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  • #89,521
  • Edited 5:54am Mar 4, 2015 5:11am | Edited 5:54am
Well, AUD didn't ease when it was expected to. It rose because of that.
While GDP dropped, it was expected. So not much market impact there.

In any case, NZD has always been the more resilient of the pair and usually takes NZD weakness to cause it to drop against USD.
Luck shines on the positive.
  • #89,522
  • Mar 4, 2015 5:38am Mar 4, 2015 5:38am
Quoting YvetteTeo
Well, AUD didn't ease when it was expected to. It rose and because of that. While GDP dropped, it was expected. So not much market impact there. In any case, NZD has always been the more resilient of the pair and usually takes NZD weakness to cause it to drop against USD.
Mind Blown! Thanks for the analysis.
  • #89,523
  • Mar 4, 2015 7:49am Mar 4, 2015 7:49am
Currently, we are hovering near 4hr 200MA, if we get close above 786 before Assia session, this may indicate further upside. I will add some further sell limits, if NFP disappoints, which may well be, that will provide us with some nice entries
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  • #89,524
  • Mar 4, 2015 7:56am Mar 4, 2015 7:56am
USD losing ground....
There is a winner and a loser, nothing in between.
  • #89,525
  • Mar 4, 2015 8:51am Mar 4, 2015 8:51am
Holding on shorts while AUDUSD went right up to channel line resistance and possibly reversing...down.
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Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #89,526
  • Mar 4, 2015 9:11am Mar 4, 2015 9:11am
A proper wave count of completed minor correction ii and now resuming down trend on wave iii quickly.
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Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #89,527
  • Mar 4, 2015 7:07pm Mar 4, 2015 7:07pm
After all bad news that should depreciate the AUD, what is preventing AUDUSD from to falling?
  • #89,528
  • Mar 4, 2015 8:04pm Mar 4, 2015 8:04pm
1.0285 is a serious monthly level on AUD/NZD, Might have to keep this long for a while....... probably won't though, but certainly a level that it should bounce hard off of.
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  • #89,529
  • Mar 4, 2015 8:24pm Mar 4, 2015 8:24pm
Quoting mchiuminatto
After all bad news that should depreciate the AUD, what is preventing AUDUSD from to falling?
It's been falling for almost 2 years now.. Maybe it needs a quick break.
  • #89,530
  • Mar 4, 2015 8:25pm Mar 4, 2015 8:25pm
Philip Lowe - The exchange rate channel of monetary policy is also working. There are some signs that the depreciation of the Australian dollar is boosting domestic activity, with net exports of services increasing strongly. Also, in our liaison program a number of businesses have reported that they see the lower exchange rate as opening up new opportunities. In time, we should see the effect of this on domestic production and spending.

http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2015/...015-03-05.html
  • #89,531
  • Mar 4, 2015 8:30pm Mar 4, 2015 8:30pm
looks like we just finished printing hs on h1.. hoping to see it below .78 soon.
  • #89,532
  • Mar 4, 2015 9:14pm Mar 4, 2015 9:14pm
Word play from both BoA and BoNZ to reduce currency strength and possible easing are no longer as credible (market movement) as they are unless there is action.

We were saved by China's news of lower growth targets but not direct data from BoA and BoNZ.

Considering the positive news that will surface with AUD and NZD's lower exchange rate pushing trade growth, I'd be weary shorting in the long term. We already have an example of strength against weaker currencies like GBP and EUR, and barely paring with USD. Therefore, unless we have an exceedingly strong USD, I don't see AUD or NZD weakening too much against USD.

My 2 cents but most importantly, Green Pips to all!
Luck shines on the positive.
  • #89,533
  • Mar 5, 2015 4:56am Mar 5, 2015 4:56am
Someone mentioned the AUD spike yesterday.

Here is some commentary.

AUD/USD –Movements and Key Economic Data releases this week include
 AUD/ USD closed at 0.7843 making a small gain on the day.
 No data out of Australia yesterday, while today’s release of trade balance data was worse than expected, with a greater fall into the red than the previous month and worse than forecasted. Exports rose 1% while imports rose 3%, showing the impact of the commodity sector on the Australian economy.
 The trade balance deficit was adjusted for December to 0.503bn while January’s deficit increased to 0.98bn. Forecasts were 0.93bn. AUD negative
 The AUD is being placed under downward pressure after Lowe indicated that further rate cuts would be needed. AUD negative
 China has revised down its growth forecasts for the year to around 7%. AUD negative
 Even with the news of the widening deficit, the AUD/USD is sitting at 0.7825 at the time of the report.
 The ASIC will also be investigating into the spike in the AUD seconds ahead of the RBA’s rate announcement. The RBA also noted a similar spike in the pairing seconds before the February announcement of a rate cut.
 Retails sales numbers to come but there doesn’t appear to be much upside for the AUD at present.
  • #89,534
  • Mar 5, 2015 6:38am Mar 5, 2015 6:38am
Quoting Sifufx
Someone mentioned the AUD spike yesterday. Here is some commentary. AUD/USD Movements and Key Economic Data releases this week include  AUD/ USD closed at 0.7843 making a small gain on the day.  No data out of Australia yesterday, while todays release of trade balance data was worse than expected, with a greater fall into the red than the previous month and worse than forecasted.  Retails sales numbers to come but there doesnt appear to be much upside for the AUD at present.

Retail Sales has already been released. It was announced at the same time as the Trade Balance, +0.4% m/m, as expected.
  • #89,535
  • Mar 5, 2015 9:49am Mar 5, 2015 9:49am
Quoting Sifufx
Someone mentioned the AUD spike yesterday. Here is some commentary. AUD/USD Movements and Key Economic Data releases this week include  AUD/ USD closed at 0.7843 making a small gain on the day.  No data out of Australia yesterday, while todays release of trade balance data was worse than expected, with a greater fall into the red than the previous month and worse than forecasted. Exports rose 1% while imports rose 3%, showing the impact of the commodity sector on the Australian economy.  The trade balance deficit was adjusted...
Sifufx, wished i had read your post.

Regreted my decision.
  • #89,536
  • Mar 5, 2015 10:21am Mar 5, 2015 10:21am
With China lowering its growth forecast to around 7.0% from 7.4%, I think AUD has become a sell-rally mode again. The break of 0.7740 will probably accelerate decline and it could be volatile as we've been compressing in this region for almost a month now. Will tomorrow's NFP be the trigger? Either way, good luck to everyone.
  • #89,537
  • Mar 5, 2015 2:58pm Mar 5, 2015 2:58pm
i think now go to 7790, but tomorrow maybe retest 7850...or go down...?
  • #89,538
  • Mar 6, 2015 5:19am Mar 6, 2015 5:19am
A triangular range pattern has been formed on the h4 chart. IMO, a break below the support line and we could see price testing 0.7650 levels. If price move up out of the range...strong resistance @ 0.7880.
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  • #89,539
  • Mar 6, 2015 6:57am Mar 6, 2015 6:57am
While ever other currency has tanked all day against the dollar the Aussie has risen steadily................. suspicious!
  • #89,540
  • Mar 6, 2015 7:23am Mar 6, 2015 7:23am
I don't understand why the Euro is going down against the Aussie, yet the Euro going up against the US!
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