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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

Quoting fxterrapin
Great to have you back, seneca! Could you share with us what kind of slippage you experience (average and worst case) when counter trend trading with the larger account? For example, have you ever experienced a 15 pip SL turning into a 50 pip loss due to a fast moving market? If you could share your avg. trade size along with this, I would be very grateful. It is hard to get a feel of how liquidity is distributed in fx without having traded live and large! Thanks again.
I rarely get slipped. I am generally buying down moves and selling up moves. I always seem to be able to get in with minimal to no slip with twenty or thirty lots. I am not a big trader. I know there are people out there trading hundreds of lots. I don't trade any where near the size to move the market even a pipette.
OK,

Got a gift from the Japanese CB today. I didn't take full advantage of it because I was a little surprised by the lack of follow through on the big drop. I did get out of my troublesome position though, and have done my best to put it behind me. Let's see where the account goes by the end of the month.
Hmmm, News trade acting odd although not unusual these days in the choppy market we have had this week. My S&P futures trade was looking good but that profit has chopped in half. S&P has been an ATM this week probably need to take the gain and run.
I like these news trades. Not sure how they are going to work out longer term but they seem to go pretty quickly most of the time. Going to be experimenting with these a lot over the coming weeks.
Heh,

Since i got ignored i'll just show some example trades that i'm in right now. This is my funny money account btw. No targets and no stops.

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All based off the daily trends. There are other trades as well, none are in draw down but that can change. But if you just look at the entries you can see that you don't need to have large stops to get good returns when following the trend.
Quoting Seneca pilot
I like these news trades. Not sure how they are going to work out longer term but they seem to go pretty quickly most of the time. Going to be experimenting with these a lot over the coming weeks.
Yes, i am getting the hang of trading news. The trade is quite fast and last less than an hour. Importantly, the stop loss level is quite small. Making some good gains. will continue to experiment it using my small accounts.
Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler.
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} I rarely get slipped. I am generally buying down moves and selling up moves. I always seem to be able to get in with minimal to no slip with twenty or thirty lots. I am not a big trader. I know there are people out there trading hundreds of lots. I don't trade any where near the size to move the market even a pipette.

I'm not talking about getting in, but getting out. No doubt that you can get filled with little to no slippage when you are entering long during a market drop (or peak).
What I mean is, what kind of slippage can you incur in FX when a SL gets triggered and you have to liquidate a long position when the market keeps dropping? (i.e. selling during a sharp drop)
Hello SP,
First post here, just stumbled upon this thread yesterday and I'm through the first 20 pages. Very good read, A lot of market wisdom, thank you!
Just curious, do you still trade those original price levels of yours( W&D highs/lows, W&D open price) the same way or has the thread evolved and moved toward other methods (I flipped to last pages and noticed it's more news trading oriented)?
Thank you!
Quoting ponchofx
Hello SP, First post here, just stumbled upon this thread yesterday and I'm through the first 20 pages. Very good read, A lot of market wisdom, thank you! Just curious, do you still trade those original price levels of yours( W&D highs/lows, W&D open price) the same way or has the thread evolved and moved toward other methods (I flipped to last pages and noticed it's more news trading oriented)? Thank you!
I am only testing news trades and other new things. My primary accounts are still traded in exactly the same manner. I still love to sell highs, buy lows, and fade market closes. Simple trading as explained here. The Explorer is my test account so the things I am doing in it are largely experimental and probably over leveradged.
OK, thanks for the prompt reply!
This is a proof that your method is solid. You've been trading it for extended period of time with changing market dynamics and it has stood the test of time.
Quoting fxterrapin
{quote} I'm not talking about getting in, but getting out. No doubt that you can get filled with little to no slippage when you are entering long during a market drop (or peak). What I mean is, what kind of slippage can you incur in FX when a SL gets triggered and you have to liquidate a long position when the market keeps dropping? (i.e. selling during a sharp drop)
I've been pretty fortunate to not be caught in too many of these types of situations. I can remember a few times over the years where I have been slipped eight or ten pips. I haven't really been caught in any of the "black swan" type events or interventions.
SP,
I meant to ask you, Do you trade the M and the Yearly open price?
Quoting ponchofx
SP, I meant to ask you, Do you trade the M and the Yearly open price?
Not really. Stops get a little too big for comfort. I suppose you could trade those prices intraday but you would run a higher risk of stopping out using an appropriate stop size for intraday trading.
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} Not really. Stops get a little too big for comfort. I suppose you could trade those prices intraday but you would run a higher risk of stopping out using an appropriate stop size for intraday trading.

Hi SP Good to see you posting again. I tend to find those levels very emotionally charged and have generally found Yearly Open to be very productive. As such has it's own special place in the tool box.

Quoting ponchofx
SP, I meant to ask you, Do you trade the M and the Yearly open price?
Hi Poncho To check If the yearly open is within your risk parameters, place The Year Open price on a full year data, so take last year for example. Mark 2014 Open Then scroll back on say 1 hour chart and satisfy yourself if it is something you can incorporate into your trading style. I tend to trade U/J E/A E/Y E/Cad mainly, maybe you could look at those to start with. Even when there is a fundamental driving force which blows it through the level it invariably comes back to test.
Once You See, You Can't Unsee But You Will Get The Odd Poke In The Eye
Thanks for your reply!
By no means I suggest touch trading these levels. I would rather watch PA on smaller TF and then initiate a trade. I've noticed though that sometimes price reacts to the pip at those levels and then reverses for a few hundred pips. U/J did it recently, E/C also. I certainly find these levels more appropriate for swing rather than day trading so, you guys are right, stops must be bigger.
Quoting Seneca pilot
Trading truth: Open a chart. It looks like there is endless opportunity. Price moves up and down over large areas with trends and in ranges. Looks like you could just trade anywhere if you have a good "system". Don't get sucked in. It looks great but its dangerous. It is important to identify high probability entry points. This is another way to dismiss indicator based systems. Indicators will constantly make you enter in no mans land. The truth: You must identify specific places on the charts to place your trades and ignore all the area between...
The idea that you are getting "sucked in" is key. That is exactly what the reality of trading is. No matter where you get into the market, as soon as you click the order button (does not matter if you go short or long) you are now "at risk". The truth of the matter is that once you click the order button you no longer have any control over what happens. If you win or lose the trade it DOES NOT MATTER in the sense that you have NO CONTROL over the outcome. You gave up control when you clicked the order button. You do have control over when to click the order button, you have control over what "level or price" at which to click yourself into the market-but once you are in the market you no longer have control over the outcome. Other traders are going to place orders and decide what happens to your trade. How can you get mad at yourself for something you have no control over? You cannot predict the outcome of the trade-all you can is to put probability on your side. Once you come to grips with that concept you can move on to figuring out how to put probability on your side consistently and keep yourself on the right side of the order flow. If you can do that consistently you can become a successful trader.
"The truth of the matter is that once you click the order button you no longer have any control over what happens. If you win or lose the trade it DOES NOT MATTER in the sense that you have NO CONTROL over the outcome. You gave up control when you clicked the order button. You do have control over when to click the order button, you have control over what "level or price" at which to click yourself into the market-but once you are in the market you no longer have control over the outcome."

I agree in some ways but can't in others. I've been live trading 2 very small accounts for the last 15 months and continually prove to myself that I am by far the weakest link in the chain. The system I use I've back tested for 7-8 years and forward tested for the last 12 months and it makes way more pips than I do, always. The market can do what it wants but if we have rules and always stick to them we will always have control, easier said than done. I reckon far too many people are looking for a Holy Grail when they already have one, it's them!
Ardua Ad Astra Per
A patient trader should fine tune this method to his appetite and will enjoy it. Within it lies some gold. Stop searching for holygrail that will continue to elude you as far FX is concerned
DO NOT PM ME FOR MY METHOD OR ANYTHING PLEASE, I WOULDN'T RESPOND
Hi Chris,

I hope you and the family are well. I haven't been around this place for the last 9 months, been too busy getting screen time, developing my system and trying to get consistency but thought I would call in to say thanks now my trading morning has finished. I learned a whole lot from your thread and it's unfortunate it looks like it died but thanks for the effort, there are some absolute gems in these 200 pages. After 2.5 years of building, tweaking, improving and more tweaking the same system it looks like consistency has come my way and many of your words of wisdom have helped achieve that so thanks again. Hopefully I can come back in another years time and say the same thing!
Ardua Ad Astra Per
Hi Peter. How long have you been trading? I don't usually post on trading forums etc. Usually, it was because i was too busy trading. But, perhaps also, because i don't see much point. Trading as a hobby or as a means to an end seems to me, to be the most difficult thing to do a) if you want to become consistently profitable and b) your desire is to leave the control of others through an illusory paycheque.

Anyway, i have had the following experience:

1999 Started trading using bank account setup (Canadian banks). Traded shares. Not sure what i lost. Traded a lot of penny stocks and mining companies.
2000-2001>Made up to $2000 a day during the dot.com boom.
2000-2001. Lost up to $2000 a day during the dot.com bust.
2001-2004 FXCM: lost about $15000. Saw many 'strange spikes' and other odd chart activity. Became quite dissillusioned with F/X trading.
2004-2006 Pus500: traded to the point of almost profitability, but maintained a 34% + drawdown. Understand this 'app' is a complete child's toy.
2006-2008 Moved overseas from Canada and the UK. Made up to $5000 a month some months trading Pus500.
Total losses (approximate) to date: $90,000 US;
2008-2010 Did not trade much
2010 Moved to China. Continued to trade Pus500. Made some money; lost some money.
2012 (August). Lost $17,000 on a single trade with Pus500. I got bored with FX and bought EVN (Evolution Mining) an Australian Mining company
worth about $200 million; a year later they were supposedly worth $600 million. Immediately after i bought, the shares plummeted and within
two months or so were down 40%. I am certain Plus500, through a syndicate deal with the banks, traded my account to margin. Once the account
was margined, the shares 'recovered' and eventually within 6 months, came above the level i purchased them at and much higher. (the shares are
currently listed on ASX).
2012 Started trading with XM. Made some money; then lost money consistently due to lack of methodology, knowledge and discipline (since the start!)
2016 Losses on XM between 2012 - 2015 are about 23,000 Euros, due primarily to same issues: lack of methodology, knowledge, discipline, and MM;
2016 1Q Possibly profitable, due to complete change in approach to one using minimal indicators, careful monitoring, avoiding overtrading; topping up only as a last resort; minimising the use of leverage; good money management; and replicating knowledge gained from reviewing trading forums, and the comments from hard-hit retail traders whom the brokers have made their cash cow bar none (approximately 20% of all forex trading is now done by ignorant, uninformed and foolhardy retail traders, who don't have a clue what the wealthy satanists have designed to steal from them).
2017 TBC

2015
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