My trades by Dave

rage on....

out of 4 hourly breaks below the pivot none has closed below the pivot. new lows were made.

ewo crossed but cci is hanging out above the 0 line. this usually means bounce.

But not untill an hourly close above 1.2811 (21sma/middle bolli).

holding on short for now.

Dave

now that ewo has crossed 0 line and cci remains above, I can get a buy signal on an ewo cross back above.

this is why I shouldn't trade on anticipation of a signal. I didn't wait.

Dave

pt 1.2785 +7 pips.

long 1.2785

s/l 1.2770

target 1.2823

Dave

last hour cci poked below 0 line breifly. and price didn't find new lows. the cci is above 0 on the new hourly candle. I am going with the 0 line bounce probibility.
The low was made durring ny session. the low was retested. And now lets see a bounce.

Dave

but if cci gives a sustained signal down I'll reverse order.

so far losses are 6 pips.

I usually miss the good signals so not sure when to enter and wich way. Usually viewing them in the past. most of them looked swift in the move when crossing. the ones that hung around awhile tended to bounce after a shallow dip.

Dave

That wedge I spoke of last week led to a breakout long as fridays news was released. No wip saw just a streight burst up. I only took 65 pips.


There is major resistance at 1.2974/81 previous top 5/15/06 and 6/5/06. I would like to see a test and failer at that spot. If it goes above 1.2950 and doesnt break resistance that will be a prime spot for a mid/long term short.
But if there is a sustained daily break(daily break and close above and next day breaks previous days high), then look out.

There is wave count that can go either way. This could be a wave C to a wave 2 in a down trend or a wave 1 of 3 of an up.

In the wave c of wave 2, wave 2 cann't retrace beyond the start of wave 1. That is where the resistance range is critical. A break above will wipe out most bearish views and a wave 3 of a major trend could easly take off.

There are alot of people looking for the price to reach well above 1.3000. And just as many that are still looking for the price to reach below 1.1640 major bottom.
So I belive there will be a nice ranged tug-of-war. around the 1.2800/2950 range. Once again probly tightening in range forming another large wedge.

When trading wedges such as this remember one thing, Count the waves in the wedge a,b,c,d,e. E will usually over extend giving a false signal. I trade in the opposit direction wave e breaks. As soon as price crosses hourly back on the 8 ema. That is exactly what happened friday. The wave e overextention is in the e-wave lessons, not just something I have observed, but seems to happen almost always. You might find you got the count wrong but just remember look for the false break. And the price usually goes back to the outside edge of where the wedge started.

For now just waching price work it self out. Let the market show me what its thinking.


Also as of last week I am full time trading. I may not post all my trades but will try to keep a detailed analisys of the market.

Dave


Dave

current weekly pivot is at 1.2845 and current daily pivot is being tested at 1.2855.

Dave

Looks like bearish engulfment in Hourly chart.

Nice to hear you are full time trader now Dave.

thanks, took some adjustment from asia sesion to ny session. Asia moves slower, but NY, blink and you miss it.


EWO and CCI is hovering above "0" line. CCI is closer to the 50 line though. EWO is at 12.

I am looking for a bounce untill the weekly pivot is broken and a sell signal from CCI. If CCI breaks above 50 line it could target the 100 line.

Dave

the new hour took cci above 50. Now looking for a break above 1.2877(21sma)(or middle bolli) We should be close to a trade now.

Dave

Test of 21 sma failed and price looking to retest pivot again.

Market is uncertian and the last few hourly candles are wipsawing so be carfull trying to trade while price remains in the 1.2845/1.2880 range. The range could continue or suddenly end.

BP shut down largest US oil field and fed is looking to open emergency reserves. This should affect the $ but not sure how yet.

CCI crossed below 50 line again.


Dave

1 hr chart

1 pm est 5/34 ema's crossed down, ewo at -1, cci still above 0 at 24, price is below daily pivot above weekly pivot.

waiting for cci to break or bounce. and prefer price to break below weekly pivot befor going short on a signal.

consumer credit due out at 3pm est.


Dave

I got my signals. cci at -2 ewo at -10 price broke weekly pivot.
But there is still major support at 1.2834.

Here's a chart.


Dave



http://img307.imageshack.us/img307/4...portps1.th.jpg

long 1.2843

s/l 1.2830

target open


trade taken on the cci cross back above "0" line

Dave

Dave could u tell me where u got the p point indicator plugin for mt4, my mt4 doesn't seem to have it, so I assume you have a custom indicator someone or yourself made, also the ewo doesnt' seem to be in mt4 either, could you possible most those two indicators here.

thanks

s/l hit - 13pips

cann't figure out why the $ keeps rising when there is oil fields being shut down.
Gotta learn to ignore fundies. And trust my charts.

PM me with your e-mail and I'll send you the indacaters

I am such a fool. I was too buisy listening to oil news. Last year when pipe lines shut down dollar fell 200 pips or more. Now the $ is rising. If I would have just entered on my signals.

woulda shoulda coulda.


Ok any ways, price has fallen to 1.2812. It is a very rare occation when the price moves like this directly after NY session ends. There is no major market in session right now, this has to be banks stop hunting on every body that bought on a dip. So they can get a better entry for themselves when the price does turn back up.

Dave

also dave, you said to use a 100-150 period chart on the 1 hour, could you explain how you set the period with mt4, cant' find it.


thanks

you cann't the 1 hr chart on mt4 and 3 works well.