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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #17,861
  • Mar 1, 2015 2:44am Mar 1, 2015 2:44am
USD

If we break last high (which is more likely than not) next target is around 97.00 - 98.00 area.

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  • #17,862
  • Edited 3:02am Mar 1, 2015 2:49am | Edited 3:02am
Regarding EUR/GBP:

Quoting infinitus
{quote} the count is about to get invalidated do not know what I hate more: the round about 2% I will have lost then, or that the count, which worked for a long time, gets invalidated
My mistake, I shouldn't give you green-light with this post while what I thought a bottoming process was at early stage.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...54#post8066354
  • #17,863
  • Mar 1, 2015 3:11am Mar 1, 2015 3:11am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Rule is: near 100 buy near 0 sell chart 1: 11 opportunities 7 OK 2 failed 1 OK, but bad R:R 1 OK but very early with draw down {image} chart 2: 30 opportunities 24 OK 5 failed 1 OK but very early {image} chart 3: 18 opportunities 12 OK 5 failed 1 indecisive {image}
Thanks for your input, looks like aprox 70% rate in general so ye looks usable.
  • #17,864
  • Mar 1, 2015 7:42am Mar 1, 2015 7:42am
Regardin what we discussed on stock markets rigged, let throw another fact in:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...20buybacks.jpg

Aparently some think that surging stock markets reflect "very good economic conditions" in USA. There are hundreds of billions going into stock markets just to keep them where they are, if that money would be removed stocks would crash hard. CBs know that obviously. I was doing some rough calculations how much money is spent on yearly basis by all CBs to keep ponzi on status quo, and numbers were hundreds of billions for equity markets....looks like i was way off. Actual numbers are 10 times that. So we have people still investing in stocks in completly overvalued market where RR is really bad, and on other side its gold in oposite condition. The problem is not by going into stocks in general as investment becouse you follow CB, but the sad thing is when certain traders try to explain good performance on stocks valued by good economic conditions, thats where it all crumbles.
  • #17,865
  • Mar 1, 2015 11:35am Mar 1, 2015 11:35am
Quoting janpec1000
Regardin what we discussed on stock markets rigged, let throw another fact in: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...20buybacks.jpg Aparently some think that surging stock markets reflect "very good economic conditions" in USA. There are hundreds of billions going into stock markets just to keep them where they are, if that money would be removed stocks would crash hard. CBs know that obviously. I was doing some rough calculations how much money is spent on yearly basis...

Hi Jan,

exactly agree. CB's have a history of throwing money away, as well as one can see huge stock buybacks of corporations to the wrong time. This will all end bad.

Regarding the traders who try to explain the surge in stock markets by good economic conditions: I am speechless by this and totally astonished whenever it happens.

Have you seen the Baltic Dry Index or the Velocity of Money lately?
  • #17,866
  • Mar 1, 2015 11:39am Mar 1, 2015 11:39am
Quoting andexQ
Regarding EUR/GBP: {quote} My mistake, I shouldn't give you green-light with this post while what I thought a bottoming process was at early stage. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...54#post8066354

so all is your fault
  • #17,867
  • Mar 1, 2015 12:30pm Mar 1, 2015 12:30pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
"Spectacular Developments" In Austria: Bail-In Arrives After €7.6 Billion Bad Bank Capital Hole "Discovered"
  • #17,868
  • Mar 1, 2015 3:09pm Mar 1, 2015 3:09pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Jan, exactly agree. CB's have a history of throwing money away, as well as one can see huge stock buybacks of corporations to the wrong time. This will all end bad. Regarding the traders who try to explain the surge in stock markets by good economic conditions: I am speechless by this and totally astonished whenever it happens. Have you seen the Baltic Dry Index or the Velocity of Money lately?
Yes. But i wonder how they are explaining its poor performance. Probably with some typical Keynesian counter-argument procedure which i am not aware of.
  • #17,869
  • Mar 1, 2015 3:10pm Mar 1, 2015 3:10pm
Quoting andexQ
Regarding EUR/GBP: {quote} My mistake, I shouldn't give you green-light with this post while what I thought a bottoming process was at early stage. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...54#post8066354
What gave you reason to see bottoming? There was nothing in PA so you must have been looking at something else i guess.
  • #17,870
  • Mar 1, 2015 5:00pm Mar 1, 2015 5:00pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} What gave you reason to see bottoming? There was nothing in PA so you must have been looking at something else i guess.
Weekly candle + RSI on that chart..

You are right, there is no way to conclude a bottom base on a single candle and without confirmation.
  • #17,871
  • Mar 1, 2015 5:47pm Mar 1, 2015 5:47pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
World's Largest Container-Shipper Warns Global Trade Is Slowing Down
  • #17,872
  • Mar 1, 2015 6:12pm Mar 1, 2015 6:12pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
This Is The Chinese Documentary That Got Over 30 Million Views In One Day
  • #17,873
  • Edited 5:48am Mar 2, 2015 4:14am | Edited 5:48am
Looking for shorts on those two levels EG/EU 240:
http://prntscr.com/6bp7ay

EDIT: Entered lower one.
  • #17,874
  • Mar 2, 2015 6:24am Mar 2, 2015 6:24am
EU 4h TF

look at fibs
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  • #17,875
  • Mar 2, 2015 1:02pm Mar 2, 2015 1:02pm
Uuuuuups,

Sentiment index: on 27th only 9% of EURUSD bulls once again left
  • #17,876
  • Mar 2, 2015 1:25pm Mar 2, 2015 1:25pm
Hi infinitus , may I ask something...

Do you ever include "time" in your analysis? As far as I know EW theory includes "time" in itself, but I know nothing more than the fact that it includes "time". So based on yuour experience , do you think there are resistences of time which trigger explosive trends? In other words, have you ever found any kind of relation between the times of [consolidation duration] and [the trend duration] .

Evaluating the price as (x,y) coordinates must have some advantages when compared with evaluating it just in terms of (y) ...

Again,as i know it is an ancient method to make predicitions of time through the usage of square numbers , which Gann also used... I have really spent lots of time on the charts trying to find at least some kind of relationship between the durations of the trends and the duration of the retracements/colsolidation. But I can say I have a giant "0" ...

Assuming and knowing that Elliot stated that the market moves in cycles , does he have "detailed" statements about "time" ???

I also want to share this here too :

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Regards...
Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #17,877
  • Mar 2, 2015 2:22pm Mar 2, 2015 2:22pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
NYC Residents Pay $2-3,000 A Month For “Micro-Apartments” As Luxury Car Sales Outpace Regular Car Sales
  • #17,878
  • Mar 2, 2015 2:32pm Mar 2, 2015 2:32pm
Quoting selym_co
Hi infinitus , may I ask something... Do you ever include "time" in your analysis? As far as I know EW theory includes "time" in itself, but I know nothing more than the fact that it includes "time". So based on yuour experience , do you think there are resistences of time which trigger explosive trends? In other words, have you ever found any kind of relation between the times of [consolidation duration] and [the trend duration] . Evaluating the price as (x,y) coordinates must have some advantages when compared with evaluating it just in terms...

Hi Selym,

great questions :-)


Prechter once wrote, when I remember correctly, that it is hard to find good fib-time relationships in the waves. In my early days of EW I tried it out and thought it to be useless.

The Murrey Math (the way Murrey tought it) involved time. Our FF member Godim, who spent time once in this thread, and I enjoyed it very much, is very good at Gann. Sometimes he showed charts with Gann lines etc. and often enough it was interesting how price met these with round about the right time "forecast".

Maybe you like to contact him and you both have a nice chat :-)

Then there is another member here, Sixer, who tries to combine EW with cycle analysis. Maybe he can offer you something. He is a nice guy, too.


Prechter somewhere told, that time is not so much important than price.


All in all I think I am not of much help when it comes to time :-(


Best to you
  • #17,879
  • Mar 2, 2015 2:39pm Mar 2, 2015 2:39pm
Quoting selym_co
Hi infinitus , may I ask something... Do you ever include "time" in your analysis? As far as I know EW theory includes "time" in itself, but I know nothing more than the fact that it includes "time". So based on yuour experience , do you think there are resistences of time which trigger explosive trends? In other words, have you ever found any kind of relation between the times of [consolidation duration] and [the trend duration] . Evaluating the price as (x,y) coordinates must have some advantages when compared with evaluating it just in terms...


regarding your snipsets:


very true and it is simple as the following:


when we can agree, that we can see Elliott Waves in the markets, we can only come to the conclusion, that the waves (price) is not a reflection of economic news. Because would the waves (price) follow economic news, and at the same time trace out the Elliott Waves, then we only could conclude, that we would live in a deterministic world. Because all the economic news, or better said the underlying economy, must be totally orchestrated on a world wide level, in order to make the price match the waves.
  • #17,880
  • Mar 2, 2015 3:20pm Mar 2, 2015 3:20pm
well... thanks for your answer ... I also have seen Godim's posts his screenshots look really cool

I shall upload a PDF file ...just a min:

http://s4.dosya.tc/server/gFzmlx/Sac...metry.pdf.html

Leanardo da Vinci categorized people in three groups :

 

  1. People who see things
  2. People who see things when they are shown
  3. People who do not see

Some intelligent people in the past assumed that wat we see/feel/hear/touch,.... are just accumulated energies with different frequencies. In ancient times philosophers told that it was essential to first understand "music" in order to understand the unicers. But the word "music" in that statement was used for "frequencies". And they studied geometry just to measure the behavious of frequencies. Because they had noticed that (I do not know how they did it at those days) wat we call as "matter" nowadays strictly respects to the frequencies. In other words the whole universe is dominated by frequencies.

When we look from that perspective things becometo be meaningful. Some time ago ı had read a small article about NASA's foundings about the music of the planets in the space. the article was about diffferent musical frequencies being broadcasted by the planets in the space. there is always some kind of ambiance which carries the vibrations or the frequencies. Its like a power which can be stopped by anything. Not only the planets, even we,human beaings have our own music. Maybe thats how we communicate with people when they are far away. Anyway, I guess Gann based his perspective on such stuff (still i am at the phase of learning) and he tried to apply the basic geometric shapes to the market in order to measure the music of the market, which is a kind of frequency too, the vibrations created by the human psychology. At this point I get stuck, and cannot progress further ...

So it again comes to geometry ...

I feel as if i am on the right way, but there is something missing

The keywords dancing and dancing in my mind .... cycles,vibrations,music,geometry,ratio,fibonacci,.... and confusion !!!

When it comes to trading, "time" is just luxury... But still charming ...

Never mind ... the above written things are mostly my inner monologues...good night

Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
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