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Trading is as simple as ABCD

  • #4,441
  • Mar 14, 2015 6:10am Mar 14, 2015 6:10am
Clive,

Thanks for tirelessly posting screen shots and for allowing us to follow on this journey. Thanks to Mr V, Dee50, Divergence and others who keep adding much wisdom. As someone who is studying and learning about the market, this thread has been great so far. I am looking forward to where it is headed . . .

Jason
  • #4,442
  • Mar 14, 2015 6:21am Mar 14, 2015 6:21am
Quoting clivepackham
Took a quick 15 pips there as right on BRN and its the 3rd entry on a well over ADR move so not too keen to hold this one today.. {image} Also this is a wave 5 according to my FSMA so will be quite keen to take the reversal when it happens today...
clive can you show what you mean with wave 5 with fsma?
  • #4,443
  • Mar 14, 2015 6:25am Mar 14, 2015 6:25am
Quoting Divergence
as I think why do I take a risk at all. it goes back to devising a method that viable then backtest my brains out then develop the risk management. by doing this it develops confidence to execute and follow rules and there will be losses that's a given but overall more winners than losers. ask yourself what is my confidence level in what I am doing and if its not a 10 fix it to be a 10

Yep hear what you're saying but more importantly I'm going to act on it as well, as many others are saying the same thing..."Get a trading plan written down with some firm rules then trade it"

Ok going to spend the week end working on a firm set of rules, going to back test it visually and see what I end up with. I'm focusing it around CCI overbought signals in strong down trends and oversold CCI signals in uptrends. I think everyone should know my entry technique by now so won't be going over that again theres plenty of posts covering that. However I'm going to try and identify the conditions that these CCI signals work on a regular basis.

I've found myself getting too clever with my system and taking entries outside my plan and unfortunately they work. So then I take more of them on a regular basis and they start to lose far too often, but look back through a strong trending chart and at the overbought/sold CCI signals and they are very reliable I'd say 70% success but more importantly they allow 10 pip stops with some amazing RR's like 1:2 easily and sometimes much much higher. Unfortunately waiting for these overbought/sold signals means quite often they go without you, tough luck its gonna happen, just accept it and take the next setup.

I'm going to look into when to move to BE as I'm finding I quite often get a BE that then goes onto win, but at the same time theres plenty of times it stops me having a loser. So gotta work out which is the most profitable. Fixed 10 pip initial stop and then either a loser for 10 pips or a bigger winner?? Do I just accept theres gonna be losers end of story but at least they will only be 10 pips???

Lastly do I hold for the longer runners on the 100lwma and be done with it or just take each momentum run on its own merit and as soon as it falters I'm out???

I've tried lots of different methods here but the philosophy has never changed, price can only go up or down so find a strong trender where its clear which way its going then look to join the move on the next pullback. Then the only question is how long is it going to continue in that direction?? Your exit basically...

Anyway I've a lot of work to do so I better get on with it.....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #4,444
  • Mar 14, 2015 7:04am Mar 14, 2015 7:04am
Quoting devontrader
{quote} clive can you show what you mean with wave 5 with fsma?

Yes of course, now remember I'm no expert on Elliot Waves I just use occasional reference to the basic 5 wave pattern and when I took those entries I tried to look up as I do and see what had been occurring so that I could decide whether to hold or grab an Orphan...

The FSMA slopes represent the 5 waves and obeyed the rules , well up to the 5th wave anyway....The 5th wave is not suppose to be longer than wave 3 but there you go, it went another 200 plus pips, can't win em all I guess..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: elliot wave 5.png Size: 99 KB


I was using the waves of the FSMA to identify the higher time frame waves on my 1 minute chart but it doesn't work out perfectly every time...

This is one of the reasons I'm not a great believer in the higher timeframes in that we all seek evidence to support our beliefs and when it works out well , we gather that as evidence and say "There you go you need to look at the higher timeframes" , but when it doesn't we ignore it as it doesn't support our currently held beliefs about trading. Its just a human trait that we have to live with...

I'm the same of course I'm only collecting evidence to back up my beliefs, but I do try very hard to see it from all perspectives from an unbiased point of view, but thats very hard and by the way very rare in any individual. We all look for our beliefs to be backed up by hard evidence and not for evidence to destroy our beliefs, we tend to ignore such counter belief evidence. Thats just how our Human brains work and have evolved over the years.

Try to look at charts with no such beliefs of course and you wouldn't have a clue what to do, you'd be lost...

However that said all I would ask anyone to do is try to look at life without any bias, just try to see it as it is, not as we would like to see it. Its hard but can be done.

For instance look at any chart and try to make one decision only, is it going up or down??? Thats all you have to decide then look to enter in that direction, fairly simple surely, up or down , one of two choices, so how can we get that wrong so many times??? You have to question our beliefs??? Maybe our existing beliefs about trading are wrong???

Now it would take a real man to acknowledge that or even let that thought enter his/her head. God forbid I would suggest that.....?????

Reminds me of something my father once said to me "I'm a stupid man but I know I'm stupid, beware of the stupid man who believes he's clever, they are the most dangerous men of all"
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #4,445
  • Mar 14, 2015 7:42am Mar 14, 2015 7:42am
Hi Clive, I used your cci method yesterday on just EUR USD. I put both the 100ma in colour on and the fast and smooth 120. I only traded if they were in agreement. I used your method of cci entry and enter 2 pips above or below candle. I made 49 pips from 5 trades and was a happy man! I am trying to stick to a 3-1 ratio. I risk 7pips and my target is 21pips. I don't move to Be. Win or lose. If I can stick to this then as long as I win 3 out of 10 trades I'm in the money! Very impressed with the cci entry and never thought I would trade 1 min charts so thank you very much Clive.
  • #4,446
  • Mar 14, 2015 7:55am Mar 14, 2015 7:55am
Quoting iak
Hi Clive, I used your cci method yesterday on just EUR USD. I put both the 100ma in colour on and the fast and smooth 120. I only traded if they were in agreement. I used your method of cci entry and enter 2 pips above or below candle. I made 49 pips from 5 trades and was a happy man! I am trying to stick to a 3-1 ratio. I risk 7pips and my target is 21pips. I don't move to Be. Win or lose. If I can stick to this then as long as I win 3 out of 10 trades I'm in the money! Very impressed with the cci entry and never thought I would trade 1 min charts...
iak, was looking at charts with both ma yesterday also. interesting to look at. were you trading only when the candles were above/below both ma or were you also trading when the candles were IN BETWEEN the ma but both ma were still in agreement?
  • #4,447
  • Mar 14, 2015 8:11am Mar 14, 2015 8:11am
Quoting bapakjason
{quote} iak, was looking at charts with both ma yesterday also. interesting to look at. were you trading only when the candles were above/below both ma or were you also trading when the candles were IN BETWEEN the ma but both ma were still in agreement?
Bit of both.
  • #4,448
  • Mar 14, 2015 8:26am Mar 14, 2015 8:26am
Ok clive now your talking. So if 10 pips is the hard stop make 20 pips the hard target.lets say you only win 4 out of 10 trades per week and risk is 100 per trade and you start is 10000 in acct you would make 200 per week at end of year you made 10000 which 100% return. So lets says its not 40% win rate but 60% end result 40000 and now your making a living. This is the big picture.
  • #4,449
  • Mar 14, 2015 8:36am Mar 14, 2015 8:36am
Quoting bapakjason
Clive, Thanks for tirelessly posting screen shots and for allowing us to follow on this journey. Thanks to Mr V, Dee50, Divergence and others who keep adding much wisdom. As someone who is studying and learning about the market, this thread has been great so far. I am looking forward to where it is headed . . . Jason
Hi Jason

Thanks for the kind comments on behalf of myself and the others you merntioned they are all really good guys and know what they are talking about.

But if you're just learning Forex as you say let me help you cut through all the crap that I've endured over the last 7 years, endless chart watching, expensive training courses, reading thread after thread on here etc etc.

I'm going to give you my take on trading as simply as I can in just 2 charts.

Firstly price can only go up or down so identify a chart thats obviously going one way or the other then look for an opportunity to enter. Now when I say it can only go up or down, unfortunately for us it very rarely moves in a straight line up or down. That would be too simple wouldn't it?? No it moves in waves like my chart below what I've labelled as ABCD, AB the move up BC the move down to our entry point C and then the move we're after CD and our exit at D. This moving in waves appears to throw us all into mad panic and totally confuses us.(me included) But it shouldn't all you have to remember is to buy the bottoms of waves in an uptrend and sell the tops of waves in a downtrend. Simple but NEVER EVER do the opposite.......NEVER buy a top and NEVER sell a bottom.

With me so far?? So how can we identify the tops and bottoms of these waves????

Easy, by using our CCI indicator that identifies the tops and bottoms of our waves for us. Whenever it goes oversold below the -100 level its a bottom of a wave and whenever it goes overbought its the top of a wave. have a look at the chart below where I've identified the tops and bottoms of the waves with the CCI and how it clearly relates to the price waves on the chart. I've used Heiken Ashi candles for clarity to show the wave more clearly. Note how each of these waves have gone to the 200 levels so the C point is -200 and clearly oversold in an uptrend.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CCI identifies bottoms and tops of waves..png Size: 75 KB


I want to keep this very simple but its worth noting that point C where you enter should be coming back to a support level and this one does. It comes back to two of our Key Levels. 1) The daily pivot (purple line) and 2) previous resistance last LH on way down.

Ok so now you know to buy wave bottoms and how to identify them so how do we identify that price is moving up or down strongly??

Easy again our 100lwma which needs to be sloping one way or the other and the steeper its sloping the stronger the trend. Now to help you identify which pair to trade and is trending strongly we have come up with our own little indicator the TTindy which measures the steepness of the 100lwma for you and lists the top 8 trenders from top to bottom so only trade the top 4 at most and we have identified use 30+ as the minimium strength to trade OR use the CSM top right corner and trade the top 2 against the bottom two only. Can also be used for confirmation for TTindy pairs.

OK so lets put this all together to make the "Trading is as Simple as ABCD" trading system on the EURJPY chart below.

First thing to mention is with this 1 minute trading system we only trade the market opens I would say from Frankfurt open to New York close. Asian open can also be traded if it suits your timezone..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: The Trading is as simple as ABCD trading system..png Size: 75 KB

 

  1. Time of day market opens and first 4 hours of session trying to catch the move of the session.
  2. Top 4 of the TTindy only or use CSM top 2 against bottom 2.
  3. Open charts of top 4 and check for CCI to go oversold.
  4. Enter when CCI signals as per my entry technique or with HA candles enter after first candle colour change back with trend high is taken out.
  5. Exit when momentum run ends or when 100lwma changes colour.

Can be traded on any timeframe by the way just change TTindy settings to suit timeframe trading...

Thats about it my friend, keep it simple it can only go up or down but it moves in waves.

Now the only question is, have you got the discipline to trade it???? That is a whole different story all together....

Good luck

PS That post was more to remind me of my system so I don't forget what its all about...

Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #4,450
  • Mar 14, 2015 8:46am Mar 14, 2015 8:46am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Great trade Henry... Come on then? don't keep us in suspense? How much did you get of that 70 plus pip move??? Did you see that great level it was hanging on before it dropped? Ideal to put your stop behind as you did.... {image} Good to see you post a winner, keep it going Henry....
Thanks Clive, yes, I saw this break and retest pattern. I got 56 pips out of it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GA-3-13-NY-won.PNG Size: 89 KB
  • #4,451
  • Mar 14, 2015 8:58am Mar 14, 2015 8:58am
Clive are those regular ha 1 minute bars
  • #4,452
  • Mar 14, 2015 9:06am Mar 14, 2015 9:06am
clive,

appreciate another clear explanation of the system's core/essence. feel like i should write it down a few times for myself, to make sure i really have it down.

jason
  • #4,453
  • Mar 14, 2015 9:17am Mar 14, 2015 9:17am
Quoting iak
Hi Clive, I used your cci method yesterday on just EUR USD. I put both the 100ma in colour on and the fast and smooth 120. I only traded if they were in agreement. I used your method of cci entry and enter 2 pips above or below candle. I made 49 pips from 5 trades and was a happy man! I am trying to stick to a 3-1 ratio. I risk 7pips and my target is 21pips. I don't move to Be. Win or lose. If I can stick to this then as long as I win 3 out of 10 trades I'm in the money! Very impressed with the cci entry and never thought I would trade 1 min charts...
Hi Iak

Thats very interesting as I have been looking at just how powerful my CCI entry system is and I have been looking at some very small spread pairs like EURUSD and GBPUSD even when they are not trending strongly,.

However when they are trading strongly, 100lwma or 120FSMA sloping strongly then the CCI is an awesome entry method, especially if you get in tight to the CCI signal with stops really small like your 7 pips and on a good down trending day( Daily EURUSD is strongest trending pair DOWN) so whenever it moves down I would hold your entries on 100lwma. Have a look at this daily chart of EURUSD as its the top trending pair on my daily TTindy..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 78 KB


Now all we have to do is sell the EURUSD 120FSMA turns down and hold especially after a daily CCI sell signal. Could get in for 10 pip stops and hold forever.....

Heres our EURUSD 1 min chart from yesterday....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM1.png Size: 84 KB


Theres 4 entries that would of survived the day just by entering after every turn down on the 120FSMA. Remember price can only go up or down and as theres a very strong down trend in place on the daily then we should be looking for every turn down on the 120FSMA and stick the old one two on it get to BE and see what survives the day. Every time it turns down could be the last time EURUSD ever turns down again....

This daily chart has been trading down since July 2014 where it gave a nice CCI sell signal on the daily so a nice place to start your 1 minute loading with 10 pips risk price is now 3,000 pips lower.

Not too bad a RR there I guess...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #4,454
  • Mar 14, 2015 9:23am Mar 14, 2015 9:23am
Quoting Divergence
Clive are those regular ha 1 minute bars

Yep they're as regular as it gets, just simple Heiken Ashi. I like them because my whole system is biult around momentum and they are basically momentum indys so show the momentum turning back with the strong trend. Use them after every overbought CCI signal for entry and the opposite for uptrends obviously...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #4,455
  • Mar 14, 2015 9:27am Mar 14, 2015 9:27am
Quoting bapakjason
clive, appreciate another clear explanation of the system's core/essence. feel like i should write it down a few times for myself, to make sure i really have it down. jason

Thanks jason

Good idea to write it down thats why I keep posting the same old stuff, every time I do it brings me back on track. You'd be amazed how many times I get distracted and lose my way. Then one good basic post brings me back on track.

Just remember price only moves up or down but it moves in waves buy the bottoms sell the tops of waves in strong trends.

Its really that simple.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #4,456
  • Mar 14, 2015 9:33am Mar 14, 2015 9:33am
Quoting henryloving
{quote} Thanks Clive, yes, I saw this break and retest pattern. I got 56 pips out of it. {image}

That is one awesome trade Henry and some exit!!!!!

56 pips out of about a 70 pip run. It don't get much better than that my friend, I can assure you. Persevere Henry you are going to be smashing it soon....

Great stuff...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #4,457
  • Mar 14, 2015 9:49am Mar 14, 2015 9:49am
The harenko bars you talked about is every bar the same range like range bara
  • #4,458
  • Mar 14, 2015 9:59am Mar 14, 2015 9:59am
Quoting Divergence
The harenko bars you talked about is every bar the same range like range bara

Yes they're Renko charts which move on price only not time oriented so the ones I've posted are set to 3 pips for each bar or bricks as they seem to call them. We just add a Heiken Ashi indy to the Renko chart and call them Harenko charts.

Quite powerful aren't they?? Being price orientated they show your flags very clearly and also show exits very clearly too plus levels etc. I just struggle being so use to years of staring at normal charts...Can't quite get my brain around them yet but I will...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #4,459
  • Edited 10:19am Mar 14, 2015 10:01am | Edited 10:19am
clivepackham,

Looked around your thread and couldn't find the CCI ( saw 8 and 14 on different posts) and MA in Color (100 )setting used on M5 or M15? Would appreciate your input.

(sure they are somewhere in this comprehensive thread but no luck for me )

Thanks.......want to give this a try....
Keep It Simple
  • #4,460
  • Mar 14, 2015 10:04am Mar 14, 2015 10:04am
Sett them to 7 for eur and have a 10 pip stop for the trigger bar now ypu have a set stop go for 20 and win 5 or 6 out of 10 and make a living. You want to make more do 2 full lots and make a very good living
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