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Let's Trade Options

  • #7,601
  • Mar 10, 2015 10:14pm Mar 10, 2015 10:14pm
Quoting The Fool
I have a $76 FB put calendar expiring next week that I bought for $0.18, worth $0.47 or so now. Other Mar expiry trades are dogs - SLV, EFA, FXE bullish () spread trades will bite the dust, but they were all small risk. The old SPY $210/$211 Mar/Mar5 diagonal is positioned well now to catch the next btfd, if that comes. I need to get my act together and put on more trades.....
No, that's wrong on FB, misread that somehow, that trade is net up about $0.19...so, up 100%, can't complain. Should I close it or hold out for the sweet P/L action near expiry next week? maxP is about $0.58, but I can get >$0.45 if FB will settle between $75 and $77 next Friday...otoh, if it heads back for $80 I might be looking at a loser....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,602
  • Mar 10, 2015 10:35pm Mar 10, 2015 10:35pm
O man, you can't kill the BoogeyMan! USD stronger & stronger, fiber making new lows, but /CL coming up, back up above $49 in a minute.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,603
  • Mar 10, 2015 11:06pm Mar 10, 2015 11:06pm
/ES up 7 in mid-Asia. What was it, markets were fraid of Fed raising or Greece or wtf? aw fuck it just buy something! I have played this SPY diagonal like a boss, yo. I have 4 x 15-lots of this pos, so when we were grinding up $212 I stood out there on the death slide, boys - I stood and looked down, and I'll tell ya...I was perturbed.

I need a grind up into next week to $209.50 for maxP around $0.55 on a trade that went on for $0.00 - just comms. Ain't talkin bout love...just dumb luck....

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,604
  • Mar 10, 2015 11:28pm Mar 10, 2015 11:28pm
TLT dropped hard to close the week last Friday, bounced off $123, and has come up $3+ this week so far. For a weekly scalp, the vertical puts shown would make money with a drop below $125.50. R:R would be OK if you could get in for less, though. /ZB red overnight & TLT may gap down at the open....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,605
  • Mar 11, 2015 7:17am Mar 11, 2015 7:17am
Quoting The Fool
I need to get my act together and put on more trades.....
Yeah, me too... gonna eat something now and off to work.

Quoting The Fool
......... re: brokers, I'd recommend IB just for their pricing alone. The platforms there are useable but I just enter/manage orders, that's it. ...
Exactly.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,606
  • Mar 11, 2015 7:20am Mar 11, 2015 7:20am
TLT gonna gap down under $126 at the open, so $0.06 won't buy this $120 Mar put calendar, but I will pay more....pushing out to next week catches the FOMC effect, needs a drop below $124 to make some money....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,607
  • Mar 11, 2015 7:35am Mar 11, 2015 7:35am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} My premise is shot on BABA, I thought they might run up before the lockout release date, but nooo. FXCM has announced conference call & ER AH on Thursday. Could be phun! I am trying to fill a SPY Mar4/Mar5 $200/$199 put diagonal for $0.06. The difference between Mar4 and Mar5 is 4 trading days. Good action on the put diagonals, low-end b/e is $198, 10-lot risks $68 to make maxP $425. Need a drop to $200 m/l by the end of the month, I bracket the sweet P/L rise on the diagonal for the week after the FOMC...
JY gonna take out "patient" and markets are gonna run around like a chicken with its head cut off. Could be the nice xx.xx% pullback we have been waiting for, lo these many years...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,608
  • Mar 11, 2015 7:43am Mar 11, 2015 7:43am
Quoting StrayDog
Yeah, if the mofo doesn't rollover from 2085... say goodbye to short-term increase of volatility... and just business as usual, slow grinding up... Hm... but... it ain't over until the fat lady sings... JY and merry band of FOMC members still have a gig on March 18... I just wonder: On the same week as FOMC, we have - CL Apr options (Mar17) and futures (Mar20) expiry - all equity options and index futures (ES, NQ, TF, YM...) expiry on Mar20 - VIX options (Mar17) and futures (Mar18) expiry
yes, it's gonna be a party. I want to get in a bunch more Mar (or Mar4) expiry trades to try to catch some gravy when tshtf...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,609
  • Mar 11, 2015 7:55am Mar 11, 2015 7:55am
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/former...182625744.html
"Rousseff, who was chairwoman of the company's board when much of the graft took place, has denied any knowledge of corruption at Petrobras and urged a thorough investigation."

Oh man, tough time to be a Brazilian. But I have to wonder if Dilma can survive now. If they give her the hook and oil stages a rally this year, PBR can come back to $10 or better, no prob. PBR will rise with an oil rally alone, of course. Awesome r:r on some of the long-dated call spreads....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,610
  • Mar 11, 2015 9:00am Mar 11, 2015 9:00am
Coffee time. I wanna see the crude storage data in the hour. Every day for the last few weeks the hacks have been saying storage is topping off and we should be seeing crude price drop. Maybe they were right? Another hard leg down is gonna bleed many of the oil patch stocks. RIG made a new low today....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,611
  • Mar 11, 2015 9:14am Mar 11, 2015 9:14am
Quoting The Fool
Oh man, tough time to be a Brazilian....
Yeah, look at BAK today. All Brazilian companies who have international business suffer now from strong $, and their currency is going down...
Pretty much catching a falling knife with Brazil. FUBAR, for now.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,612
  • Mar 11, 2015 9:27am Mar 11, 2015 9:27am
indeed, TP.........Mar SPY call spreads are too cheap to sell
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,613
  • Mar 11, 2015 9:36am Mar 11, 2015 9:36am
Quoting The Fool
Coffee time. I wanna see the crude storage data in the hour. Every day for the last few weeks the hacks have been saying storage is topping off and we should be seeing crude price drop. Maybe they were right? Another hard leg down is gonna bleed many of the oil patch stocks. RIG made a new low today....
inventory data print matches projections - first time in a while. Will the crude dip be bought back quick? This data release is money for the /CL scalper...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,614
  • Mar 11, 2015 9:37am Mar 11, 2015 9:37am
Oil is down hard... with much smaller inventory than before?
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,615
  • Mar 11, 2015 9:55am Mar 11, 2015 9:55am
Quoting StrayDog
Oil is down hard... with much smaller inventory than before?
inventory number = flow into storage, so the higher the flow into storage, the less oil is being sold and so typically high storage numbers should mean oil price decrease.

However, lately oil is being bought by speculators to go into storage so they can capitalize on futures contango state. So that has muddied the picture a bit. There's only so much storage to be found - maybe we really can see another crude price breakdown...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,616
  • Mar 11, 2015 10:10am Mar 11, 2015 10:10am
Quoting The Fool
...However, lately oil is being bought by speculators to go into storage so they can capitalize on futures contango state. So that has muddied the picture a bit. There's only so much storage to be found - maybe we really can see another crude price breakdown...
Yeah, on last expiry or the one before that, there was a 10% jump on CL futures options expiry... a short covering rally, that is what speculators expect.
But Goldman don't like to give them anything ... speaking of them, check out the PA on SNDK... they upgraded it in premarket.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,617
  • Mar 11, 2015 10:19am Mar 11, 2015 10:19am
yup, things are moving - check out LL, I thought it would catch a bounce, almost traded on that suspicion, but decided not to...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,618
  • Mar 11, 2015 10:28am Mar 11, 2015 10:28am
I bought a small SPY bull vertical scalp, $207/$207.5 calls for Friday for $0.11
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,619
  • Mar 11, 2015 10:40am Mar 11, 2015 10:40am
Quoting The Fool
I bought a small SPY bull vertical scalp, $207/$207.5 calls for Friday for $0.11
hope you get it, just watch the area around 206.90 to 207.18
  • #7,620
  • Mar 11, 2015 12:53pm Mar 11, 2015 12:53pm
So far, looks like ES wants to make another daily low, and in that case, we could see 2030 by the end of the week. Looking pretty weak so far.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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