Price is everything

Did GBPNZD D1 just make a QM at supply?

First of all, great to see this legendary thread alive again ! I was watch'n UJ for a QM setup but fokked up by overcomplicating things look'n to get the perfect zero drawdown entry. I wanted to sell the retrace after the bulltrap at the DBD on the 1H-TF which coincided with a nice QM lvl, the width of that DBD was about 8 pips so a TT at the low of the DBD and a SL of just 8 pips would be enough for some nice pips. But I came up with another sell limit derived from a DP on the lower TF and didn't get filled, price came 0.5 pip shy ............ sometimes it's better to keep things simple

Who's word are this:

"One of the key things I look for is not a certain time frame , but which level is the clearest no matter what time it is. The same with my trades i don't trade a pair I trade the best entries usually."

bit of gold analysis

Here is the price of not paying attention to what you're doing...

warren entry:

last decision engulfed. short at source.

some CAD news this afternoon - things could get interesting

Are you basing this off the larger M30 supply zone to the left?

EDIT: I only ask, because the supply in that area looks as though it doesn't begin until higher up.

It's always painful when you miss something so obvious, then watch it take off like this...

Yes, supply could be higher, but that low too. Engulf south was the signal.

After many painstaking hours (Make that thousands of hours) at the screen, I finally came to the realisation that an engulf basically means nothing, unless it's in the right context. There are lots of decision points that get broken, but unless it comes from a relevant area, then there's not really much to be taken from it. Only now that UCAD has reach the higher area am I looking to try and get short.

Guys I've started a new thread. Similar vein to this one really, but it's going to be moderated.


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=529372

And now an update on UCAD.

Update:

engulfing whipsaw pattern (not sure because bear candle didn't close below cluster low)

may be a bull flag developing around the blue line

failed

ltf setup of the same picture failed too

jmatt35,

Nice point about making it a Warren entry. This is not my type of entry, just because something makes a LL or HH does not make it a Engulf with purpose.
I know you are just trying to catch the method out and making really slack trading decisions to make it out as a myth or whatever.

I have described in numerous posts what else i look for or consider. Let me help you if you are struggling.

1. An engulf must show intention and be purposeful, it is intended to end a trend of sorts, even on intraday, not necessarily talking long term trend. It takes an awful lot of money to turn the market .

2 Position of the engulfing pattern. Extremes are favourites, remember market movers like wholesale. I did notice on both your charts that you called supply not at an extreme...WHOLESALE

3. Time of day. At london or us open volume enters the market, you can see the market at work over both sessions at times. Price is attracted to extremes like a magnet and often we may see multiple up and down moves during the day.

4, Red has said here many times over " Price can not turn without engulf"

5. The purpose of engulf is to take out an important area and clear the orders for a free route later. The orders form the start of an engulf are more often than not at an extreme, as price moves away with these large orders, is price wholesale anymore??? After the engulf has happened price is pulled back to the source (Wholesale) for another load of orders. You can sometimes see another spike back or two...what are these for ??? filling more orders. This is why we see such a sharp move away from GOOD engulfing patterns. This is quite a key point to understand that great volumes are involved and if you dump 1000's of lots in the market price will move away rapidly and you will not always get a fill, so it has to be done in a few hits , whilst still filling orders at wholesale price. It confuses the average trader, by the time you know what is happening it is off like a race horse.


6. If news is due we often see an engulf happen shortly before and as news strikes it is pulled back to source for a massive move. If you pull up your charts you will see this over and over. They know which way price is going to move before the fact.

7. Over time you become more acustom to price action and you can see where orders are filled (pullbacks) and orders are cleared (engulf). Price structure is fluid and can appear different in its view on our chart. When we consider the now , we must look left to see what price can react to . Has the supply or demand pocket been consumed on route (orders filled) or is there still pockets of fresh supply / demand. Our movement may have trouble there if the intention is to break through. What about compression, how do you view that??

You marked up engulfs now look rather piss poor. I know what you are doing, but until you see it properly you will mince around clutching at straws and bashing everything YOU CANT EXPLAIN.

I will post some more examples later

Warren

[quote=bigwal; You marked up engulfs now look rather piss poor. I know what you are doing, but until you see it properly[/quote]

NIce post, as always Warren...

Looking forward to see you expand on this, wich engulfs are sgnificant and wich are not, this is also a weakness of mine.

Thank you

Ok chart time

This was/is really helpful - the wee differences that make all the difference - thankyou Warren.