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I've figured out why so many people lose money in Forex

  • #361
  • Edited 12:52am Mar 1, 2015 12:39am | Edited 12:52am
Quoting Profit Daily
I think I've figured it out. I haven't seen a post from Maple Leaf in quite a while. maybe with a little investigation, we can reveal replaced and Maple Leaf as one and the same.



About roulette. While the odds of winning are 1/36, 1/37, 1/38 depending on the 00's, and then additional odds for even or odd, black or red, row or column, etc, the number the ball chooses is completely random. There is absolutely no order to roulette. It is entirely random. That number field they use to show you historical data is pure nonsense

Forex, on the other hand, is highly predictable. So, there ya go...the difference

People who blow accounts are not using any probability. They are using the method taught by Wall Street to benefit Wall Street. You know, that support/resistance nonsense. If you are not trading with any probability, then sure, the market looks random and a sure way to lose money. Those of us that use probability, and then get chastised by those of you trading like its still 1920, are laughing all the way to the bank. At some point we finally just figure you for an absolute fool and move on with our life. Good Luck
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
  • #362
  • Mar 1, 2015 12:51am Mar 1, 2015 12:51am
Quoting dkrock
{quote} About roulette. While the odds of winning are 1/36, 1/37, 1/38 depending on the 00's, and then additional odds for even or odd, black or red, row or column, etc, the number the ball chooses is completely random. There is absolutely no order to roulette. It is entirely random. That number field they use to show you historical data is pure nonsense Forex, on the other hand, is highly predictable. So, there ya go...the difference
I know little about roulette, so little that was expelled twice from Vegas Casinos. The historical numbers they display provide you great advantage. I used to select table where to place my bet, on which number and color glancing at those records. Next time you go there, just watch as many of those displays as you can. If your SAT results always come out really bad, you have quite a high probability of being kicked out from there.................. 98% pay out! my ass.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #363
  • Mar 1, 2015 1:07am Mar 1, 2015 1:07am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} I know little about roulette, so little that was expelled twice from Vegas Casinos. The historical numbers they display provide you great advantage. I used to select table where to place my bet, on which number and color glancing at those records. Next time you go there, just watch as many of those displays as you can. If your SAT results always come out really bad, you have quite a high probability of being kicked out from there.................. 98% pay out! my ass.
Chicky, that display is nonsense. The guy who invented it is genius because it makes you think roulette is predictable and therefore spend your money on it. Believe me again, the number it lands on is completely random!! It is the definition of random! RANDOM!!
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
  • #364
  • Mar 1, 2015 1:40am Mar 1, 2015 1:40am
Quoting dkrock
{quote} Chicky, that display is nonsense. The guy who invented it is genius because it makes you think roulette is predictable and therefore spend your money on it. Believe me again, the number it lands on is completely random!! It is the definition of random! RANDOM!!
You didn't read my post very carefully. I said if your test result is bad. Do the opposite. I can tell you this is not game of luck but game of skill, ...................... not your skill, but croupiers' skills. Nothing can remain straight where money is involved, you can safely bet on that. Always select a crowded table, remain unnoticed as far as you can, bet small, go against the display and the big bets. You will lose while they gain, but you will gain when they lose if you keep your bet inversely proportional to to theirs. It went wrong only once in my life time. I cannot forget that moment when a couple came with very small money and left with a huge sum. I kept on betting against them.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #365
  • Mar 1, 2015 1:48am Mar 1, 2015 1:48am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} You didn't read my post very carefully. I said if your test result is bad. Do the opposite. I can tell you this is not game of luck but game of skill, ...................... not your skill, but croupiers' skills. Nothing can remain straight where money is involved, you can safely bet on that.
Sorry, you confused me. Yes, money does strange things to people's characters.
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
  • #366
  • Mar 1, 2015 1:53am Mar 1, 2015 1:53am
Quoting dkrock
{quote} Sorry, you confused me. Yes, money does strange things to people's characters.
I repeat, next time you go there, check the displays not for the probabilistic outcome but to notice why the fuck all those displays show so much deviation from probability. Not one, not two not three, you will find almost all of them in most casinos at most time. This cannot be a coincidence, even if it is, who cares and why one should?
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #367
  • Mar 1, 2015 2:24am Mar 1, 2015 2:24am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} I repeat, next time you go there, check the displays not for the probabilistic outcome but to notice why the fuck all those displays show so much deviation from probability. Not one, not two not three, you will find almost all of them in most casinos at most time. This cannot be a coincidence, even if it is, who cares and why one should?
This is on-line roulette game. I bet 8 spins starting with $1,000 balance. Here is the result. You will find similar outcomes in many casinos. I don't know if this deviation from probability is because of very small sample, that is, only 8 spins..................... but it works.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled1.jpg Size: 89 KB
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #368
  • Mar 1, 2015 2:25am Mar 1, 2015 2:25am
Quoting replaced
I think I've figured out why so many people lose money in Forex. I think that there are three main factors involved. They would be commissions, leverage, and volatility. The first factor is commissions. If a commission is 0.2, on 10k that's just 20 cents. Not bad, right? Wrong. You'll obviously need to close the trade so that's 0.4 pips roundtrip. Then if leverage is involved, such as 20x. You're paying commissions on 20x your money which means 20x the cost. So that 40 cents roundtrip just turned into 8 dollars per round trip trade, or 0.08% of...
Whatever you want to call it, gambling, trading, speculating... At one one point, your money is at risk.. Only way you will make money trading FOREX is to know how to handle risk. Money management is key to success in trading... You can have the best system, best broker, best spreads, best leverage, best account manager..None of this matters if you do not have good risk/&money management. I know traders who only win 40% of the time and are multi-millionaires trading on 50:1 leverage...and just imagine how big their commissions are...

IMO..(In my Opinion)...a $5000 or even $10,000 acct (TO ME) is completely undercapitalized on 50:1 leverage. your buying power is miniscule compared to $10,000 on 200:1 for example. Now for commissions....All brokers are a little different. However, I do not know any brokers who use leverage in their commissions... Some brokers have the spread/commision mixed in, so they are not separated... But LEVERAGE and COMMISSIONS have ABSOLUTLY NOTHING to do with each other whatsoever. NOTHING. I know alot of brokers..and none of them do that...and if they are...get another broker..because I dont see any transparency at all!
  • #369
  • Mar 1, 2015 2:52am Mar 1, 2015 2:52am
Are you betting 1-18? That is not a single spin of the ball. You are covering 1/2 the table on your bet. Those are odds of winning. The point is...what is the next number going to be? You say 1-18, but that is a range, not a number. What is the number? That is the part that is random.
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
  • #370
  • Mar 1, 2015 2:56am Mar 1, 2015 2:56am
Quoting replaced
{quote} Yes there is evidence that short-term Forex is random. The evidence is that HFT will increase liquidity in the marketplace thereby removing any potential to make money from a pattern or strategy. {quote}
What you are saying here means that the Forex market is not random. It is manipulated, for manipulation is no room in a random process. So you can't base your calculations on randomness. If you do your calculations are not accurate. It is like being inconsistent and expecting consistent results.
  • #371
  • Mar 1, 2015 3:01am Mar 1, 2015 3:01am
Quoting dkrock
Are you betting 1-18? That is not a single spin of the ball. You are covering 1/2 the table on your bet. Those are odds of winning. The point is...what is the next number going to be? You say 1-18, but that is a range, not a number. What is the number? That is the part that is random.
No. I bet only on red or black (whichever is more on the board, if both equal, the color of last spin) and all the displayed numbers.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #372
  • Mar 1, 2015 3:02am Mar 1, 2015 3:02am
Haha ... it's GOOD to see this thread finally discussing what it's really all about. GAMBLING! Not trading.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #373
  • Mar 1, 2015 3:02am Mar 1, 2015 3:02am
Quoting Kong
lol another forex thread that turns into a roulette wheel.
My bad. I thought it was eurusd thread
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #374
  • Mar 1, 2015 3:06am Mar 1, 2015 3:06am
Quoting albchr
Haha ... it's GOOD to see this thread finally discussing what it's really all about. GAMBLING! Not trading.
What's the difference? But please reply is fewer words. Someone tried to explain the difference few pages back. I deserve a degree for reading the full post, it was not a post but the whole syllabus ................. and the guy threatened to write the next post.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #375
  • Mar 1, 2015 3:08am Mar 1, 2015 3:08am
Quoting albchr
Haha ... it's GOOD to see this thread finally discussing what it's really all about. GAMBLING! Not trading.
Wanna bet?
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
  • #376
  • Mar 1, 2015 3:09am Mar 1, 2015 3:09am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} What's the difference? But please reply is fewer words. Someone tried to explain the difference few pages back. I deserve a degree for reading the full post, it was not a post but the whole syllabus ................. and the guy threatened to write the next post.
Hey Chicky, long time since we chatted. Hope all is well.

Short? Ok, ... To some there's a difference, to others there isn't. Close enough? Short enough?
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #377
  • Mar 1, 2015 3:10am Mar 1, 2015 3:10am
Quoting dkrock
{quote} Wanna bet?
What odds you giving?
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #378
  • Mar 1, 2015 3:13am Mar 1, 2015 3:13am
Quoting albchr
{quote} What odds you giving?
Will give you even odds, since that is nearly the same as black and red. But since your is post 380, the spread is +380.
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
  • #379
  • Mar 1, 2015 3:15am Mar 1, 2015 3:15am
Quoting albchr
{quote} Hey Chicky, long time since we chatted. Hope all is well. Short? Ok, ... To some there's a difference, to others there isn't. Close enough? Short enough?
Got it. Gambling is bad, trading is Kosher.

I am getting old. My doctors are surprised how I can live beyond my expiry date. They are unaware of my long term positions on several pairs. Four wives have started shopping black and the Hindu one is buying white dresses. I am going to divorce them all and fire my doctors.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #380
  • Mar 1, 2015 3:16am Mar 1, 2015 3:16am
Quoting dkrock
{quote} Will give you even odds, since that is nearly the same as black and red. But since your is post 380, the spread is +380.
... To rich for my blood. I'm no ... Gambler.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
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