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  • #61
  • Mar 11, 2015 7:11pm Mar 11, 2015 7:11pm
Quoting Gwan
i think the metaphor has gone too far, but anyway, there are too many traders out there. and to understand the market means to understand 6 billions people..... ruling the worlds sound easier...
hmm, I am thinking the same to be honest, seeing how many scientists failed miserably in this domain, as they could calculate the trajectory of missiles, but they couldn't calculate human emotions in the next few seconds let's say.

in my personal opinion, market is God, God's will is the combination of all human emotions in the market, and it doesn't give a flying shit about mathematics.

not saying the OP's idea doesn't work, at least for himself, I am just saying, I have my own view about the market and how to trade, and it doesn't concern about math, except plus and minus of a float number when calculating the P/L of course.
  • #62
  • Mar 12, 2015 1:01am Mar 12, 2015 1:01am
Quoting zxdtrader
{quote}in my personal opinion, market is God
God has many names
Attached Image
  • #63
  • Mar 12, 2015 1:30am Mar 12, 2015 1:30am
Even for those big banks the market is out of reach for at least 95% of the time; the market is beyond anyone's single control at least 95% of the time; and still god probably had a formula or a basic simple rule when he created the universe; something that will make and create order and free will.
  • #64
  • Mar 12, 2015 1:45am Mar 12, 2015 1:45am
Yes it is the sum of all participants, but someone has more influence on those participants behavior. And someone can even force another to behave in a certain way. If i want to move a truck, I wont be trying to do it by myself, relying on my own limited power. Instead , I am going to try and convince all of you to do it for me
Some of you wont be willing to do it for free, so I'll have to sacrifice some bucks and pay you sometimes, so you get used to move the truck every once in a while, whenver I have the need to, but what I wont tell you is that I have few billions on that truck that I need to unload at my new place
  • #65
  • Mar 12, 2015 3:23am Mar 12, 2015 3:23am
Quoting feline207
Yes it is the sum of all participants, but someone has more influence on those participants behavior. And someone can even force another to behave in a certain way. If i want to move a truck, I wont be trying to do it by myself, relying on my own limited power. Instead , I am going to try and convince all of you to do it for me Some of you wont be willing to do it for free, so I'll have to sacrifice some bucks and pay you sometimes, so you get used to move the truck every once in a while, whenver I have the need to, but what I wont tell you is...
Actually everyone knows that you have a lot of money in that truck and this is why they help you push it with the hope that they will get a small part of that at your destination; only that some push it forward and others are standing in front of the truck being run over; and they do this because they don't want to see simple facts as where it is going, when to push and where to push from; i want some of that money so let me hang on to the truck.
  • #66
  • Mar 12, 2015 3:51am Mar 12, 2015 3:51am
Happy Trading!

I use a long term Fundamental approach and get 87%+ hit rate. S/R is all the technical analysis I use. It's all about Supply and Demand, and a hell of a lot of geopolitics.
  • #67
  • Mar 12, 2015 4:05am Mar 12, 2015 4:05am
Hi mark72,

Pls continue your interesting topic and show us how to trade? Thanks in advance. Greatly appreciate your time and efforts.

Best Regards,
LearnAlways
I only know I know nothing
  • #68
  • Mar 12, 2015 5:26am Mar 12, 2015 5:26am
Quoting mark72
{quote} Actually everyone knows that you have a lot of money in that truck and this is why they help you push it with the hope that they will get a small part of that at your destination; only that some push it forward and others are standing in front of the truck being run over; and they do this because they don't want to see simple facts as where it is going, when to push and where to push from; i want some of that money so let me hang on to the truck.
Well yeah you are totally right, everyone wants to grab a bite,and theere lies the problem - there are others in front of it, they slow down our vehicle, or even stop and reverse it faster than we can react, it does not drive ina straight line, but goes here and there. Sometimes the terrain is pretty rough, and if we push against a slope it takes more power, so things can get ugly the moment we have ran out of steam. And when you dont know exactly how much power is applied against and for the desired direction, how much more power could join the two-sides pushing that truck, and if i have to take some money from one to pay the other one to continue pushing that truck, one thing is sure- there will be victims and there will be blood. We can see where things are heading now, but what about the next second,minute,hour? Where is that truck going, which route is it going to take, a short one or long, fast or slow. But please continue with your lessons, I find your points very intersting!
  • #69
  • Mar 12, 2015 6:27am Mar 12, 2015 6:27am
Quoting feline207
{quote} ...We can see where things are heading now, but what about the next second,minute,hour? Where is that truck going, which route is it going to take, a short one or long, fast or slow...
This is something very few traders understand and see in the price; they always are trying to predict the market by various methods when they should only focus on the now moment, the point, the reference and on the other side to observe change in conditions of the market; when i enter a buy trade i do not think how many pips i will get out of it or how fast is it going to move up and reach a specific number of pips but i do observe the market, the price and when the conditions are changed i get out and not hoping it will reverse again and go my way.
As for the little experiment from yesterday, i have traded this morning the EU pair and only took long trades; because i can not show just the number of pips, i will leave the profit column in place and black out other information on the statement; i usually do not take only one side like buy or sell.
http://i1382.photobucket.com/albums/...psjyusmqzs.jpg
  • #70
  • Mar 12, 2015 6:37am Mar 12, 2015 6:37am
Quoting mark72
As for the little experiment from yesterday, i have traded this morning the EU pair and only took long trades; because i can not show just the number of pips, i will leave the profit column in place and black out other information on the statement; i usually do not take only one side like buy or sell.
The results seem to me like extreme scalping with high volume (lot size) on a low spread broker.
Trading is the hardest way to make easy money...
  • #71
  • Edited 6:43am Mar 12, 2015 6:41am | Edited 6:43am
My trades are scalping the market; in this statement i used smaller lots than usual but my usual lots are according to my account size; i never risk too much on a trade; as for the spreads they are small also because of my account for example i have around 0.9 for EU but i traded like this when the spread was 1.4-1.7.
  • #72
  • Mar 12, 2015 6:44am Mar 12, 2015 6:44am
Quoting mark72
{quote} This is something very few traders understand and see in the price; they always are trying to predict the market by various methods when they should only focus on the now moment, the point, the reference and on the other side to observe change in conditions of the market; when i enter a buy trade i do not think how many pips i will get out of it or how fast is it going to move up and reach a specific number of pips but i do observe the market, the price and when the conditions are changed i get out and not hoping it will reverse again and...
eurusd is pretty much trending last days, first an extreme downard bias, then today they are killing it on the bull side, last shorts got a nice funeral, one can trade that behavior profitably with 1 month trading experience, the most lagging indicator trend system taken from any forum can do the job. But it rarely has that strong trend bias. Problem is when the chop monster gets back. I am not against your system, because I dont' know anything about it, however - we are all looking for method that can survive anything (except a crash of market?), not just make some to give it back sometime later. So you focus on the new moment and look for change in conditions? You have to measure that somehow. Problem with now is, we cannot trade the now. Positions are opened and closed between two points of time, and between those two points lies some degree of uncertainty and risk. So we always enter now and exit in the future, doesn't matter how close, or how far. So how is an edge obtained without knowing anything about the future price trajectory? I am not trying to be excessively skeptical, but rather to motivate us to look further. So back to the topic - perhaps give us insights how do you determine current condition and how do you measure the changes.
  • #73
  • Edited 8:03am Mar 12, 2015 7:59am | Edited 8:03am
I do like to read other traders opinion as long as they are pertinent and about trading and i read all the posts even if i do not have time or will to reply to all but focus my posts on trading matters; ranging market is tradable as long as the range is larger than your spread because a trader cannot expect to profit from a very low volatility market; every cycle, up and down move can not be traded and probably that is why new traders are looking for the perfect system; make the balance go your way by not trading every up and down or very low volatility.
The positions are valid between two prices and not two points in time and this is very hard to grasp; you trade the price not the time and i should start another thread for the time and how important it is or it is not at one point in trading but my energy and time is limited; future price projection is given by the price but that does not mean that we need to predict the level and stay in the market no matter what happens in between.
To apply the simple things in trading which will just be bizare at first because of simplicity, i should write about the last dimension and attractor and a few other trading related information.

Edit addon: traders fear that they will enter a position and the market will stop moving sometimes; if a trader enters a positions in the direction of the trend, it has the most bigest edge; for the truck analogy earlier, the truck will not stop in an instant but will first slow down.
  • #74
  • Mar 12, 2015 9:51am Mar 12, 2015 9:51am
I really want to wait you to lay all your information before further discussion, but I just cant wait to bring some topics for a hot discussion and see what you think LD . We already mentioned the word trend couple of times though. By what I understand you want to focus on now, because future is uncertain and past does not matter. However, if there is a trend that you see, it is already in the past. The moment you drop yourself at the market, what is the trend? Price can immediately go against you by a lot of pips. First, I really want to know your understanding of trends, because without a defintion or objective way of measuring, saying that there is a trend or assuming we see a trend means nothing. If there is a trend, it has to be measured somehow and also it is always part of past. Lets assume we have a trend and we want to enter in the direction of the trend, we immediately commit ourself to the belief that the trend is going to continue, which is translated into the future. So if we are trading, entering now and exiting at some later time, and we also observe what we call a trend. Then we already have analysis of past, actions in the present and expectations for the future. Now, I am not an expert in your theories, but as far as I have read Crucial posts and some others, some people have the proposition for using some line, some price level as a reference point. Does not matter if it is daily open/ weekly/ hourly/ session or whatever. If we have a level and price is above that level and we consider BULLISH bias because of that, we are already relying on history and positioning for the future. We assume that because price has been above a line, it still has a statistical bias to continue in direction further up, and we enter our buys targeting continuation of the so called trend in to the future, so we have an expectation. That is what I dont undestand guys, how do you conclude that statistical bias? Price in relation to a line or whatever, does not give any hint about the next milisecond or whatever.
Sorry if I am tedious, but there is either something I have got completely wrong, otherwise perhaps we need to clarify even futher and perhaps illustrate. Thanks!
  • #75
  • Mar 12, 2015 10:31am Mar 12, 2015 10:31am
Quoting feline207
That is what I dont undestand guys, how do you conclude that statistical bias? Price in relation to a line or whatever, does not give any hint about the next milisecond or whatever. Sorry if I am tedious, but there is either something I have got completely wrong, otherwise perhaps we need to clarify even futher and perhaps illustrate.
There is no way to identify the future trend (even for a few next seconds, with an exeption for the minutes after a major high imapct news is released). But there are many ways to identify the trend in the past. For example, a higher high followed by a higher low means that during such period of time the trend was upward. Having this said, can we deduce that the trend would continue upward? not for sure, but probabilistically we can expect to see one more higher high for which we may enter a long position to make some profit.
Trading is the hardest way to make easy money...
  • #76
  • Mar 12, 2015 11:09am Mar 12, 2015 11:09am
Quoting MathTrader7
{quote} There is no way to identify the future trend (even for a few next seconds, with an exeption for the minutes after a major high imapct news is released). But there are many ways to identify the trend in the past. For example, a higher high followed by a higher low means that during such period of time the trend was upward. Having this said, can we deduce that the trend would continue upward? not for sure, but probabilistically we can expect to see one more higher high for which we may enter a long position to make some profit.
Probability to see one more high. How high, where do we place a stop, do we place exact stop?
  • #77
  • Edited 12:00pm Mar 12, 2015 11:40am | Edited 12:00pm
Quoting feline207
{quote} Probability to see one more high. How high, where do we place a stop, do we place exact stop?
Here is an example:

I observe the following situation, so I expect to see another higher high for which I will open a long position, and I set stop loss and take profit according to my money management (I set the take profit to be the difference between the first and the second high, and according to my R:R ratio, I set the stop loss. Then, I calculate the lot size based on how much I want to risk on this trade and the stop loss distance I calculated in the previous step).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.png Size: 23 KB

Here is what happened next:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.png Size: 20 KB
Trading is the hardest way to make easy money...
  • #78
  • Mar 12, 2015 12:05pm Mar 12, 2015 12:05pm
Quoting feline207
Problem with now is, we cannot trade the now. We always enter now and exit in the future, doesn't matter how close, or how far.
Positions are opened and closed between two points of time, and between those two points ....

With appreciation of your laconic description - PRECISE, DEEP AND SHORT.

This depth can be also applied to a whole of our life - every moment, every decision and even whole life itself...

May be will adopt "Problem with now is, we cannot trade the now. We always enter now and exit in the future, doesn't matter how close, or how far..." as a motto ....
Siddhartha G
  • #79
  • Mar 12, 2015 12:27pm Mar 12, 2015 12:27pm
Great thread Mark. This is the same stuff I was covering in my thread "DNA, Dimensions & Trading" back in February (now deleted). Keep it up, you are moving forward in the right direction.

sis.

Quoting Isingh
{quote}roblem with now is, we cannot trade the now. We always enter now and exit in the future, doesn't matter how close, or how far..."

There is no such thing as the future. Really think about what time is and why (time in the common use of the word)was it created... Is it truly linear?

No trader ever exits in the future just like no trader ever enters in the past(unless they have a time machine).

You enter in the now and exit in the now.

sis.
  • #80
  • Mar 12, 2015 12:43pm Mar 12, 2015 12:43pm
Excelent thread. Subscribed.
I always thought that indicators are not for trading.
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