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  • #7,561
  • Mar 7, 2015 12:04pm Mar 7, 2015 12:04pm
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/her...ike-2015-03-06
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,562
  • Mar 7, 2015 1:30pm Mar 7, 2015 1:30pm
10% pullback from the Feb $212 high for SPY would be $190, 5% would be $200. $190/$200 double put calendar for Mar5/Apr1 debits $0.15, b/e's between $204 and $186...
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  • #7,563
  • Mar 7, 2015 8:28pm Mar 7, 2015 8:28pm
SDog, can you show us how you are using Volume Profiles (or Market Profiles) to scalp /CL?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,564
  • Mar 8, 2015 2:39pm Mar 8, 2015 2:39pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...itors-in-sight
“Time is running short for Greece”

...plus we just sprung forward wit da Daylight Savings Time
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,565
  • Mar 8, 2015 3:28pm Mar 8, 2015 3:28pm
Quoting The Fool
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...itors-in-sight Time is running short for Greece ...plus we just sprung forward wit da Daylight Savings Time
A recipe for more volatility on Monday:
- Eurogroup meeting all day about Greece
- European QE starts
- Apple event

Until Mar 18 there could be various plays of long volatility. Simple long UVXY... or bull put spreads on VXX, or debit call spreads on VXX / VIX, starting from tomorrow to get them cheap...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,566
  • Mar 8, 2015 3:39pm Mar 8, 2015 3:39pm
Quoting The Fool
SDog, can you show us how you are using Volume Profiles (or Market Profiles) to scalp /CL? {image}
Market Profile seems to be popular these days. It defines places where price has been for longest time with the largest volume. Price tends to revert to those places, where both buyers and sellers are happy. Idk about ToS, but there are good software for that. One need to have these Bell curves of price distribution for each day... then you define levels on them... there are VAH (Value Area High) and VAL (V. Area Low) and etc... but it is easy to understand once you start using them. Good stuff for futures. BUT first, you have to define your personal levels on simple blank chart. No matter what tool you are using, you yourself must draw horizontal S/R levels and channels. Once you see overlapping on your levels of S/R with the ones on Market Profile, you are prepared to define the best of them, and you just wait. I know somebody who is very good with this, so I will ask for literature, for both of us.

About CL, you have free live data on Investing com, go to charts and choose "streaming chart", there you have small time frames, not just daily, and it is completely the same like Trading View. Easy to draw lines, fibo retracements and so on.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,567
  • Edited 7:21pm Mar 8, 2015 7:10pm | Edited 7:21pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Market Profile ......... About CL, you have free live data on Investing com, go to charts and choose "streaming chart", there you have small time frames, not just daily, and it is completely the same like Trading View. Easy to draw lines, fibo retracements and so on.
I have live futures quotes thru ToS, which has "Volume Profile" canned, which I show above - so I can tie that to the tf of the chart and volume histogram will array across the y-(price) axis at the same tf as the chart. Anyway, I am not scalping anything, so fine tuning entry/exit down to the hour or minute is not that important to me.

There's likely all kinds of "Market Profile" add-on stuff I could get for ToS, if I wanted to...

/CL is nice one for the scalper, though, it likes to move around...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,568
  • Mar 8, 2015 7:25pm Mar 8, 2015 7:25pm
Quoting The Fool
10% pullback from the Feb $212 high for SPY would be $190, 5% would be $200. $190/$200 double put calendar for Mar5/Apr1 debits $0.15, b/e's between $204 and $186...
in early NZ & Oz trade /ES & /NQ are down, although you'd have to expect that after Friday's rout. I don't really bother to look at early quotes until the London open, anyway. But I still think we will see good opps to sell premium on index etfs/futures until FOMC & maybe beyond. I will be looking to do Super Bear setups and fotm long put calendars/diagonals on SPY, QQQ, etc...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,569
  • Mar 8, 2015 7:40pm Mar 8, 2015 7:40pm
http://www.theguardian.com/money/us-...t-stocks-bonds

yup, watch the bond market.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,570
  • Mar 9, 2015 1:06am Mar 9, 2015 1:06am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} no words from FXCM....never a good sign when the ER date comes & goes with nothing but crickets....
FXCM ER date pushed out to 3/12 bmo
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,571
  • Mar 9, 2015 1:15am Mar 9, 2015 1:15am
Quoting StrayDog
...... we should consider put spreads like you and TF discussed, not only on TSLA and indices, but also on other high-fliers momo stocks, since they are the ones who will get hit with larger % of pain, than the broad market... Lets say AMZN, NFLX, TWTR, LNKD, MNST, YELP, SPLK, PCLN and so on... There will be no talking of valuations until the market is already down more than 5%... Then, the talking heads will start to pure oil to the fire, like: "Well, you know, no wonder that XYZ is falling like a drunken bitch , with p/e of 850"... and so on......
rotation, yes, well, let's see about that. Between the "rotation" and newly inflamed fear of the Fed, maybe we can see a decent pullback in US indices....? I like the idea of shooting down the high flyers, though. The bigger they are, the harder they fall....
Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,572
  • Mar 9, 2015 1:35am Mar 9, 2015 1:35am
Quoting StrayDog
BABA lock-up period will expire on March 18... looking for some March put verticals... While looking at them, somebody just bought 70 of March 83.50/83 put spreads for $0.20.... or maybe it was a put spreads seller, BUT with IV on BABA so low, buying is more logical.
not forgetting about this road apple. If we back off the fear factor and markets flatline or trend up over the next week or so, I'd guess we see good upside for BABA, but with 429mio shares freed up on 3/18, I still gotta believe it sells off later. Mar expiry may not give you enough time to catch that though...I'll be watching...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,573
  • Edited 2:06am Mar 9, 2015 1:55am | Edited 2:06am
Quoting The Fool
Where will it be trading at the end of the year? A $2 wide Jan LL bull call vertical, $45/$47 ... for $0.25...???
Still watching LL, may be some good opps there. Its fall from grace maybe not over yet, though

...that $0.25 Jan vert quoted above is gone, but can try Aug $40/$41 for $0.10...good luck filling, ....but no hurry
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,574
  • Mar 9, 2015 2:02am Mar 9, 2015 2:02am
Quoting The Fool
some of these beat down oil companies are gonna have a chance of doubling this year... http://www.thestreet.com/story/13047...o&cm_ven=YAHOO "Six stocks in this category include: BP (BP) , Southwestern Energy (SWN) and Matador Resources (MTDR) , according to several money managers in the sector. Whiting Petroleum...
keeping an eye on crude and its minions, of course. Lots of support above $45, I see the various houses saying new lows are coming....who are they working for...?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,575
  • Mar 9, 2015 2:42am Mar 9, 2015 2:42am
Quoting StrayDog
Until Mar 18 there could be various plays of long volatility. Simple long UVXY... or bull put spreads on VXX, or debit call spreads on VXX / VIX, starting from tomorrow to get them cheap...
yes. I would want to look out to Mar in order to catch the next FOMC. UVXY $1 wide put spread - $0.30 yield not bad, if you can get all of that
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,576
  • Mar 9, 2015 2:58am Mar 9, 2015 2:58am
super bull UVXY for Mar?...you need $20.5/$21 to get to a 3:1 r:r, as of Fri close, need to break $20 by expiry to make money then
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,577
  • Mar 9, 2015 3:41am Mar 9, 2015 3:41am
tacking on a SPY call diagonal gets me a little ($1 m/l) more breathing room on Mar long SPY positions....will do it if can get in for free or small credit
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,578
  • Mar 9, 2015 9:57am Mar 9, 2015 9:57am
So far BTFD-ers are holding the ground... ES rejected from 2068... Could we please NOT see another V shape bottom...

Missed UVXY and CL via USO longs, both started to move in premarket, sitting on my hands now.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,579
  • Mar 9, 2015 10:07am Mar 9, 2015 10:07am
Quoting StrayDog
sitting on my hands now.
me too, m/l --- trying to fill a Apr/Apr4 BAC $17 call calendar for $0.02....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,580
  • Mar 9, 2015 10:15am Mar 9, 2015 10:15am
Quoting The Fool
not forgetting about this road apple. If we back off the fear factor and markets flatline or trend up over the next week or so, I'd guess we see good upside for BABA, but with 429mio shares freed up on 3/18, I still gotta believe it sells off later. Mar expiry may not give you enough time to catch that though...I'll be watching...
About BABA lock-up
Alibaba's big lock-up expiration to test faithful

There you will find the right numbers. Additional 1.6 bln (not 16 bln) in September.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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