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  • #7,521
  • Mar 5, 2015 1:26pm Mar 5, 2015 1:26pm
I sold USO Apr 17 puts for $0.51... IV high, IVR above 65... AND I don't believe that /CL will drop $5 by then.
If it does, I will take the shares. Sold only 2 of them, staying small .
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,522
  • Mar 5, 2015 1:44pm Mar 5, 2015 1:44pm
Quoting StrayDog
I sold USO Apr 17 puts for $0.51... IV high, IVR above 65... AND I don't believe that /CL will drop $5 by then. If it does, I will take the shares. Sold only 2 of them, staying small .
Yeah, that /CL is not for the penny pitchers. I am still looking at long-dated call spreads for USO....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,523
  • Mar 5, 2015 2:01pm Mar 5, 2015 2:01pm
I am trying to fill a Mar BABA $80/$79.5 vert put spread for $0.06. I am thinking about it though...if insiders holding lotsa shares are going to dump after the lcokout, maybe they will try to run it up a bit first? maybe it will make more sense to wait for shots at cheap put spreads a little later, if they do..??
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,524
  • Mar 5, 2015 2:09pm Mar 5, 2015 2:09pm
Quoting The Fool
I am trying to fill a Mar BABA $80/$79.5 vert put spread for $0.06. I am thinking about it though...if insiders holding lotsa shares are going to dump after the lcokout, maybe they will try to run it up a bit first? maybe it will make more sense to wait for shots at cheap put spreads a little later, if they do..??
nah, took that off. trying to fill USO Jul/Oct $28 call calendar for $0.11
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,525
  • Mar 5, 2015 2:10pm Mar 5, 2015 2:10pm
Quoting The Fool
I am trying to fill a Mar BABA $80/$79.5 vert put spread for $0.06. I am thinking about it though...if insiders holding lotsa shares are going to dump after the lcokout, maybe they will try to run it up a bit first? maybe it will make more sense to wait for shots at cheap put spreads a little later, if they do..??
You can hit 1/2 now and wait for better prices if they come, for remaining 1/2 of position... Getting filled on BABA $0.5 strikes is a bitch, though...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,526
  • Mar 5, 2015 2:20pm Mar 5, 2015 2:20pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} You can hit 1/2 now and wait for better prices if they come, for remaining 1/2 of position... Getting filled on BABA $0.5 strikes is a bitch, though...
Yeah, BABA gonna be a side dish anyway, I prolly wait & see on it. I like the Mar put calendar idea, but need to see it cheaper.

SPY & TLT where much of my risk is at now, not surprised to see them flatline on the day b4 NFP.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,527
  • Mar 5, 2015 2:22pm Mar 5, 2015 2:22pm
Hm... UVXY trade --> She sold a put spread to buy a butterfly... all done for CR, no upside risk...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UVXY-combo.PNG Size: 130 KB


I don't like bid/ask spread on UVXY... and this combo has 6 options involved, so comms heavy.

TF,
I am too tired now, but I will prepare material about one interesting discussion ---> to compare a 4 option combo, like I did yesterday on IWM (bull put spread financing a debit put spread), with a put diagonal... pros, cons... and so on.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,528
  • Mar 5, 2015 2:27pm Mar 5, 2015 2:27pm
Quoting StrayDog
TF, I am too tired now, but I will prepare material about one interesting discussion ---> to compare a 4 option combo, like I did yesterday on IWM (bull put spread financing a debit put spread), with a put diagonal... pros, cons... and so on.
Hey anytime SDog. I myself am spread very thin and am just minding the same handful of trades across all accounts. UVXY I have been watching but that pos has burned me before with wide spreads, there are better hunts.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,529
  • Mar 5, 2015 2:29pm Mar 5, 2015 2:29pm
Quoting The Fool
I just bought 10 $5 lotto tickets, FXCM $2.5 Mar long call....earnings out today ah I tink....
no words from FXCM....never a good sign when the ER date comes & goes with nothing but crickets....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,530
  • Mar 5, 2015 2:38pm Mar 5, 2015 2:38pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} no words from FXCM....never a good sign when the ER date comes & goes with nothing but crickets....
I am just thinking about massive dilatation of shares, didn't that Leucadia fond became a majority owner, trough recapitalization?
So there could be like 4, 5 times more shares than before. Is that ALL priced in...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,531
  • Mar 5, 2015 3:13pm Mar 5, 2015 3:13pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} I am just thinking about massive dilatation of shares, didn't that Leucadia fond became a majority owner, trough recapitalization? So there could be like 4, 5 times more shares than before. Is that ALL priced in...

Oh, I see - devil in the details. You're a "devil in the details" kinda guy? That's really special...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,532
  • Mar 5, 2015 3:38pm Mar 5, 2015 3:38pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} I am just thinking about massive dilatation of shares, ...
speaking of dilution, BABA float is 1.2 billion, 3/18 lockup expiry frees additional 429 million...September lockup end frees up 16 billion additional shares. 16 BILLION!

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102481365?__s...&doc=102481365

Holy Smokes! Who is gonna buy this dog turd with that kind of dilution coming down the pipe?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,533
  • Mar 5, 2015 6:24pm Mar 5, 2015 6:24pm
LL another one for the opportunist....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,534
  • Mar 5, 2015 10:17pm Mar 5, 2015 10:17pm
EWZ double call calendar, Jun/Jul $32 and $42. Share price dropping towards $32....3+ months early...but we'll see. I look at trades like this at least once a week. I won't bore you with news about Brazil - you can google as well as I can - but things have gone from bad to worse
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,535
  • Mar 5, 2015 10:30pm Mar 5, 2015 10:30pm
Quoting The Fool
Brazil - things have gone from bad to worse
I might have to fish in the $20's...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-03-05_ewz3.png Size: 68 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,536
  • Mar 5, 2015 10:55pm Mar 5, 2015 10:55pm
some of these beat down oil companies are gonna have a chance of doubling this year...

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13047...o&cm_ven=YAHOO
"Six stocks in this category include: BP (BP) , Southwestern Energy (SWN) and Matador Resources (MTDR) , according to several money managers in the sector. Whiting Petroleum (WLL) , Apache (APA) and Ultra Petroleum (UPL) all look interesting because they have fallen far enough to get a five star rating at Morningstar, the research group's highest rating."
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-03-05_wll2.png Size: 127 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-03-05_wll2_001.png Size: 69 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,537
  • Mar 5, 2015 11:01pm Mar 5, 2015 11:01pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} no words from FXCM....never a good sign when the ER date comes & goes with nothing but crickets....
wait & see, maybe they had to recalculate a few things, happens to the best of us....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,538
  • Mar 5, 2015 11:22pm Mar 5, 2015 11:22pm
Quoting The Fool
LL another one for the opportunist....
Where will it be trading at the end of the year? A $2 wide Jan LL bull call vertical, $45/$47 ... for $0.25...???
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-03-05_ll1.png Size: 54 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,539
  • Mar 6, 2015 12:14am Mar 6, 2015 12:14am
some of these midpoint quotes are crazy...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,540
  • Mar 6, 2015 8:42am Mar 6, 2015 8:42am
Quoting The Fool
TLT diag for Fri expiry shaping up, I am <$1 away from the maxP price, will have to watch it on Friday - if we get a strong NFP then TLT will drop....
Yep, I was afraid of this, TLT dropped too much, but I got out for $0.14 net credit, about 1/2 maxP
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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