helped.
Hi Ray,

My data is from FXCM so not sure where their providers are, but hopefully it's good considering their prevalence in the US.

Here's my graph from Jan-March 2015:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY_Analysis.PNG Size: 71 KB


Thx!
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #7,456
  • Mar 14, 2015 3:34pm Mar 14, 2015 3:34pm
My GA if anyone is looking at this pair as well interesting level here coming up around 1.92/915. Will be watching closely if hold will go long for (hopefully) another 1000 pip run. If breaks will look to go short till 1.894
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 131 KB
  • #7,457
  • Mar 14, 2015 4:12pm Mar 14, 2015 4:12pm
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} You're welcome nemo Volume is a shrewd affair, so you probably use tick-volume right? In order to use that effectively you need a good broker with multiple major liquidity providers. (BoA, Barcleys, HSBC, Deutsche, etc.) If you may show a picture of your histogram I may give you advice according what I see, for instance 13. February, Friday. You can compare it to mine and you may see the difference. Glad I could helped.
Using tick-volume is nonsense on my view. If you insert volume indicator on MT4 or on Interbank charts, the answer is more than clear! You will never watch it !!

MT4 datafeeds are "pipifax"!!!

I agree 100%
  • #7,458
  • Mar 14, 2015 6:53pm Mar 14, 2015 6:53pm
Quoting forexalien
I never thought you would of started a thread for ego garb. you are having fun here ! I also enjoy helping others, neither of us get paid for being here, ego tripping is not one who shares to others, free of will, am I missing something? All Tho you have grown through this experience...........I have............ Thanks {image}
No all fine, no offence towards you, I was just saying.

Quoting forexalien
177.80 is considered the median DP for a 48 week period, correct? and we are currently slightly above that at 178.93 today.............. Are your weekly DP's based of fibs or something else? still reading............ and thanks
Currently Im using a 17 week period; using DP with medians or averages is inaccurate what I can tell you from my experience. I dont use fibs but I find it quite interesting that many times Im advised of the similarities, coincidence? I dont know maybe it proves Im doing something right here

Quoting forexalien
I have learned you recalculate your DP's every week................Correct ?
Thats correct since I consider a week a psychological cycle.

Quoting forexalien
Found it ..........I do it with an S/R seeking algo to erase my subjectivity out of trading to focus on psychology and risk management. so how do you find the S/R levels?
Post #4245
thats part of the algo I use, I hope you understand thats all I can share
  • #7,459
  • Mar 14, 2015 6:56pm Mar 14, 2015 6:56pm
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} No all fine, no offence towards you, I was just saying. {quote} Currently Im using a 17 week period; using DP with medians or averages is inaccurate what I can tell you from my experience. I dont use fibs but I find it quite interesting that many times Im advised of the similarities, coincidence? I dont know maybe it proves Im doing something right here {quote} Thats correct since I consider a week a psychological cycle. {quote} Post #4245 thats part of the...
Numbers were calculated by Euklid
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #7,460
  • Mar 14, 2015 6:56pm Mar 14, 2015 6:56pm
Quoting qFish
{quote} Hi Ray, My data is from FXCM so not sure where their providers are, but hopefully it's good considering their prevalence in the US. Here's my graph from Jan-March 2015: {image} Thx!
Hi Nemo,

Ive seen many histograms, thats what I expected, its looks like data is missing or incomplete. Id like to give you an advice though, try to you use price instead of volume.
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