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Price is everything

  • #29,861
  • Mar 4, 2015 1:42pm Mar 4, 2015 1:42pm
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  • #29,862
  • Mar 4, 2015 1:51pm Mar 4, 2015 1:51pm
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  • #29,863
  • Mar 4, 2015 1:56pm Mar 4, 2015 1:56pm
Hi, warren:

have learned a lot from your posts, thanks.

btw, how do you determine it is a fakeout (or engulf)? when did you determine it is a FO? right when it happened? or after the price dropped back into the blue zone?

I've noted the question on the chart, thanks for your help!

Quoting bigwal
Ok chart time {image}
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  • #29,864
  • Mar 4, 2015 2:09pm Mar 4, 2015 2:09pm
Balls on line - bring your charts (and balls)

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  • #29,865
  • Mar 4, 2015 2:57pm Mar 4, 2015 2:57pm
Quoting charvo
Hi, warren: have learned a lot from your posts, thanks. btw, how do you determine it is a fakeout (or engulf)? when did you determine it is a FO? right when it happened? or after the price dropped back into the blue zone? I've noted the question on the chart, thanks for your help! {quote} {image}

I was hoping someone would ask this question.

Think about what is trying to be achieved before a substantial move happens, the market movers need to disorientate as many market participants as possible. Now no one can argue that fact, not even Matt!

That want to disorientate participants into thinking there is a break out and then take the opposite side of your trade. To have sellers there must be buyer...agreed?

Lets look at the engulf and fake out. They have a job to do and it is to confuse but with in it there is a signal. You may consider when either happens it doesnt react to anything to push it back in the channel, it is only doing its job, to clear path or fake.

The question on the tip of everyone's tongue " what happens first, the chicken or the egg?"

This is key in the chart you question. The engulf happens first to show direction and the fake out up top to cause confusion. Remember this as it will serve you well.

Does this help?

Warren

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  • #29,866
  • Mar 4, 2015 3:05pm Mar 4, 2015 3:05pm
Quoting bigwal
long answer
I appreciate the answer.
First entry (usdcad) seemed a legitimate engulf since that low was in fact a decision to push higher (looked like a chart of yours @ post #29840).

Quoting bigwal
other answers
Same question as charvo.
Bring more live charts and show it in real time when possible.
  • #29,867
  • Mar 4, 2015 3:14pm Mar 4, 2015 3:14pm
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  • #29,868
  • Mar 4, 2015 3:17pm Mar 4, 2015 3:17pm
Quoting bigwal
{image}

Hi Warren,

On this chart ive posted ive highlighted an engulf of the swing to the left. The circle shows the decision to break up and the source of the engulf. Price didn't return to source on this occasion. Is this a good example or have I got it wrong?

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Cheers
  • #29,869
  • Mar 4, 2015 3:30pm Mar 4, 2015 3:30pm
Quoting NaughtyPip
{quote} Hi Warren, On this chart ive posted ive highlighted an engulf of the swing to the left. The circle shows the decision to break up and the source of the engulf. Price didn't return to source on this occasion. Is this a good example or have I got it wrong? {image} Cheers

Naughtypip,

This is a continuation engulf, price engulfs the high as you say then retests it. The pocket that is formed above the break is important, hence the pullback to it. It is not like a reverse engulf. So you may of waited for the pullback to source after the first engulf which didnt happen. But i would say you would see the next.

Warren
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  • #29,870
  • Mar 4, 2015 3:40pm Mar 4, 2015 3:40pm
Quoting swanlake
{image}

Swanlake,

I know it sounds really anal on the chart as we are dealing with a minuscule engulf on that third low. But it is an engulf of the last low. As you so rightly point out the full on engulf doesnt return to source fully. Clearly they wanted it down.

Warren
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  • #29,871
  • Mar 4, 2015 4:03pm Mar 4, 2015 4:03pm
Bit of compression, quite a tricky one, to train the eyes for.

Can you understand what is happen here, more importantly if you look left along the very top thin red line, what do you see?

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W
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  • #29,872
  • Mar 4, 2015 4:08pm Mar 4, 2015 4:08pm
Thanks Bigwal
Really appreciate what you are doing here taking the time to help us understand.
  • #29,873
  • Mar 4, 2015 4:26pm Mar 4, 2015 4:26pm
Quoting swanlake
Thanks Bigwal Really appreciate what you are doing here taking the time to help us understand.
Someone helped me, to be honest it is accumulated help over the years. What i done was looked at it logically, who is moving the market, why and how?

This place was my turning point from here the last few years just started falling into place. Look my name up 4 years back on this thread talking to RED like your talking to me. Back then i couldnt see shite. But i could tell there was something in it.

Thanks for your kind words.

W
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  • #29,874
  • Mar 4, 2015 4:32pm Mar 4, 2015 4:32pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...67#post4153467

Such a long time ago!
I need to finish something i started
  • #29,875
  • Mar 4, 2015 4:34pm Mar 4, 2015 4:34pm
many thanks, also per your reply to swanlake, i guess this is what you meant

one issue i'll have is that if i enter a short at where the fakeout happens, i'll suffer from a stoploss, lol, not sure how you deal with it?

Quoting bigwal
{quote} This is key in the chart you question. The engulf happens first to show direction and the fake out up top to cause confusion. Remember this as it will serve you well. Does this help? Warren {image}
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  • #29,876
  • Mar 4, 2015 4:45pm Mar 4, 2015 4:45pm
Quoting charvo
many thanks, also per your reply to swanlake, i guess this is what you meant one issue i'll have is that if i enter a short at where the fakeout happens, i'll suffer from a stoploss, lol, not sure how you deal with it? {quote} {image}
That is exactly the point. How many traders thought that was a breakout trade?. If it engulfs first , we are going down. The first step to be in the 5%, is know their game.

Once engulfed i have held my trade and given the stoploss space or jumped to 1 min chart to look harder for an entry.

Do you see now how they are trying to fcuk with us.

Can you pinpoint an entry on 1 min if you had to?


W
I need to finish something i started
  • #29,877
  • Mar 4, 2015 4:56pm Mar 4, 2015 4:56pm
Hi, Warren, I can understand all right side, but have a problem on left side.

I do see on left to the top green box, there is a CP (blue arrows in your chart).

sorry for the dumb question... i just can't see it, lol

Quoting bigwal
Bit of compression, quite a tricky one, to train the eyes for. Can you understand what is happen here, more importantly if you look left along the very top thin red line, what do you see? {image} W
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  • #29,878
  • Mar 4, 2015 5:00pm Mar 4, 2015 5:00pm
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  • #29,879
  • Edited 5:38pm Mar 4, 2015 5:11pm | Edited 5:38pm
Quoting charvo
Hi, Warren, I can understand all right side, but have a problem on left side. I do see on left to the top green box, there is a CP (blue arrows in your chart). sorry for the dumb question... i just can't see it, lol {quote} {image}
Maybe that wasnt the correct wording, consumed could be better, but because of the blue arrowed CP that is why it played out like it did. There were no more sell orders left. price wants 30min supply to the left.

Compression needs keen eyes, it is all about seeing where the orders still are (unused pockets of supply or demand)

Compression is doing a job and that is to clear any pockets of demand as it rises, then we often see a liquidity spike into supply just to freak out the weak hands. By this time there is so much smart money ready to go short thats what causes a liquidity spike. The orders must be filled.

EDIT FOR CHARVO: Is what you marked as an engulf low , just another feed for buyers off the flip? and no question, is a dumb question!

W
I need to finish something i started
  • #29,880
  • Mar 4, 2015 7:18pm Mar 4, 2015 7:18pm
I've made it a policy not to look at FF during my trading times. For me focus is key. As a matter of fact Skype rooms are off the table until positions have been entered and the decision has been made that the trading day has ended.

Today was an interesting day of trading. News releases and such to contend with just after the US open.

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I missed a UJ long while watching a video on vinyl floor repair.....Getting ready for the work day
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