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COT trading system with free indicator

  • #181
  • Mar 1, 2015 4:05pm Mar 1, 2015 4:05pm
Sym,

Thanks for the great indicator. I've been looking for some COT analysis for some longer term trend trading and I look forward to trying to integrate this.
  • #182
  • Mar 2, 2015 12:10am Mar 2, 2015 12:10am
Quoting sym
Hi friends in post #1 new cot-report file (24-2-2015). Have a good week. {image}
great stuff Sym. have a great trading week. Thank you
  • #183
  • Mar 4, 2015 12:46pm Mar 4, 2015 12:46pm
sorry for my ignorance but... there is no mq4 file ... how do i get this to work in mt4? i'm a newbie to mt4 & 5
  • #184
  • Mar 5, 2015 3:50am Mar 5, 2015 3:50am
  •  sym
  • Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Working... (too much) :) | 356 Posts
Quoting cc405
sorry for my ignorance but... there is no mq4 file ... how do i get this to work in mt4? i'm a newbie to mt4 & 5
Hi cc405

no problem at all. We all are ignorante in a way or another.

here: http://tiny.cc/6uq0ux you can download indicator and guide

here: http://tiny.cc/kwq0ux every week you'll find the updated files


Read PDF guide for further information.


Have a great day
--- nothing to say ---
  • #185
  • Mar 5, 2015 9:23am Mar 5, 2015 9:23am
Hello everyone,

I have been interested in COT analysis for some time now and wanted to find other traders to discuss it with, so I joined the forum. I never realized that I cannot create my own thread, so wanted to ask if it would be OK to post a little bit different view of the market here.

I am also using MT4, but on my charts I use freely available indicators from Meta COT project: https://www.mql5.com/en/articles/1573
I find them to be very convenient and easy to use.

After going through all the available indicators many times in addition to writing a couple my own I decided to go back to the basics and simply try to do a psychological analysis of market Price Action in combination with Absolute positions of Large Speculators (Non-Commercial, NC for short).

Why Speculators and not Commercials? I am interested in understanding of the psychology behind the positions and when I see the NC being heavily on the long side while the market is going down I know they are losing money and not liking it. Together with price action analysis this can be invaluable information. Commercials, as you know, may seem to lose all the time but they are on the market for different reasons - they hedge their risks. Therefore it is more difficult to predict their actions and more importantly their reasons.

Why not Net positions? Simply because I would like to see when one side starts moving, it gives me a little bit more to think about.

One unorthodox element in my analysis is that for each pair I analyze COT data for both currencies. I realize that COT data is published for currency futures and EUR COT data corresponds to EURUSD pair. However, I found that knowing the COT data for USD is just as important. On Forex we don't trade the currencies - we trade the difference between 2 currencies and so analyzing them both seems logical. This also allows me to speculate about the influence of COT on cross pairs, such as EURGBP or GBPNZD, etc.

Here is my basic chart setup:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: COT Legend.GIF Size: 97 KB


The legend explains the COT indicator, which shows Long and Short positions for AUD and USD currencies separately. On the chart I use 3 EMAs (20, 100 and 200) and Pivot points - only to watch the price action around these potential levels of Sup/Res.

In attached PDF is the kind of analysis I do daily for multiple pairs. I am still relatively new to this (I use COT in my trading about 8 months) so I am learning in the process. Let me know if something like this is interesting.

One last note: I tend to get lazy and abbreviate everything I can. I abbreviate all currencies to their first letter (E for EUR, U for USD, etc. but H for CHF since C is used for CAD) and the same for trading pairs (EU for EURUSD, CH for CADCHF), all timeframes to standard MT4 short names, etc. Since the main reason I write thds is to imprint the picture in my mind to use in trading, I am used to such writing. Let me know if anything is confusing.

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 28-02-2015 EURUSD.pdf   310 KB | 751 downloads


Cheers,
Anatoliy.
  • #186
  • Mar 5, 2015 11:35am Mar 5, 2015 11:35am
Quoting AnatoliyS
Here is my basic chart setup: Cheers, Anatoliy.
Nice analysis...
The challenge as always is...how to use the information in real time. Looking back it's obvious to see the weakening of the AUD and strengthening USD. But at any particular time it's difficult to know if market is changing or just retracing. For example around Oct 2014, AUD long's and USD shorts turned back up while AUD short's and USD long's started down. One might suppose price would head back up. But of course it just turned out to be a temporary pullback in the long downtrend.
  • #187
  • Mar 5, 2015 11:59am Mar 5, 2015 11:59am
Quoting spyderman
how to use the information in real time. Looking back it's obvious to see the weakening of the AUD and strengthening USD. But at any particular time it's difficult to know if market is changing or just retracing. For example around Oct 2014, AUD long's and USD shorts turned back up while AUD short's and USD long's started down. One might suppose price would head back up. But of course it just turned out to be a temporary pullback in the long downtrend.
I totally agree with you, we will never be able to predict or forecast the price with absolute certainty, but my opinion is that there is no need to. Operating under the conditions of uncertainty is completely possible and feasible thanks to stop losses we can use. If the price seemed to be reversing on trend timeframe (for me Weekly) and there is a clear entry signal on entry TF (Daily-H4), we just take it. A clear entry signal means, first of all, a clear technical SL that we can set. When the trend continues further down and we are stopped, we reasses the situation. The price then breaks further down and now the bias is bearish again and we continue the process.

In the pdf I am trying to go in much more detail, but of course still on a history chart. It is essential to get the concepts clear before applying any knowledge live, and the benefit of hindsight is very much welcome there.

The picture in the post serves one purpose only: to show the legend how to read the colored lines on the indicator. There is basically no analysis on it whatsoever, simply pointing out that when big players push two currencies in opposite directions (in that case short AUD and long USD), the cross pair between these currencies tends to trade in a strong trend.

Finally I would add 2 points:

  1. To me personally the price action always comes first, and the situation in Oct 2014, with 3 weeks trying to break up but closing doji or even bearish, certainly does not show sufficient bullish strength to reverse the trend
  2. I personally try not to trade from the beginning of the trend. When the price shows a clear sign of new bias (on AU chart - strong bearish candle at the first vertical line) I will start looking for an entry point on lower TFs (D1 and H4). That means that I would expect a similar bullish strength visible on the chart before I would consider to start buying AU. We don't need to catch the first pips of the move to make money and trying to reverse a Weekly trend requires VERY deep pockets (commercial traders in COT report certainly can do that, I'd rather not ).

Attached pdf with the AUDUSD review I made this Monday. Any critique is always welcome, it can only help everyone to improve.

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 02-03-2015 AUDUSD.pdf   309 KB | 616 downloads
  • #188
  • Mar 5, 2015 3:39pm Mar 5, 2015 3:39pm
Quoting AnatoliyS
I am also using MT4, but on my charts I use freely available indicators from Meta COT project: https://www.mql5.com/en/articles/1573
Very interesting. I'll definitely read the article. I tried to download the indicators etc. but they seem to not work in the newer MT4 build. I looked for updates but couldn't find them. Do you have an alternate source.

Thanks
  • #189
  • Mar 5, 2015 4:25pm Mar 5, 2015 4:25pm
Quoting spyderman
I tried to download the indicators etc. but they seem to not work in the newer MT4 build.
In cotlib.mq4 file the original coder used "int char;" parameter definition, "char" became a reserved word in the new build:
Inserted Code
string str_trim(string fname)
{
int strlen=StringLen(fname)-1;
int char;
...
}

I remember having an issue with that as well, as I couldn't compile from the source. Changing it to "int character;" fixed the issue.

Here is the updated cotlib.mq4 in case you are having problems modifying it. It goes into "Include" folder.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 cotlib.mq4   17 KB | 1,122 downloads
  • #190
  • Mar 5, 2015 4:54pm Mar 5, 2015 4:54pm
Quoting AnatoliyS
{quote} In cotlib.mq4 file the original coder used "int char;" parameter definition, "char" became a reserved word in the new build: string str_trim(string fname) { int strlen=StringLen(fname)-1; int char; ... } I remember having an issue with that as well, as I couldn't compile from the source. Changing it to "int character;" fixed the issue. Here is the updated cotlib.mq4 in case you are having problems modifying it. It goes into "Include" folder. {file}

Yeah, I'm having trouble compiling all the files. Coder indicates in a post from 2014 that the new build files are attached but I can't find any.
Do you have a zip of all the files?
  • #191
  • Mar 5, 2015 5:17pm Mar 5, 2015 5:17pm
Quoting spyderman
Do you have a zip of all the files?
I believe he updated the source code but only in the Russian version of the article. Use direct link: https://www.mql5.com/ru/articles/dow...14_03_2011.zip

Note: I did not test this source code, but he says it is updated. He made a mistake in the file name, apparently it should be 14_03_2014, the date when he did the update.
  • #192
  • Edited 1:25am Mar 6, 2015 1:09am | Edited 1:25am
  •  sym
  • Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Working... (too much) :) | 356 Posts
Quoting AnatoliyS
{quote} I believe he updated the source code but only in the Russian version of the article. Use direct link: https://www.mql5.com/ru/articles/dow...14_03_2011.zip Note: I did not test this source code, but he says it is updated. He made a mistake in the file name, apparently it should be 14_03_2014, the date when he did the update.
Hi AnatoliyS

thanks for your contribution, analisys and link as well.
But I think for not mixing indicators and/or information
it could be better if you create your own thread that I will be very happy to attend.

Do not mix up things here, or people will be confused.
Thanks for your understanding.

Sym
--- nothing to say ---
  • #193
  • Edited 11:04am Mar 6, 2015 8:26am | Edited 11:04am
Quoting sym
... it could be better if you create your own thread that I will be very happy to attend. Do not mix up things here, or people will be confused. Thanks for your understanding. Sym
Hi Sym, the point is well taken.

That was my intent from the beginning, but I was not able to create a thread without making some posts first. Sorry that I kinda "used" your thread to get me started. I like your view of COT data, but I agree that it is much better if we keep things separate and learn from each other in different threads.

I am looking forward sharing our points of view in the future.

P.S. I started this thread, hope to see you around: Psychology, Price Action, Correlation and COT

Anatoliy.
  • #194
  • Mar 7, 2015 11:04am Mar 7, 2015 11:04am
Dear Sym,

This thread on CoT is Great ! and much appreciated your efforts for educating on the CoT trading. Though, your pdf manual is self explanatory but still naive trader like me are unable to completely comprehend on how to take the trade. It would be great if you can make a video on explaining your indicators and cot methodology and how to take trade using Cot. Shall appreciate if you can post the video and its link .

Many Thanks in Advance

Khan
  • #195
  • Edited Mar 9, 2015 2:55am Mar 8, 2015 2:42pm | Edited Mar 9, 2015 2:55am
  •  sym
  • Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Working... (too much) :) | 356 Posts
Quoting khanahmed
Dear Sym, This thread on CoT is Great ! and much appreciated your efforts for educating on the CoT trading. Though, your pdf manual is self explanatory but still naive trader like me are unable to completely comprehend on how to take the trade. It would be great if you can make a video on explaining your indicators and cot methodology and how to take trade using Cot. Shall appreciate if you can post the video and its link . Many Thanks in Advance Khan
Hi khanahmed
there are many ways to trade with cot indicator but if you read post #1 I told my intent was to give the instrument but you have to find out how to use it. How I trade COT DATA could not suit your risk aversion.
Nevertheless if you go through posts you can find some "interesting" idea on how use it. I can't make a video, I'm a trader and a coder and can't devolve my time educating people. I'm not a teacher and I could miserably fail doing what you ask.
So I apologize and hope you understand my point.

In post#1 new COT FILE... something strange is happening on eurusd.

Have a great week
--- nothing to say ---
  • #196
  • Mar 9, 2015 3:33pm Mar 9, 2015 3:33pm
Hello everyone. I'm not sure what I've done, or didn't do, but this is all I see after loading the 3 files. I also do not see the EA running on the chart and yes, the COTindicator.ex4 is in the experts folder. Thanks for any assistance
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MetaTrader.png Size: 90 KB
  • #197
  • Mar 9, 2015 5:09pm Mar 9, 2015 5:09pm
Quoting iuforex
Hello everyone. I'm not sure what I've done, or didn't do, but this is all I see after loading the 3 files. I also do not see the EA running on the chart and yes, the COTindicator.ex4 is in the experts folder. Thanks for any assistance {image}
iuforex,

It's not an EA it's an indicator. It should be in your indicator folder.
  • #198
  • Mar 9, 2015 7:16pm Mar 9, 2015 7:16pm
Quoting spyderman
{quote} iuforex, It's not an EA it's an indicator. It should be in your indicator folder.
Thanks Spidey. The PDF had the following. Guess I was confused.

- Copy the first one into your folder: MetaTrader\templates\ - Copy the second one into your folder: MetaTrader\MQL4\Experts...
  • #199
  • Mar 10, 2015 2:16am Mar 10, 2015 2:16am
  •  sym
  • Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Working... (too much) :) | 356 Posts
Quoting iuforex
{quote} Thanks Spidey. The PDF had the following. Guess I was confused. - Copy the first one into your folder: MetaTrader\templates\ - Copy the second one into your folder: MetaTrader\MQL4\Experts...
Hi iuforex

my fault, made a mistake. I'm going to correct the PDF immediatly.

Thanks to you and spiderman
--- nothing to say ---
  • #200
  • Mar 10, 2015 2:33am Mar 10, 2015 2:33am
  •  sym
  • Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Working... (too much) :) | 356 Posts
PDF on post #1 has been corrected.

Thank you guys
--- nothing to say ---
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