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  • #7,621
  • Mar 11, 2015 1:39pm Mar 11, 2015 1:39pm
Quoting The Fool
I bought a small SPY bull vertical scalp, $207/$207.5 calls for Friday for $0.11
You happen to buy any EU puts on Tuesday? I think you may be on the news
  • #7,622
  • Mar 11, 2015 1:45pm Mar 11, 2015 1:45pm
I bought some SPY Mar Bear Put Spreads 205.50/205 for $0.27 db. Trying a different approach now with these, more classic way, with long strike ITM.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,623
  • Mar 11, 2015 1:47pm Mar 11, 2015 1:47pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} hope you get it, just watch the area around 206.90 to 207.18
Big ballz USD is spooking the markets a little, but I am betting we will see US indices grind up some into next week. I am not looking to hold long trades through the FOMC, so will try to squeeze profits out of Mar SPY bull spreads by next Wednesday or earlier. I would be happy with $207...

If we drop, I am covered somewhat, but looking to add put spreads with later expiry - out into April.

I guess my premise is that the USD is just gonna get stronger and the Fed will be seen in a hawkish light, so the big index moves down we all crave will get going starting this time next week. If I'm wrong, it won't be the first time...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,624
  • Mar 11, 2015 1:53pm Mar 11, 2015 1:53pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} You happen to buy any EU puts on Tuesday? I think you may be on the news
Actually I had a vert SPY put spread cued up on Monday - before the $3 drop - and missed getting filled by $0.01. Say la vee....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,625
  • Mar 11, 2015 1:59pm Mar 11, 2015 1:59pm
European QE started... seems obvious that US funds are dumping some stocks for expensive dollars, and buying Europe with cheap euros like crazy....

SPX is a no-move today (maybe we will see some more intensive selling in final hour), while DAX is totally BALLISTIC today, almost 3%... made 330+ points mark-to-market AND not giving back any.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,626
  • Mar 11, 2015 2:12pm Mar 11, 2015 2:12pm
Quoting StrayDog
European QE started... seems obvious that US funds are dumping some stocks for expensive dollars, and buying Europe with cheap euros like crazy
Get it while it's good...I am not sure the "rotation" will be strong enough to drag down the US indices over time, but with a little help from the Fed, should be no prob.

I filled a USO Jul/Oct $28 call calendar for $0.12, also TLT Mar/Mar4 $120 put calendar for $0.06. Trying to fill Aug LL $38/$39 vert calls for $0.20.

Might sell UVXY $16.5/$15.5 puts for next week @ $0.15 credit
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-03-11_uvxy.png Size: 59 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,627
  • Mar 11, 2015 2:23pm Mar 11, 2015 2:23pm
looking to do a vertical put spread 203.50/203 for 9c or lower, current spy price below and for Friday exp

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
-NYSEArca
204.76 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.22(0.11%) 19:21 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #7,628
  • Mar 11, 2015 2:25pm Mar 11, 2015 2:25pm
Quoting The Fool
I filled a USO Jul/Oct $28 call calendar for $0.12
Also trying to fill PBR Jul $8/$9 calls for $0.06. I am still convinced that oil will bounce into heavy Summer demand, up past $60/bbl, maybe >$65/bbl by Q3
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,629
  • Mar 11, 2015 2:25pm Mar 11, 2015 2:25pm
Quoting The Fool
Get it while it's good...I am not sure the "rotation" will be strong enough to drag down the US indices over time, but with a little help from the Fed, should be no prob....
FED is the key, like always. Big scary rate hike... Rotation alone have some effect, but rather small, IMO. But strong USD will affect every big company with international business, meaning lower guidance in next ER's cycle.

Quoting The Fool
I filled a USO Jul/Oct $28 call calendar for $0.12.....
So, you are a believer in CL comeback, seasonal demand and so on... but that USO $28 corresponds m/l to CL at $78... Also, USO options have a very high IV, which will be much lower IF u/l rises. How is that possibly effecting calendar spread? (The reason why I dislike calendars and diagonals - too much variables)
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,630
  • Mar 11, 2015 2:31pm Mar 11, 2015 2:31pm
Short the rip on IWM? Since it is +0.5%... hmm...

add-on
Bought a couple of IWM Mar Bear Put Spreads 120.50/120 for $0.21 db
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,631
  • Mar 11, 2015 2:36pm Mar 11, 2015 2:36pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
looking to do a vertical put spread 203.50/203 for 9c or lower, current spy price below and for Friday exp SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) -NYSEArca 204.76 {image} 0.22(0.11%) 19:21 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
SPY bear looking too strong, you might have to go lower.

I filled a Mar5/Apr1 SPY $195 put calendar for 12c, expiry b/e is $199.75 on 3/31
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,632
  • Mar 11, 2015 2:46pm Mar 11, 2015 2:46pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} SPY bear looking too strong, you might have to go lower. I filled a Mar5/Apr1 SPY $195 put calendar for 12c, expiry b/e is $199.75 on 3/31
Good volume on those....
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,633
  • Mar 11, 2015 3:12pm Mar 11, 2015 3:12pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} FED is the key, like always. Big scary rate hike... Rotation alone have some effect, but rather small, IMO. But strong USD will affect every big company with international business, meaning lower guidance in next ER's cycle. ,,,,,,,, So, you are a believer in CL comeback, seasonal demand and so on... but that USO $28 corresponds m/l to CL at $78... Also, USO options have a very high IV, which will be much lower IF u/l rises. How is that possibly effecting calendar spread? (The reason why I dislike calendars and diagonals - too much variables)...
Yup, Eurozone stock boom just one Greek headline away from reversal....maybe. Anyway, on USO calendar, what you mention is true, if USO goes up, IV of the options in my spread will fall, the spread's b/e points will come in, and the maxP will come down. R:R is good, though, and 20-lot calendar @ $0.12 debit risks $280 for a shot at >10x return, regardless of IVR drop. If USO doesn't reach $28, I can wait and spread more against the Oct long calls. It will be hard to lose money either way on that trade if USO goes above $20.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,634
  • Mar 11, 2015 3:30pm Mar 11, 2015 3:30pm
Quoting The Fool
Might sell UVXY $16.5/$15.5 puts for next week @ $0.15 credit
Shoulda sold this when I saw it, will need a ^VIX pullback to get something similar...not a great margin-to-yield setup, though, and I have diagonal spreads I want slim margin for...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,635
  • Mar 11, 2015 5:54pm Mar 11, 2015 5:54pm
Quoting The Fool
if USO goes up, IV of the options in my spread will fall, the spread's b/e points will come in, and the maxP will come down. R:R is good, though,
so, the opposite true of time spread on something falling (ie, on something w/ IVR increasing) - and therefore easier to make money on put time spreads, imo. Of course, you still have to be close to your target and m/l right on time - much easier said than done. Diagonal spreads are risky, but have great r:r, just have to be careful setting hem up. I love cheap calendars - have similar profit potential but well-defined & limited risk...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,636
  • Mar 11, 2015 9:28pm Mar 11, 2015 9:28pm
LL I'd bet has a good chance if recovery....lots of cheap fotm spreads around isolated volumes, good luck filling down low...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-03-11_ll2.png Size: 64 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,637
  • Mar 12, 2015 12:17am Mar 12, 2015 12:17am
Quoting StrayDog
So, you are a believer in CL comeback, seasonal demand and so on... but that USO $28 corresponds m/l to CL at $78...
USO $28 backfills the hole crude ripped in the chart back around Thanksgiving, see 11/26 - the last day USO saw $28, --- /CL was a $74.50 high on that day

---- Jul/Oct $28 call calendar at Jul expiry will have downside b/e around $22-23

---- the Jul/Oct $27 call calendar now has a $0.13 mid, b/e at expiry of course would be less

---- the Jul $23/$24 call vertical has a $0.07 mid

/CL $48 is holding overnight....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-03-11_uso.png Size: 131 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,638
  • Mar 12, 2015 12:25am Mar 12, 2015 12:25am
Quoting The Fool
the Jul $23/$24 call vertical has a $0.07 mid ....
cheap spreads...the stuff of dreams....a 10x return if USO gets near $25 by mid July
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-03-11_uso2.png Size: 56 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,639
  • Mar 12, 2015 12:38am Mar 12, 2015 12:38am
double the debit to double the time spread ($28 USO calls Jul/Jan) - still a 10-bag possibility and 6 months of time past July to spread further
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-03-11_uso3.png Size: 62 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,640
  • Mar 12, 2015 1:14am Mar 12, 2015 1:14am
Quoting The Fool
cheap spreads...the stuff of dreams
Could BABA fall $5-$10 in a week?....fall all the way back down to the IPO set, $68?...a Mar4/Apr1 $70 put calendar debits $0.06, has upside expiry b/e @ $77.65
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-03-11_baba.png Size: 60 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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