Gordon Gekko's real-time Forex trading calls | Page 5 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Alpari demo account, is it in real real time? 26 replies

My last journal (I'm for real this time) With live calls. 6 replies

Attachments: Gordon Gekko's real-time Forex trading calls
Exit Attachments

Gordon Gekko's real-time Forex trading calls

  • #81
  • Mar 12, 2015 3:53pm Mar 12, 2015 3:53pm
Looking to buy CHF/JPY at 120.85 (limit order), 34 pip stop.
Each losing trade is an opportunity to learn
  • #82
  • Mar 12, 2015 5:57pm Mar 12, 2015 5:57pm
Quoting EarnPipsNow
Looking to buy CHF/JPY at 120.85 (limit order), 34 pip stop.
From a purely classical chart pattern point of view, the CHF/JPY is currently surfing inside an almost perfect rectangle, on the 5 to 15 min charts.

Seems like a breakout is just around the corner...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chfjpy5minutes.jpg Size: 131 KB
Each losing trade is an opportunity to learn
  • #83
  • Mar 12, 2015 8:13pm Mar 12, 2015 8:13pm
Quoting EarnPipsNow
Looking to buy CHF/JPY at 120.85 (limit order), 34 pip stop.
Ok CHF/JPY, I gave you 4 hours to make your move and you are still sleeping, so off you go, you are fired.
Limit order has now been cancelled
Each losing trade is an opportunity to learn
  • #84
  • Mar 12, 2015 8:17pm Mar 12, 2015 8:17pm
You should try looking at the EURUSD if you are going to trade CHFJPY.

Correlation coefficient in the 4h chart is close to 1.000 and it is definitely a more volatile pair.

If there happens to be a breakout, it will show up in the EURUSD chart before CHFJPY chart.
  • #85
  • Edited 8:48pm Mar 12, 2015 8:34pm | Edited 8:48pm
Quoting hippoownyou
You should try looking at the EURUSD if you are going to trade CHFJPY
I am looking at 28 currency pairs every hour and each trading day, Hippoownyou.

But in any case, I cannot pull the trigger if I don't have a clear trading signal from my system.

And yes, watching the charts for 10 hours or more and not finding any trading setup is EXTREMELY boring and frustrating but that's the way it is. I cannot simply say "Hey look, the EUR/NZD is going up fast, let's buy 10 standard lots and see what happens." That's exactly what total amateurs with no plan usually do.

Legendary trader Jesse Livermore once said and I quote:

"And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!" (end of quote)

Quoting hippoownyou
Correlation coefficient in the 4h chart is close to 100 and it is definitely a more volatile pair.
Careful with the correlation thing, it's not reliable at all and some pairs can go from positive correlation to negative correlation in the same day, on the smaller time frames, depending on price action.
Each losing trade is an opportunity to learn
  • #86
  • Mar 12, 2015 8:54pm Mar 12, 2015 8:54pm
Quoting EarnPipsNow
{quote} Careful with the correlation thing, it's not reliable at all and some pairs can go from positive correlation to negative correlation in the same day, on the smaller time frames, depending on price action.
I agree that on smaller time frames it does not work. But if you line up the fundamentals, the 1.000 correlation coefficient on the 4h chart makes bloody good sense. Of course, there is always the event where the correlation fails but with a reason.

Just curious, if you are trading on signals, why not just move to automated algorithmic trading? It would save you 10 hours of staring at your computer screen.
  • #87
  • Edited Mar 13, 2015 3:19pm Mar 12, 2015 9:11pm | Edited Mar 13, 2015 3:19pm
Quoting hippoownyou
Of course, there is always the event where the correlation fails but with a reason.
Precisely.

And that why some deep pocket speculators and even entire corporations lost billions with these "cannot lose" deals.

Because when these "100% correlation trades" get out of sync, oh boy, say hello to "Chapter 11" (non US members can google for that word/expression).

Quoting hippoownyou
Just curious, if you are trading on signals, why not just move to automated algorithmic trading? It would save you 10 hours of staring at your computer screen.
Good question.

Unfortunately, like I said at the beginning of this thread, my system is not 100% automatic, so I cannot program the trading rules on, say TradeStation, and then sip exotic drinks by the pool all day, somewhere quiet in the Caribbean or the South of France, while my system is making money for me on complete auto-pilot.

I wish I could do that (especially at my age, 55 and counting...) but I cannot, the trading rules are not programmable.
Each losing trade is an opportunity to learn
  • #88
  • Mar 13, 2015 12:42pm Mar 13, 2015 12:42pm
Shorting NZD/JPY at 88.88 (limit order), 40 pip stop. If limit order is triggered trade will be closed at exactly 3PM (NY time), win or lose. I never carry trades over the weekend.
Each losing trade is an opportunity to learn
  • #89
  • Mar 13, 2015 1:09pm Mar 13, 2015 1:09pm
Quoting EarnPipsNow
Shorting NZD/JPY at 88.88 (limit order), 40 pip stop. If limit order is triggered trade will be closed at exactly 3PM (NY time), win or lose. I never carry trades over the weekend.
Short NZD/JPY position is now active. It does not have time to move that much but anything is still possible.
Each losing trade is an opportunity to learn
  • #90
  • Mar 13, 2015 2:08pm Mar 13, 2015 2:08pm
Quoting EarnPipsNow
Shorting NZD/JPY at 88.88 (limit order), 40 pip stop. If limit order is triggered trade will be closed at exactly 3PM (NY time), win or lose.
Trade closed at 3PM at 88.86, 2 pip profit.

Oh well, that should be enough for a box of nice Cuban cigars.

By the way, I wonder if that no-good Bud Fox still has connections at the airport, I am out of cigars...

Jokes aside, trading results for this week (and total profit/loss since beginning of this thread) will be given in a few minutes.
Each losing trade is an opportunity to learn
  • #91
  • Edited 3:16pm Mar 13, 2015 3:01pm | Edited 3:16pm
Trading results for week ending March 13, 2015.

Looking to buy GBP/CHF at 1.4889 (limit order), 29 pip stop: +166 pips
Bought GBP/USD at 1.5130, 37 pip stop: 37 pip loss.
Shorting EUR/JPY at 128.50, 54 pip stop: break-even
Short GBP/AUD at 1.9732 (limit order), 61 pip stop: order cancelled at midnight (closing time for all pending orders).
Long USD/CHF at 1.0073 (limit order), 39 pip stop: order cancelled.
Short CHF/JPY at 120.45 (limit order), 55 pip stop: break-even.
Looking to buy CHF/JPY at 120.85 (limit order), 34 pip stop: order cancelled.
Shorting NZD/JPY at 88.88 (limit order), 40 pip stop: +2 pips

Total for this week: +131 pips (166 - 37 + 2).
Total since beginning: -128 pips (-259 + 131).

Notice that it took only one single trade (the GBP/CHF trade) to reduce the drawdown by more than 50%. In trading, the winning percentage is irrelevant. What truly counts is not the number of winning trades (versus the losing ones) but how much extra money the trader puts in his pocket at the end of each month, quarter or year. Trading is a marathon not a sprint.

Notice also that except for the GBP/AUD pending order (the price came 4 pips near my limit order and then moved almost 500 pips in the expected direction without me), cancelling trades that do not behave as expected after a reasonable period of time was (and is) a good idea (I saved a total of 73 pips that way, in this particular case).

See you next week and have a good weekend.
Over and out.
Each losing trade is an opportunity to learn
  • #92
  • Mar 13, 2015 7:35pm Mar 13, 2015 7:35pm
Hello Sir,
The profound trading insight you've emphasized is perhaps Principle Number 1 any aspiring trader needs to Internalize -
Quoting EarnPipsNow
..the biggest challenge for any trader is not to find a good entry point but the optimal EXIT point. In fact, a few studies have shown that it is possible to make money even with completely random entry points, assuming you have the right exit strategy.
It is astoundingly supported by that even 'random entry - proper EXIT' small yet proven profitability has been experimentally verified! btw similar fact is mentioned in a book by a trader/mentor of some acclaim who goes by the alias "Igrok", where he gives arbitrary price level as a possible entry point.
Also Your motto Manage your losses first etc. is certainly even more critical - so can be taken as Principle Number 0 for less experienced trader.

Thanks for putting emphasis on CENTRAL PRINCIPLES of trading profitably

Sincerely, Best of luck

Isingh
Siddhartha G
  • #93
  • Mar 14, 2015 3:02pm Mar 14, 2015 3:02pm
Quoting Isingh
Hello Sir, The profound trading insight you've emphasized is perhaps Principle Number 1 any aspiring trader needs to Internalize - {quote} It is astoundingly supported by that even 'random entry - proper EXIT' small yet proven profitability has been experimentally verified! btw similar fact is mentioned in a book by a trader/mentor of some acclaim who goes by the alias "Igrok", where he gives arbitrary price level as a possible entry point. Also Your motto Manage your losses first etc. is certainly even more critical - so can be taken as Principle...
Thank you Sir.

I must admit that I was totally shocked when I learned that it was possible to make money even with random entry points. I said to myself : "What? What kind of nonsense is that??"

And that's when I started to realize that an exit strategy is even more important than trying to time the market. But both are important of course.

The best of luck to you too.
Each losing trade is an opportunity to learn
  • #94
  • Edited 5:00pm Mar 14, 2015 4:12pm | Edited 5:00pm
Quoting EarnPipsNow
{quote} ... I must admit that I was totally shocked when I learned that it was possible to make money even with random entry points. I said to myself : "What? What kind of nonsense is that??" And that's when I started to realize that an exit strategy is even more important than trying to time the market. But both are important of course. The best of luck to you too.
Let us assume the Analytic Approach for a while - after all before You, Me or million other traders and firms adopt a trading strategy -
WE ALL HAVE TO FIRST OBSERVE AND ANALYZE THE MARKET , then to reach analytic experimentally-founded conclusions.
So this qualifies as Principle Number 2
FIRST OBSERVE AND ANALYZE THE MARKET , then to reach analytic and experimentally-founded conclusions.

The phenomenon of some profits even with Random entries and well planned analytic EXIT [Random entries both in time and in the direction of position!!] method can be explained by the Central Idea of Trading in partially random markets:

The Ratchet principle or the one-way Turnstile principle

Consider a turnstile installed in the middle of a crowded passageway with a large number of people
walking RANDOMLY in BOTH OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS. People can either walk avoiding it or go through the turnstile
with one condition: the turnstile can rotate and move in only ONE DIRECTION. (such devices are installed in every metro or underground train station in the world)

What happens is that despite the two directions of flow of the Random Walkers (pun fully intended! Random Walk ... )
the turnstile will Prevent movement in unwanted direction and allow and ACCUMULATE MOVEMENTS in the wanted direction.
This is in analogy to CUTTING LOSSES SHORT-ER and allowing WINS for LONGER, even if the winning movements of price and losses are initiated randomly - like in random entries, the good traders by making NON-random choices, biased in favor of allowing longer wins, become profitable.

By the way, in every mechanical Swiss or Japanese watch and in the well known one-directional wrench , there is a ratchet
Attached Images
Siddhartha G
  • #95
  • Mar 14, 2015 4:29pm Mar 14, 2015 4:29pm
Quoting Isingh
This is in analogy to CUTTING LOSSES SHORT-ER and allowing WINS for LONGER, even if the winning movements of price and losses are initiated randomly - like in random entries, the good traders by making NON-random choices, biased in favor of allowing longer wins, become profitable.
You are absolutely correct.

But this is ONLY possible because the market itself is NOT random, to begin with.

Otherwise we would all make a killing at the roulette table, for example, just by following this random-entry strategy.
Each losing trade is an opportunity to learn
  • #96
  • Mar 14, 2015 4:44pm Mar 14, 2015 4:44pm
The word "random" is heavily over-applied in discussions of market randomness. In fact the researchers of "randomness" i.e. physicists, statisticians and mathematicians
have developed a powerful methods of QUALIFYING and measuring the degree and balance between unexpectedness vs. determinism in random processes.
E.g. stochastic processes describing the time-series analysis of price movements are remarkably DEPENDENT, that is, there is an observed correlation between sequence of earlier data already known and the data that occurs later for long periods of time (from seconds and minutes to years !) during the generation of partially random price series.

Anyone can grab a basic intr book or tutorial to stochastic processes.

* Nothing to do, though, with stupidly and inappropriately named ""stochastic"" indicator .

Returning once more to the Ratchet Principle : it is this beneficial asymmetry in ratchet movement that allows climbers to scale huge mountain walls with climbing ratchets
without falling - so does the trader metaphorically 'climbs and rises" in small steps to large accumulated equity.
Attached Images
Siddhartha G
  • #97
  • Mar 14, 2015 4:57pm Mar 14, 2015 4:57pm
Quoting EarnPipsNow
{quote} You are absolutely correct. But this is ONLY possible because the market itself is NOT random, to begin with. Otherwise we would all make a killing at the roulette table, for example, just by following this random-entry strategy.
As the old joke goes: "In one word - I agree with you. In two words - I have to somewhat clarify that agreeing of mine."

The market is NOT fully random. It has strong traits of randomness and strong traits of correlation and determinism.

Also, there are actually NO completely "random" events in the universe. Neither a coin toss, nor a roulette spin are actually truly random.
Not only that, but the second fact has been dramatically proven (and rather painfully to casino owners, one should say) and still is being proved time and again by "interested observers" who beat roulette-operations by observing slight REGULARITIES in the outcomes.

The same, basically, what traders do -
by observing and ANLYSING MUCH STRONGER correlations and MORE OBVIOUS REGULARITIES in the markets.
Siddhartha G
  • #98
  • Mar 14, 2015 5:05pm Mar 14, 2015 5:05pm
Quoting Isingh
the trader metaphorically 'climbs and rises" in small steps to large accumulated equity.
Absolutely, that's the power of compounding.

One penny invested at 4% interest at the birth of Jesus would have bought 8,190 balls of gold in 1990, each "ball" being equal to the weight of this planet.

At $37K per kilo of gold, that's a lot of cheeseburgers to me.
Each losing trade is an opportunity to learn
  • #99
  • Edited 6:58pm Mar 14, 2015 5:21pm | Edited 6:58pm
Quoting Isingh
The market is NOT fully random
There are basically 2 moments when this randomness stops (or at least loses its intensity):

1: When the market trends, and in that case we buy/short after a breakout and let our profits run.

2: When the market is trading within a well defined range. In that scenario we profit by buying at support and shorting at resistance, with a tight stop above/below these levels.

Anything in between is just noise and randomness, and trying to predict what traders will do next in that market environment becomes increasingly difficult, if not impossible.
Each losing trade is an opportunity to learn
  • #100
  • Mar 14, 2015 5:39pm Mar 14, 2015 5:39pm
From your posts on your trading style I gather that your TF-s are probably 1H or higher. (I may be incorrect on this though).

Yet you describe your quite a 'labor-intensive' trading day - observing the prices from morn till the US 11-45 PM.

With all that attention payed - It seems you could easily employ as well the shorter-then-1H timeframes. What's your view or feeling about these TF-s ?
Siddhartha G
0 traders viewing now