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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #4,981
  • Mar 1, 2015 6:16pm Mar 1, 2015 6:16pm
Quoting Vermillion
That's a pretty decent looking bullish candlestick on the 15min. chart.
Tokyo sells Yen from start, also bought GU, but currently stuck. Move not confirmed, GBP may head lower. w8 for m15...h1 confirm. Looks bullish, but that yellow thingie is strong.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #4,982
  • Mar 1, 2015 6:22pm Mar 1, 2015 6:22pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Tokyo sells Yen from start, also bought GU, but currently stuck. Move not confirmed, {image}
The start of every month tends to be iffy on the first few hours. Not surprised about Tokyo selling yen-that's what the BOJ wants in the end for now.

I'm rather concerned about the usd/jpy; that thing usually takes forever to move a couple dozen pips, but it's been rolling high almost right after the market opened today, well before Tokyo.

If usd/jpy hits 120.20-ish, I plan on shorting it, and I'll watch it once it hits 120. I don't plan on getting much; only a couple dozen pips at the most.
  • #4,983
  • Mar 1, 2015 6:24pm Mar 1, 2015 6:24pm
GJ is held up by Dollar Yen. However, UJ is possibly in the very final stage of this move in its triangle before the final move down
  • #4,984
  • Mar 1, 2015 6:26pm Mar 1, 2015 6:26pm
Quoting Vermillion
Possibility of scraping 185.30-ish before continuing down. If 185.30 becomes support, I see 186. If not, and 185 still remains a hard resistance, then we'll probably have a stronger/clearer movement down. ...That's a pretty decent looking bullish candlestick on the 15min. chart.

185.20 - 185.44 looks interesting. Midway between DPs.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If you are new to FX don"t follow my trades, I 've blown many live accounts
  • #4,985
  • Mar 1, 2015 6:28pm Mar 1, 2015 6:28pm
Quoting Vermillion
If usd/jpy hits 120.20-ish, I plan on shorting it, and I'll watch it once it hits 120. I don't plan on getting much; only a couple dozen pips at the most.
I TP there - 120,421-120,666. May try scalpie, but prolly not, I always burn my hands when trying it . More possibly waiting for reload... But think all market is watching 120s, so PA will have it pretty hard to make it there and people start shorting way sooner. Dunno, I just wait, as usuall. Am a bit sad I hold so few UJs, but same goes for Aussie shorts. Both pairs burned me so am tight.

Btw, China PMI incoming.

GU seems to be preparing for thrust.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #4,986
  • Mar 1, 2015 6:37pm Mar 1, 2015 6:37pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} I TP there - 120,421-120,666. May try scalpie, but prolly not, I always burn my hands when trying it . More possibly waiting for reload... But think all market is watching 120s, so PA will have it pretty hard to make it there and people start shorting way sooner. Dunno, I just wait, as usuall. Am a bit sad I hold so few UJs, but same goes for Aussie shorts. Both pairs burned me so am tight. Btw, China PMI incoming.
120.30 +/- 20 pips is a point of contention and a resistance last tested on Feb 12. It'll be hard to break past that without correcting, at least. Don't know about actually hitting it, though.

I don't think 120 itself is considered as strong psychological resistance as it used to be anymore, given all the times as of late where it was breached. I'm leaning more towards previous tested areas and fib. points.

This Sunday trading day is pretty active, all things considered.
  • #4,987
  • Mar 1, 2015 6:45pm Mar 1, 2015 6:45pm
Quoting Vermillion
This Sunday trading day is pretty active, all things considered.
Yeh, dunno what is happening. Why do Japans care so much bout GBP and Euro huh? One would expect them to trade only Yen . It moves the most though. + Aussie.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #4,988
  • Mar 1, 2015 7:25pm Mar 1, 2015 7:25pm
In the case that UJ got over 120.3 and broke 120.6, then the up trend has resumed. Failure here, or in the next 20-30 pips says the down trend is imminent --- as in right here, right now.
  • #4,989
  • Mar 1, 2015 7:59pm Mar 1, 2015 7:59pm
Quoting Mpt
In the case that UJ got over 120.3 and broke 120.6, then the up trend has resumed. Failure here, or in the next 20-30 pips says the down trend is imminent --- as in right here, right now.
Nice assessment. The thing is, however, it often takes usd/jpy many hours or even a whole day to move 20-30 pips. Granted, today is more active than usual, but we may not hit 120~120.30 for some time.

Wait and see, I suppose.
  • #4,990
  • Edited 9:31pm Mar 1, 2015 8:46pm | Edited 9:31pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Nice assessment. The thing is, however, it often takes usd/jpy many hours or even a whole day to move 20-30 pips. Granted, today is more active than usual, but we may not hit 120~120.30 for some time. Wait and see, I suppose.

Noted. When you give up on analysing this pair, you have to look at the other two a bit closer - not so much for destination, but purely for direction.


Anyway, one last comment about the UJ 'triangle', a topic I've been going on about since December. I raise it again because (a) it has an impact on GJ and (b) because, unlike Cable, a UJ triangle has a reasonable/high level of predictability to it.

As I alluded to before, any failure around here for Uj has it entering what should be a 5th and final leg of said triangle. Downside targets would be between 117.5 and 116. The final leg is often fairly fast - as in this week. Below 116 means it really wasn't a bullish triangle and the past three months were a total deception.

Again, over 120.6 suggests (a) the up trend has resumed early or (b) it's morphing into something bigger and more tiresome.
  • #4,991
  • Mar 1, 2015 9:38pm Mar 1, 2015 9:38pm
pmi coming out in a few hours. if its strong maybe get about 50-100 pip move north. if so that should rocket us up to 186 ish+ im getting ready to close out my short. hopefully we get to 184 in the nwxt couple hours although im not holding my breath lol
  • #4,992
  • Mar 1, 2015 9:46pm Mar 1, 2015 9:46pm
has anyone looked at NZDJPY? thinking the pullback might be over shortly
  • #4,993
  • Mar 1, 2015 10:37pm Mar 1, 2015 10:37pm
I can't get at that nzd jpy.....dangit
the 30M chart has a famous bullish three candle formation just completed.....gbp/jpy
  • #4,994
  • Mar 1, 2015 10:49pm Mar 1, 2015 10:49pm
Quoting Gbp/jpy
I can't get at that nzd jpy.....dangit the 30M chart has a famous bullish three candle formation just completed.....gbp/jpy
Maybe it's a sign that there's about to be an intervention. Maybe the BOJ is unhappy that Dollar Yen has fallen back 6 pips, out of their preferred range 119.95/119.93.
  • #4,995
  • Mar 1, 2015 11:00pm Mar 1, 2015 11:00pm
Trying a long trade from here.. 184.61

Happy Trades
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #4,996
  • Mar 2, 2015 1:16am Mar 2, 2015 1:16am
euro sell....down to 1133 or so
  • #4,997
  • Mar 2, 2015 3:37am Mar 2, 2015 3:37am
Quoting FX-Ray
Okay before I leave, we got some news this week, if news are out and volatility accrues and price go right through a DP to the next, take countertrades for quick 30-60Pips, ofcourse you may get more but who knows. Most important part will be the taking profit. We may get some great opportunities this week so watch out and be patient, catch ya guys in the morning, laters Anyway: E/U is at 1.1180/65, decision for up or down is taken here, if 1.1165 holds it gets interesting (Source)...
E/U; trade
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  • #4,998
  • Mar 2, 2015 3:46am Mar 2, 2015 3:46am
G/J at DP 184.90/80
  • #4,999
  • Mar 2, 2015 4:40am Mar 2, 2015 4:40am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} E/U; trade {image}
if 1.1165 holds, first target is 1.1285/75, from here it gets interesting, if shorts cover here and price is able to sustain above 1.1285/75, next is 1.1460/50; otherwise back to 1.1180/65

Post #4228
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  • #5,000
  • Mar 2, 2015 4:42am Mar 2, 2015 4:42am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} if 1.1165 holds, first target is 1.1285/75, from here it gets interesting, if shorts cover here and price is able to sustain above 1.1285/75, next is 1.1460/50; otherwise back to 1.1180/65 {image}
Hi Ray! Time to add some company here!
Fix up, trade sharp ...
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