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Following the big money

  • #1,421
  • Feb 25, 2015 5:34am Feb 25, 2015 5:34am
GBPCAD considering a short position, at current price, what are are your views?
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Dkt
  • #1,422
  • Mar 2, 2015 9:02am Mar 2, 2015 9:02am
Dax long trade
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  • #1,423
  • Mar 2, 2015 9:18am Mar 2, 2015 9:18am
Test of round number resistance traded via binary option
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  • #1,424
  • Mar 2, 2015 9:33am Mar 2, 2015 9:33am
Quoting srmfx
Dax long trade {image}
Last part closed at +49
  • #1,425
  • Mar 3, 2015 4:44am Mar 3, 2015 4:44am
Quoting srmfx
I start this thread with the intention to share my 15-years trading experience. Actually I already did this but my books are in Bulgarian and this could be a little hurdle to most of the FF readers. Let me explain the logic behind my trading style. After all these years trading forex and futures I understand one thing - if you want to make profits just follow the big money. That is what the trading is all about. The point is that the big guys never tell you in advance what they intend to do and you have to learn to think they way they think. The...
I can tell you now you're not following big money.

"The point is that the big guys never tell you in advance what they intend to do and you have to learn to think they way they think."

What do you mean tell you in advance? Broadcast it on Bloomberg TV?

Big players are all in competition with each other too, no one's telling anyone what they're doing.

What I keep seeing on this forum is everyone is looking at too smaller time frames. 1 minute chart really? There's nothing but noise.

Think about it, if Goldman Sachs has 10 million dollars worth of contracts to fill, you really think they're gonna be looking at a 1 minute chart? It takes a lot long to fill that many orders in fact it might take a couple of hours.
Simon says die
  • #1,426
  • Edited 1:45am Mar 4, 2015 1:13am | Edited 1:45am
Quoting SimonPhoenix
{quote} I can tell you now you're not following big money. "The point is that the big guys never tell you in advance what they intend to do and you have to learn to think they way they think." What do you mean tell you in advance? Broadcast it on Bloomberg TV? Big players are all in competition with each other too, no one's telling anyone what they're doing. What I keep seeing on this forum is everyone is looking at too smaller time frames. 1 minute chart really? There's nothing but noise. Think about it, if Goldman Sachs has 10 million dollars...
Simon, the big money move the market and the only way to profit is to follow them one way or the other. I worked as risk manager and bank dealer also and know the market from different points of view. The fact the you think that "it takes a lot long to fill" 10 mio worth of contracts shows that you don't know much about how the markets operate. This is relatively small amount for an order nowadays.
Actually, I could name the thread Order flow trading, but the content is much more important than the name. It's not that difficult to learn what the big guys do and to try to follow or avoid their tricks.
  • #1,427
  • Mar 4, 2015 2:34am Mar 4, 2015 2:34am
Firstly I would like to thank you for engaging in discussion in a civil way so thank you.

What does not make sense to me is your tight, static stop placement.

Your stop should be placed somewhere structural so that if it gets hit it means change = change in context and direction, that way you don't get stopped out for no reason. The big guys know you don't know where to put your stop hence why we see stop runs all the time. They use your stops as liquidity to fill their orders in fact you could call it stop hunting.

I understand order flow probably more than you do, I see you don't even use a footprint chart so how are you suppose to see where the large orders are being accumulated?

It is difficult to learn what the big guys do because its so discretionary. I'm glad you use order flow because this is key in understand direction since volume measures the success or failure of a move...but I've not seen anyone use volume in the same way as the big guys.
Simon says die
  • #1,428
  • Mar 4, 2015 3:13am Mar 4, 2015 3:13am
Quoting SimonPhoenix
Firstly I would like to thank you for engaging in discussion in a civil way so thank you. What does not make sense to me is your tight, static stop placement. Your stop should be placed somewhere structural so that if it gets hit it means change = change in context and direction, that way you don't get stopped out for no reason. The big guys know you don't know where to put your stop hence why we see stop runs all the time. They use your stops as liquidity to fill their orders in fact you could call it stop hunting. I understand order flow probably...
I think that I get your point and you are right. Following the big money should mean trading on higher frames etc. Actually, I'm trying to take advantage of the big money tricks.
Probably I'm bored after more than 15 years trading and hedging and I use the markets for making some money. I don't even trade my STE set up often because it requires active position management.
  • #1,429
  • Mar 4, 2015 3:30am Mar 4, 2015 3:30am
Have you considered swing trading, at least that way it isn't so stressful and you can look for good R:R. It also allows you to do something else with your day lol. By looking at higher time frames like the weekly and monthly you can work out the path of least resistance (which way it's most likely to go) and leave it to do its thing instead of aiming for a few pips. If you take swings on say a weekly time frame if you trade the extremes of the range your R:R will be huge.

For example;

I'm desperately trying to short the USD/JPY right now just trying to wait for a good set up because of the market condition and everything I can see I expect this to make another rotation down to the other side of this range.

It's at 119.600 now, I want 120.000 preferably, the high is at 200.275 so my stop goes above there and the target is 115.800. That's risking 0.275 pips to make 400 pips and I don't even have to be here, I can go to the gym, watch tv, get another job etc lol.

Just for reference the R:R ratio is about 1:100

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Simon says die
  • #1,430
  • Mar 4, 2015 3:35am Mar 4, 2015 3:35am
Quoting SimonPhoenix
Have you considered swing trading, at least that way it isn't so stressful and you can look for good R:R. It also allows you to do something else with your day lol. By looking at higher time frames like the weekly and monthly you can work out the path of least resistance (which way it's most likely to go) and leave it to do its thing instead of aiming for a few pips. If you take swings on say a weekly time frame if you trade the extremes of the range your R:R will be huge. For example; I'm desperately trying to short the USD/JPY right now just trying...
Waiting is not my game. You should be yourself in trading.
  • #1,431
  • Mar 4, 2015 3:45am Mar 4, 2015 3:45am
That's fair enough.

You can obviously apply the same strategy but to a smaller time frame.

Anyway all the best.
Simon says die
  • #1,432
  • Mar 4, 2015 4:19am Mar 4, 2015 4:19am
Quoting SimonPhoenix
That's fair enough. You can obviously apply the same strategy but to a smaller time frame. Anyway all the best.
Absolutely. Only the frequency of the set ups, and the size of the stop and limit are different.
  • #1,433
  • Mar 6, 2015 2:27am Mar 6, 2015 2:27am
Binaries are the better choice when vol is low.
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  • #1,434
  • Mar 6, 2015 6:00am Mar 6, 2015 6:00am
Test of a round number traded via 1-minute binaries
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  • #1,435
  • Mar 6, 2015 7:49am Mar 6, 2015 7:49am
STE at 200 EMA traded via 1-minute binary
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  • #1,436
  • Mar 9, 2015 4:27am Mar 9, 2015 4:27am
One of my favorite set ups. STE at 200 EMA traded via 1-minute binary
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  • #1,437
  • Mar 9, 2015 6:49am Mar 9, 2015 6:49am
Another STE at 200 EMA
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  • #1,438
  • Mar 10, 2015 3:53am Mar 10, 2015 3:53am
Round number test
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  • #1,439
  • Mar 10, 2015 4:55am Mar 10, 2015 4:55am
Hi, do you trade the breakouts of the supports/resistances or trade them as solid points of bounces, and is there any fixed tp/sl?
  • #1,440
  • Mar 10, 2015 9:25am Mar 10, 2015 9:25am
Quoting Ed-Forex
Hi, do you trade the breakouts of the supports/resistances or trade them as solid points of bounces, and is there any fixed tp/sl?
I trade the bounce off support/resistance (round numbers and 200 ema) via 1-minute binaries The risk is limited to the premium of the binary option. The profit is the payout of the option.
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