Trading is as simple as ABCD | Page 221 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Gartley/bat/crab/butterfly/abcd/three Drives Pattern Indicator Help 50 replies

Abcd fibo retracement trading journal 109 replies

ABCD - My way 122 replies

ABCD Fibo 82 replies

abcd patterns 1 reply

Attachments: Trading is as simple as ABCD
Exit Attachments

Trading is as simple as ABCD

  • #4,401
  • Mar 12, 2015 2:42am Mar 12, 2015 2:42am
Quoting clivepackham
Just remember you're gonna get a lot of false starts and quite a few losers but only 10 to 20 pips with luck but your winners will hopefully be a lot bigger and use the AB move from the higher timeframe as your target but always be ready to take your profits...
Hi Clive

You still have to balance:

- the quicker turn on fsma that might give false starts before reverting to trend, you are quite nimble in and out perhaps quicker than most (certainly me) the BC move in your last gbpaud chart a good example of fsma CT signal reverting to move down
- getting in early on the most likely suspects for us is the aud, jpy, cad, nzd crosses with gbp and eur i.e. the larger adr pairs
- how much its run in Asian session

and last but certainly not least:

- we continually get to consider the top trenders and most days they will kick in with big moves, especially when there is strength/weakness across the board. The problem is when you are in the wrong pair or in a top TT that fizzles out and others come up.

I'm still using the 100lwma on charts and TT but my biggest work in progress is to let trades on this method run longer. We are 200 up on gbpaud sell from 1.9748 but thats a different method with different expectations. But surely on this method with strength/weakness across the board the expectations should be to exit trades (from one two entries) with 50 pips or more. If you get to 20 and out at BE so be it, the method is to try and catch the TOP TRENDERS from a small stop. That doesn't imply small 10-20 pip trades to me.
  • #4,402
  • Mar 12, 2015 2:47am Mar 12, 2015 2:47am
By the way if you are a higher timeframe trader and believe you know which way its gonna go then use it to enter in the direction of your move. Wait for the 120FSMA to turn your way then give it the old one two.....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #4,403
  • Mar 12, 2015 3:16am Mar 12, 2015 3:16am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Hi Clive You still have to balance: - the quicker turn on fsma that might give false starts before reverting to trend, you are quite nimble in and out perhaps quicker than most (certainly me) the BC move in your last gbpaud chart a good example of fsma CT signal reverting to move down - getting in early on the most likely suspects for us is the aud, jpy, cad, nzd crosses with gbp and eur i.e. the larger adr pairs - how much its run in Asian session and last but certainly not least: - we continually get to consider the top trenders and most...
Hi Mr V.

Yes I know what you mean but I'm getting tired of catching moves holding in the belief they will go and they don't.. The reason is when you look at the probabilities of catching bigger runs they are quite slim, of course helped by some good analysis as per your post, strength across the board etc but not guaranteed unfortunately. But of course we all know that.

My point is though that its a probability game and nothing much else, with all the best higher timeframe analysis in the world, and you're about the best I know, its still difficult to not only catch them but to hold them too...

I'm just thinking all these moves start the same way with a turn down/up on the 120FSMA so if we systematically take these entries as they come then we will definitely catch your runner and hopefully identify it by the ABCD move from a higher timeframe then you're away.

Don't worry I'm not giving up on our original plan to catch the LO and NYO breakouts just catching them a different way, I'm still on the lookout for those runners just not so convinced we can catch em and hold em....When I catch my entry I will be looking up to see what I've caught, is it on the 5 min TTindy?? Is it a CD move from a higher timeframe?? Is there strength/weakness across the board??

I'm just hoping to get in early on the first pullback whatever happens then go from there, throw a net over everything and see what we've caught theory.

But I'm still with you just one of my many excursions looking for that elusive strategy that sits with me perfectly and this is getting close... very close..

Heres another awesome move on USDCHF this time, how we gonna catch em Mr V.????
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHFM1.png Size: 66 KB
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #4,404
  • Mar 12, 2015 3:33am Mar 12, 2015 3:33am
Suggestion - trade 2 lots. First lot is an orphan trade and second lot move to B/E as soon as possible and let it run or stop out.
  • #4,405
  • Mar 12, 2015 3:33am Mar 12, 2015 3:33am
Hi Vantage:
I thought I understood Daylight Savings time, but now I'm not sure. Right now the Forex Factory market shows London's current time to be 8:28AM their local time. So has the London forex market been open for about 28 minutes or 1hour & 28 minutes.
I thought both London & NY traded an hour early due to DST, while Tokyo traded at its normal time (Tokyo not observing DST). Can some one explain in terms an old man can understand? Thanks so much in advance.
  • #4,406
  • Mar 12, 2015 3:49am Mar 12, 2015 3:49am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Hi Mr V. Yes I know what you mean but I'm getting tired of catching moves holding in the belief they will go and they don't.. The reason is when you look at the probabilities of catching bigger runs they are quite slim, of course helped by some good analysis as per your post, strength across the board etc but not guaranteed unfortunately. But of course we all know that. My point is though that its a probability game and nothing much else, with all the best higher timeframe analysis in the world, and you're about the best I know, its still...
Hi Clive

Again our fave pairs will have adr's in 150-200 pip range should be enough to get bigger moves. Would I have gotten your swissy sell, more than likely not. I don't even have the chart set up and never look at them as it so rarely features. At the end of the move its bottom of your TT. No idea where on TT it was when the first two moves started. In general I'd have been looking at the pairs then closer to the top of TT.

But how to catch pairs at the start when TT scores are much lower.

In and around LO in particular (US open I'm always looking for London direction to continue) I'm looking for agreement even if TT scores are not yet showing trend i.e. say 20-30. I posted charts yesterday on a trade I didn't take as there was no agreement. See todays chart,

- eur pairs all above their ma's so there is agreement (eurcad also but not shown)
- euraud perfect ab move up, test of range 1.3825 ish, small BC retrace lower to set up buy
- euraud top of TT now

So as long as euraud was near top of TT I'd like that move, if not ej also a likely contender. As to exit I'd be looking still at euraud in major downtrend on D chart and this could be a CT trend trade and merely a bounce off the Sep '14 lows. You don't know so maybe 20 pips up and out, or at BE. Perhaps you get sell signals later that run. I've hated to mention higher TF's, there will regularly be decent CT HTF moves that are trades per your system but if you are taking no cognizance of higher TF then you'll have to accept some smaller/BE trades. The bigger moves will generally be when you method in line with higher TF.

PS we are looking for euraud and definitely gbpaud to revert lower.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MetaTrader - Pepperstone.png Size: 127 KB
  • #4,407
  • Mar 12, 2015 3:57am Mar 12, 2015 3:57am
Quoting gmcc
Hi Vantage: I thought I understood Daylight Savings time, but now I'm not sure. Right now the Forex Factory market shows London's current time to be 8:28AM their local time. So has the London forex market been open for about 28 minutes or 1hour & 28 minutes. I thought both London & NY traded an hour early due to DST, while Tokyo traded at its normal time (Tokyo not observing DST). Can some one explain in terms an old man can understand? Thanks so much in advance.
London open for 28 mins as per your post.

US has already moved their daylight savings time and London will move 1hr at the end of the month. They move about 2 weeks apart from each other.

Asia doesn't have daylight savings, Aussie does I think but not normally awake for that and never bothered.
  • #4,408
  • Mar 12, 2015 4:01am Mar 12, 2015 4:01am
Thank you Vantage for your quick response.
One more question if I may. Since the Frank open has been so active do you trade it?
  • #4,409
  • Mar 12, 2015 4:03am Mar 12, 2015 4:03am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Hi Clive Again our fave pairs will have adr's in 150-200 pip range should be enough to get bigger moves. Would I have gotten your swissy sell, more than likely not. I don't even have the chart set up and never look at them as it so rarely features. At the end of the move its bottom of your TT. No idea where on TT it was when the first two moves started. In general I'd have been looking at the pairs then closer to the top of TT. But how to catch pairs at the start when TT scores are much lower. In and around LO in particular (US open I'm...
Oh what I forgot to add was IF its going to be a bigger trade then you'd be expecting over whelming strength/weakness across the board. We've all seen it where you have TT top 4 say gbp or 6 or more gbp pairs featuring in top 8. When aud/jpy etc agreeing against eur and gbp there can also be good moves.

So the more agreement the better for letting a trade run.
  • #4,410
  • Mar 12, 2015 4:05am Mar 12, 2015 4:05am
Quoting gmcc
Thank you Vantage for your quick response. One more question if I may. Since the Frank open has been so active do you trade it?
I have revised my rules from some prompting by Clive a while back. Basic rule now if I see across the board S/W I'm interested. That seems to trump everything, S/W then focus on top 4 of TT.
  • #4,411
  • Mar 12, 2015 4:41am Mar 12, 2015 4:41am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Oh what I forgot to add was IF its going to be a bigger trade then you'd be expecting over whelming strength/weakness across the board. We've all seen it where you have TT top 4 say gbp or 6 or more gbp pairs featuring in top 8. When aud/jpy etc agreeing against eur and gbp there can also be good moves. So the more agreement the better for letting a trade run.
Hmmm but how many have we caught between us?? I don't know about you but I've been trying to catch a runner for a long time now and probably caught a mere handful and certainly not really taken advantage of it because its not till its over you know its gonna happen. My one big success was when we were watching GBPJPY together and I creamed 600 odd pips from it in a single session, but that was once in 9 months...

Do you have much success catching these runners??? Would you mind sharing the sort of success you're having catching anything over 30 pips??

Not trying to challenge you just making the point that dispite chasing them for 9 months I've had very limited success which is why I'm starting to look to catch smaller runs on a regular basis hence the change to the 120FSMA. I'm thinking take the trade then if strength appears or it promotes itself top of 5 min TTindy and stays there then look into holding, otherwise just take the momentum move and be done with it..

Anyways I'm not giving up on the idea of catching runners just trying to be a bit more realistic with my own psychology, mindset and performance up to now..

Lets have a skype call sometime and discuss some ideas., where theres a will theres a way, as my old Dad use to say..
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #4,412
  • Mar 12, 2015 5:37am Mar 12, 2015 5:37am
Hi guys, i've another stupid problem...
I wanted to try the new method by clive with the 120fsma but the indicator i found in this thread, i don't know why, don't work... How it's possible? I see the indicator in the MT4 platform but if i put it in the chart nothing happens
  • #4,413
  • Mar 12, 2015 5:50am Mar 12, 2015 5:50am
Quoting Vantage
PS we are looking for euraud and definitely gbpaud to revert lower. {image}
  • #4,414
  • Mar 12, 2015 6:10am Mar 12, 2015 6:10am
Quoting Vantage
{quote}

I'm on it Boss, are you???

Unfortunately missed the old one two but have to work sometime....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDM1.png Size: 55 KB
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #4,415
  • Mar 12, 2015 6:15am Mar 12, 2015 6:15am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} I'm on it Boss, are you??? Unfortunately missed the old one two but have to work sometime.... {image}
Yep got some pips after revert back to trend. Was happy to exit as gbp not that weak across the board and of course we have a sell at +250 or so still hanging around.

If US continues much lower then exit will look crappy but hopefully there'll be another chance later.

So you might have gathered I'm not only looking at across board S/W for entry but now also on exit.
  • #4,416
  • Mar 12, 2015 6:15am Mar 12, 2015 6:15am
Took a quick 15 pips there as right on BRN and its the 3rd entry on a well over ADR move so not too keen to hold this one today..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDM1.png Size: 56 KB


Also this is a wave 5 according to my FSMA so will be quite keen to take the reversal when it happens today...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #4,417
  • Mar 12, 2015 6:19am Mar 12, 2015 6:19am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Yep got some pips after revert back to trend. Was happy to exit as gbp not that weak across the board and of course we have a sell at +250 or so still hanging around. If US continues much lower then exit will look crappy but hopefully there'll be another chance later. So you might have gathered I'm not only looking at across board S/W for entry but now also on exit.

Ha Ha looks like we crossed over posts here but funny how they have a similar ring to them considering we must of wrote them at the same time?? Hope we're not becoming a boring old pair of farts together....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #4,418
  • Mar 12, 2015 6:32am Mar 12, 2015 6:32am
Can't keep going down I know when its so oversold but its making new lows on every drive so who am I to doubt it, however quite interested in buying this sometime soon as looks well oversold today...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDM1.png Size: 60 KB
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #4,419
  • Mar 12, 2015 6:34am Mar 12, 2015 6:34am
Quoting clivepackham
Can't keep going down I know when its so oversold but its making new lows on every drive so who am I to doubt it, however quite interested in buying this sometime soon as looks well oversold today... {image}
Yea 200 pips down from Asian move. London session though did very little which does of course mean that US session might well indulge in a little catch up.
  • #4,420
  • Mar 12, 2015 6:36am Mar 12, 2015 6:36am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Yea 200 pips down from Asian move. London session though did very little which does of course mean that US session might well indulge in a little catch up.
Also a look at D chart shows theres lots of body candle closes in this area for gbpaud with 1 big wick down. That can obviously be a problem but there have been no strong pushes up. Can be completely wrong but still expecting some more downside.
5 traders viewing now