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Price is everything

  • #29,821
  • Mar 3, 2015 8:29am Mar 3, 2015 8:29am
Just to be clear, I didn't post the H1 chart with the intention of saying that it was signalling a downwards move. My only intention was to show that even Red's setups are time frame dependent, as there is no way he could see some of his intraday scalps on a H1 chart etc. However, when it comes to the way price moves, that is when I would agree that time frame has no place. A H4 chart will show the same kinds of patterns as an M5 chart. The only difference is that at times of very low liquidity, you might see the M5 chart look a little more spiky. Other than that, it's all the same.
In boxing, all the champion's results are visible. In forex, talk is cheap.
  • #29,822
  • Mar 3, 2015 8:54am Mar 3, 2015 8:54am
jmatt35 I dont understand if you don't like the system why dont you go elsewhere? so much noise from you part, come on you are annoying
  • #29,823
  • Mar 3, 2015 8:58am Mar 3, 2015 8:58am
For me this thread has come alive and it is really great to see. Out for lunch and will add my charts later on with anything that has been questioned direct to me.

Warren
I need to finish something i started
  • #29,824
  • Mar 3, 2015 9:17am Mar 3, 2015 9:17am
On my phone eur usd i am seeing engulf south 1 min chart.

Who is viewing this.

Gotta go tend to if it is


Warren
I need to finish something i started
  • #29,825
  • Mar 3, 2015 9:19am Mar 3, 2015 9:19am
Quoting By_Tor2114
{quote} So I decided to act on this one, but it didn't really go as hoped. Maybe Warren can chime in and point out where I went wrong, or if this is just one of those trades that wasn't meant to be. {image}
Hey Tor2114
I'm no expert at this (yet!) - just learning like yourself and appreciate the charts you're posting (pls keep it up). Regarding this particular example, the problem may be that the supply level where you shorted was not fresh?? see the notes added to your screenshot.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 03.03.2015-12.00 By Tor2114 no fresh supply.png Size: 76 KB
only dead fish swim with the stream
  • #29,826
  • Mar 3, 2015 9:21am Mar 3, 2015 9:21am
i am short as of 1.11945

Apologise for crude posting. no multi screen phone
I need to finish something i started
  • #29,827
  • Mar 3, 2015 9:52am Mar 3, 2015 9:52am
Warren, very nice! what did pt 1 break (or reach)? it is indeed essential!


Quoting bigwal
{quote} Tor2114, This is where i feel that 1 minute chart can be a bit to sensitive and why i use 5 min chart. At the low point 1, what did that really break, was it something important or did it play out exactly the way it should and found the buyers. Would the 5 minute chart just show a pullback to an important area. I am out now and wil not be able to produce a chart till later. I promise i will. Warren
  • #29,828
  • Mar 3, 2015 9:54am Mar 3, 2015 9:54am
Hi, Tor, interesting that you pointed the issue on Matt's chart. then i saw similar thing on yours. just for discussion, my view:


though it'll still be a loss, but smaller. the failure might be due to HTF look......

edited: your left side HTF supply zone is wide, i see it. then you need to define internal decision points in that left zone. you also need to watch potential fakeout into it. it often happens.

Quoting By_Tor2114
Matt, The zone you've drawn is a bit in the middle of nowhere, but the thing that's really kicked it in the nuts is that the "source" you've drawn is in the wrong place. It should be as the image below (The red lines), and it would give you plenty of time to take some profit, or move to BE. {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 03.03.2015-12.00.png Size: 55 KB
  • #29,829
  • Mar 3, 2015 9:57am Mar 3, 2015 9:57am
Quoting charvo
Hi, Tor, interesting that you pointed the issue on Matt's chart. then i saw similar thing on yours. just for discussion, my view: though it'll still be a loss, but smaller. the failure might be due to HTF look...... {quote} {image}
Hi Charvo,

For my style of trading, the loss would have been the same, as I always use a risk of 2%. It makes no difference if I lose 10 pips, 20 pips or 100 pips, as my risk is always set to 2%.
In boxing, all the champion's results are visible. In forex, talk is cheap.
  • #29,830
  • Mar 3, 2015 10:03am Mar 3, 2015 10:03am
Quoting By_Tor2114
{quote} So I decided to act on this one, but it didn't really go as hoped. Maybe Warren can chime in and point out where I went wrong, or if this is just one of those trades that wasn't meant to be. {image}
Hi Ben,

I've pasted the text of your last post because I don't know how or if we're able to do double-quotes.

Attached Image


It was seeing your UJ trade above that essentially compelled me to start replying today. But first here's a line from your last post:

+++
A H4 chart will show the same kinds of patterns as an M5 chart.
+++

I couldn't agree more. And for me it's one of the most elegant points of how the market cycles. But there can also be a big problem with this if we mix and match timeframes, especially when we're looking for entries and planning our risk profile etc.

For me, the UJ trade illustrates the point precisely. It also illustrates what I've been attempting to say today (in a bit of a round about way I'm afraid - apologies for that). What I see on this above setup is an attempt to sell M1 signals at a M30 level (the light blue box essentially). I appreciate it may not have been the intention to do that but I've seen a lot of traders (myself included) enter the market this way and get caught out time and again.

Without getting too detailed, in my view, price was testing a M30 fresh level and essentially, the most reliable and simple way to trade an M30 level is to wait for a M30 signal. I'm not saying that the microscopic M1 stuff inside higher timeframes isn't possible but I do hand on heart believe that some of the "teaching" websites out there have presented this kind of thing in such an obscure manner that it's ended up doing far more harm than good.

Below is another after-the-fact M30 chart. A clean entry was on the resolution of the bearish whipsaw after first test of the M30 level.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYM30.png Size: 38 KB
  • #29,831
  • Mar 3, 2015 10:12am Mar 3, 2015 10:12am
Hi Simon,

It's a very good point. In the course of a zone that's been drawn on H4, there could be many engulfs on LTF. Obviously, only some of them can actually be traded successfully. I think the key to using LTF with HTF is that you should really only expect a LTF target. In other words, an M1 engulf is unlikely to produce a move of 200 pips! I've seen a lot of people trying to force a 10:1 risk reward ratio, only to have the trade reverse after getting to 2:1. Contrary to popular belief, by compounding a small account, a 2:1 trade per day will make you a millionaire in a very short amount of time.

But to get back to your original point, I agree that you need to be careful when combing engulfs on different TFs. There are some that do it very well. I'm personally not a member of his site, but Joe Wright at Maximum Lots seems to do pretty well as a long term trader that uses LTF engulfs for entries and exits. In face, his use of LTF exits kinda fits in with what I was saying about having realistic targets!
In boxing, all the champion's results are visible. In forex, talk is cheap.
  • #29,832
  • Mar 3, 2015 10:14am Mar 3, 2015 10:14am
On a side note, here's a trade I just took on EU. Hopefully Warren was out of his short by the time I went long

It's a bit aggressive, but it was a similar approach to what I posted earlier. Excuse the slightly dodgy exit.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 03.03.2015-16.07.png Size: 25 KB
In boxing, all the champion's results are visible. In forex, talk is cheap.
  • #29,833
  • Mar 3, 2015 10:18am Mar 3, 2015 10:18am
Maybe Warren and Buffit are one and the same

http://gyazo.com/1635a7d85d89ff49293c1307e46c57c1
  • #29,834
  • Mar 3, 2015 1:04pm Mar 3, 2015 1:04pm
Quoting simond2002
Maybe Warren and Buffit are one and the same http://gyazo.com/1635a7d85d89ff49293c1307e46c57c1

Great old guy he is.
I need to finish something i started
  • #29,835
  • Mar 3, 2015 1:30pm Mar 3, 2015 1:30pm
I took a similar position today using the 5m chart...
Attached Image

Do you see the bull candle which has the red arrow pointing down on it?
Well that candle triggered me to be alert of a sell.
You can see on the next candle I took a sell, even though the candle closed green. Why did I do so? Only because that green candle resulted in a FAKE engulf of the red candle which alerted me to take a sell.
You can then see over the next 35 mins, we had fakes to the upside of the same candle which caused me to want to trade.
We then got a breakout to the down side right to the daily pivot.

I essential take these kind of orders often looking for those fake engulfs, in which I take profit at or near the daily pivot which it is moving to. What I then do is have another account with a pending order on the opposite side in case we get a massive reversal (In this case to the upside) Luckly we never got that spike up, and I was able to gain 13% on that one trade.
That trade is within the "trade explorer" which I have posted below. I for one enjoy taking those type of positions as they result in very accurate entries, and sharp breakouts.
Looking "cool" isn't so "COOL" after all. #ProfilePicture
  • #29,836
  • Mar 3, 2015 2:26pm Mar 3, 2015 2:26pm
Quoting bigwal
i am short as of 1.11945 Apologise for crude posting. no multi screen phone

Update:

Little bit overzealous on the 1 min engulf, looking on the 5 min chart which is the lowest tf i feel comfortable it had not engulfed anything south. It is all about the decision points (flag limit for the razzle dazzle). It went south to find more buyers and that fuelled the last leg up to supply on the hourly, where it has dropped ever since.

Note to self: Never be on a lunch, try to scalp trade and post on PIE thread via a mobile phone. Out at BE+1

What causes so much confusion is TIME FRAMES and the decision points within them. If there was one TF , life would be more simple for all.

Why do i call them decision points? Because that is what they are, a decision to go higher or lower. Now if the decision point has been engulfed, especially when the market is active we see a move to the next decision point. Which can be next fresh supply or demand or the base of a swing. The market movers love the high and low of a swing, look on the hourly.

If we trade a 5 min engulf up into 4 hr supply the scales are not in your favor. It would probably be the last spurt up into it commonly known as a liquidity bar.

On my desktop at home i have screens much larger than my mobile phone and this is how i set them up.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart set up.jpg Size: 486 KB
I need to finish something i started
  • #29,837
  • Mar 3, 2015 2:42pm Mar 3, 2015 2:42pm
Quoting bigwal
{quote} Update: Little bit overzealous on the 1 min engulf, looking on the 5 min chart which is the lowest tf i feel comfortable it had not engulfed anything south. It is all about the decision points (flag limit for the razzle dazzle). It went south to find more buyers and that fuelled the last leg up to supply on the hourly, where it has dropped ever since. Note to self: Never be on a lunch, try to scalp trade and post on PIE thread via a mobile phone. Out at BE+1 What causes so much confusion is TIME FRAMES and the decision points within them....
could you please give a basic definition of what it's a decision point for you? all this terms really mess with my head
  • #29,838
  • Mar 3, 2015 2:59pm Mar 3, 2015 2:59pm
Quoting By_Tor2114
{quote} So I decided to act on this one, but it didn't really go as hoped. Maybe Warren can chime in and point out where I went wrong, or if this is just one of those trades that wasn't meant to be. {image}

This is very after the fact,

if you saw the supply on 30min, which is the clearest. You probably had the same issue as everyone of us, where is the point of true supply. Every TF puts a different spin on it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CHEATED BY A GNATS COCK.jpg Size: 428 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: LTF VS HTF.jpg Size: 426 KB
I need to finish something i started
  • #29,839
  • Mar 3, 2015 3:14pm Mar 3, 2015 3:14pm
Sometimes you just have to take a loser and not question it, I guess. If we could nail it on every trade, there'd be no market left!
In boxing, all the champion's results are visible. In forex, talk is cheap.
  • #29,840
  • Mar 3, 2015 3:15pm Mar 3, 2015 3:15pm
Quoting vladutz112
{quote} could you please give a basic definition of what it's a decision point for you? all this terms really mess with my head

Vlad,

Yes unfortunately there are many different terms. I am sticking with mine

Here is a good example it is based on a engulf continuation. When price breaks a prior high or low with an engulf the decision that once was , is no more.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DP CONTINUATION.jpg Size: 453 KB
I need to finish something i started
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