I've figured out why so many people lose money in Forex

Give a guy $1000 with 1:500 leverage. Blows account
Give a guy $1000 with 1:50 (or less). Blows account.

Conclusion...

Hey Replaced,

Are there studies/evidence that the Forex market can be compared with Roulette or Coin-tosses? Or maybe even that the Forex market is random? If so, I would be glad if you provide links and stuff. Thank you!

Correct. I spent about 2 months (if I recall corectly) on demo. It didn't work for me. It wasn't real. So I started learning with a real money. Not thousands, but money I could afford to lose.

My philosopy is different. If you know what you are doing, then you can start with the lunch money. If you don't know what you are doing, then the sum of capital doesn't matter. You are going to lose. My last 5 accounts were in range 500-2500% gain. Before account dies I already get deposit and more out. I call this a progress as I always learn something new. Pardon me, I was not born with the knowledge, I am still learning.

Because I change brokers as some are shit and you don't know anything when you start trading. Second reason is that I learn something new every time account dies so its only fair to use custom start date when you change trading methodology or develop tools that will help you trade (I am doing this part time, I have full time round the clock job so I can not be next to the screen when I want to)

You are missing the point and your comparison is not in place. You CAN learn market behaviour. If this would not be tue then every next account would not survive longer and would not gain more then previous one. If this would be pure gambling there would be spikes all over the history line, not steady continuous improvement.

So I guess in order to prove you are wrong I need to ... what? Earn 1M from 18 USD? What sum would satisfy you? Is there a sum that would satisfy you?

You don't have to satisfy him. He has to prove that the Forex market is random. His theory stands or falls by randomness.

A proper suite of indicators can make it much easier to put price action into a context for the trader to make good choices.

Hello Palabara,
I have been away from the computer this weekend. I did however, take the time to read what you have posted, and you are indeed correct. I would like to apologize to you and others for being instant to what "Leverage" is. Especially the fact that if you pick say 1000:1 to leverage, that even if you use a .01 lot size you are still indeed using 1000:1 leverage as compared to 1:1.... So compared to 1:1 leverage which would require say 100,000usd if you use 1000:1 leverage then you would be using 1000x less of your own margin to open the very same lot size.

Yes there is evidence that short-term Forex is random. The evidence is that HFT will increase liquidity in the marketplace thereby removing any potential to make money from a pattern or strategy.


No, I believe that you're just wasting your time. Why would you remove the deposit instead of decreasing leverage? After all of these years, you still can't afford to lose thousands? How do you know if your successful unless you lay out how much you've gained/lost so far?

You still haven't learned anything if you're going to keep on losing money hand over fist. If you do ever make money, it's because you got lucky and not because you've learned anything. You need at least 3000+ trades to see if a trading strategy works, instead you're only showing a tiny window of your trades but not showing the entire picture. How many trading strategies have you gone through already?

Getting lucky at a slot machine doesn't mean anything. All you did was press the button and you finally won a hundred bucks after thousands in loses. What's the point in trading with 18 USD? Is that what you have left in your life savings? Why don't you get a job and double it by working 1 day? That's far better than spending hours staring at a computer screen to maybe double it if you're very lucky.

What's the TOTAL amount of money gained or lost? Every single account ever opened.

"A proper suite of indicators can make it much easier to put price action into a context for the trader to make good choices."

Perhaps,jmn,perhaps. Personally I don't use indys, and am of the opinion too many traders use them as a crutch instead of learning to read PA.

Typing from my phone. New episode of black sails is on lol. Don't need to apologize people make mistakes and it's a learning process. It took me a lot of trial and error to gain knowledge. So you've learned and now understand and that's what's important.

I'll tell you what, replaced. This week I will put up an explorer and start with $50. Now keep in mind, that is only a small % of my forex 'roll". So if I blow it, it's OK. Which is exactly the point I'm trying to make, risk is risk, leverage is leverage, they are two completely different things. So I will be trading with 100;1 leverage, while risking approximately 0.5% of my forex funds. How much do I need to compound that $50 into to get you to understand this is not roulette or coin flipping. How quickly would you like it to be done? I normally don't trade on Monday, so we'll start Tuesday.

I liked your points but i don't agree with it i tried many ways in about 13 year .in one account i traded 40 lot after i lost in a 10 lot trade and i made up the loss
when you are sure of the direction just leave some money for a suitable stop loss some times i had stop loss with one point
this market and trading in general is a treasure for me after i found that points and confirmed them with live trading .
but some times banks do move or delay there entry and they know your money is on table so if yo pick a certain point with suitable margin you can get away with it .that's why stp , ecn are better in trading not like market maker who will not expose there self to a winner .
i believe in (there is no impossible under the sun).so just create a system and trade with a broker that enjoy your commissions more that liquidity provider commissions and offers .
you know what i do i trade many times for a one trade so i enter and exist then enter again to raise my broker profit .
with 25$ per lot i don't think it is fear .so for every dollar i earn he get 4 cent about 4% of my profit .if i have an honest broker i would share with him more than that like 20 - 30% of my profit .
so actually take this thoughts out from your mind just a system with stop-loss (proper money management and trade any leverage you like
all have a nice day

just the time it takes differs but if you have a good analysis skill you will for sure make money what ever leverage you use
all have a nice day

Why would I want to decrease leverage? Deposit was removed as I am aware that I risk a lot and my strategy is not perfect and I can't be in front of computer all the time. I am not interested at this point in 100% profit in 100 trades, but I am very happy with 1000% profit in 100 trades. Should I ever have more money, I will use more sound Money Management. But at this point I decided to risk more.

Nope, I don't have thousands. I have to take care for my family and I simply don't have it.

Irelevent as I am still in the learning process. You can not posibly compare success at the start of the traders path where he does not know anything and after several years.

Well this is what I have been asking you all along. How many trades do I have to take to prove that forex is not random. Now you said 3000+ OK Please also state what kind of profit would satisfy you (based on 18 USD deposit and 3000 trades).

I sincerely don't know, but for the last year or so I have been working on my own strategy. It is getting more and more refined, the problem is I don't stick to my own rules. Most of the time Money management kills me as I oppen 10 or 20 times the position that I actually plan. I am trying to make a change in psychology.

No, that is incorect. This would be true if I would have 1 win. As you can see from the chart, there were 70 trades, about 81% win and curve geting up. This you can NOT do with the slot machine.

You don't have to be mean. I explained my philosophy. If you know how to trade then you can start with extremly low capital. If you don't know how to trade then not even extremly big capital will help you. I was talking once with the guy that blew 400k account in about 3 months.

That is irelevent, I consider it a tuition. I'll get back to you in 3000 trades. And how much profit would satisfy you?

There is a saying. I don't know it, but there is one lol.. Has to do with you shouldn't do something to prove it to someone else.. Trading is done for someone to earn money, that's what I do it for.. Do I need to prove to someone that this is what I do on a daily basis? well that and homework, and get beaten by my 2 year old, and the rest of the days where just morphs into one big blur, but more to the point.. It seems that Trading is where "egos" come to play, because in no other job do you have to "prove" anything you go to work, you do your job you come home, and you eat poop have sex go to sleep yadayayda but in Forex it seems its all about, I got to PROVE something to someone, because? Why? I don't have anything to prove, you don't like it/believe it I don't give a flying rats ass.. Should you give a flying rats ass? You when trading is "perfect" when its so boring and mundane that a job at MacDonalds seems exciting! That it has become so mechanical so uninteresting that its PERFECT. because when you reach that level of uninterest, nothing matters. Your like, I just DON'T CARE!

So I say to you. Do you care? what others think, do you feel your ego has to prove something to someone online because they feel that they need to say that forex is gambling, FINE Forex is Gambling, and guess what I am a freaking super awesome gambler, hell I'll keep gambling til I turn to ash F*** YEAH BABY! LMAO! I LOVE GAMBLING AND FOREX IS GAMBLING SO I LOVE IT I LOVE IT I LOVE IT I LOVE IT. You want to say Forex is something else FINE as long as its Forex. I LOVE IT!

This has been like taming a wild tiger, but once you tame it. You laugh at the journey! All the times you got bit and clawed just seems like funny stuff not so much when it happened. Now its one big joke, and I don't care what people think.. because I know I've fought the battle and won the war! If someone still cares means they are still fighting, and have a LOT to prove!

This is how to win an unwinable argument you agree with its faulty logic and surrender and say FINE your right, I am wrong. but, you know what I'm still making money, and I am still happy as pig in shit, so I don't care. Whatever

I dare anyone who feels like they are happy with Forex to rise up and say they are happy with forex, Just SCREAM IT. FOREX IS A HARD B*** BUT WE LOVE IT!

Great post. F*** the explorer, replaced. I don't have anything to prove. As was mentioned earlier, burden of proof is on you to show how forex is even remotely related to your examples of roulette, coin flipping, etc. Hell, earlier in the week, I had to inform you that black does not pay 2 to 1, so you don't even know roulette.

I think I've figured it out. I haven't seen a post from Maple Leaf in quite a while. maybe with a little investigation, we can reveal replaced and Maple Leaf as one and the same.

Here you go everyone:

Forex and сasino: what is the difference?
There are many articles on the internet in which working on Forex is compared to gambling in casino, and in particular, to the roulette. The authors of these articles bring out different proves, citing mathematical extracts from the theory of probability, often even not realizing their meaning. In this chapter we will try to destroy the myth of Forex belonging to gambling games.
A roulette game is as old as time. It can be easily considered as one of the genius inventions of the mankind. The roulette structure and its rules are very simple. But behind the visible simplicity of winning, the mathematical laws which bring milliards of dollars profit annually to gaming establishments are covered, making millions of luck hunters bankrupts every year. Let us try to understand the roulette mechanism and realize why it is not possible to get a stable income playing it.
In the theory of probability, there are two fundamental notions: event and probability of the event’s occurrence. Anything can be understood as an event. A sunny day after a number of cloudy ones, a strike of workers at the factory, a casual meeting with an old friend in the street, an accident on the road, a flight cancellation due to aircraft maintenance - all these events can happen with a certain probability.
Among great number of events, there are those, which can occur simultaneously (then we talk about acomplex event), and those, which are mutually exclusive and can never happen at one and the same moment. For example, you can go out and meet your old friend not far from the factory where a strike of workers takes place on a bright sunny day. In this example, three events happened at one time. But such events as a rainy and a sunny day are mutually exclusive and can never happen at the same time. It is easy to understand that a probability of the occurrence of a complex event is lesser, than of a single event, which is included in a complex one. As for the occurrence of a complex event, a number of factors should happen together. Let us consider another classical example - dice throwing. A dice has six cube faces. On each side there is a number marked in pips (from 1 to 6). The number to appear is an event. Only one number can show up at a time. Thus, there are only six scenarios of the event in the example with the dice, and all of them exclude one another.
It is vivid, that when we are throwing the dice, one number always comes out. It means, the probability that a particular number will appear, can be considered as 1, or 100%. What is the probability of a certain number occurrence, for example, 1 or 5? Are these probabilities equal? We will try to sort it out.
In the theory of probability, there is a notion of frequency distribution. It represents a function of the probability of occurrence of the event from the event itself. We will not go into details and will just say, that a number appearance on a dice has a random probability distribution, that is, the probability of any number outcome is equal. This happens because a dice cube has a regular shape and a uniform density. Thus, as there are only 6 numbers on a cube, a probability of a certain number occurrence equals to 100 / 6 = 16.6666…%.
The following important step in mastering a theory of probability is the law of large numbers. In our example with the dice the point is that if we throw the dice many times, every single number will appearproportionally to the probability of the occurrence of its event. And, as all six numbers have the same probability of occurrence, every number comes out for the equal number of times. Besides, the more times a dice is thrown, the lesser the measure of inaccuracy of this statement is. The inaccuracy tends to zero with a quantity of throws verging to infinity. It comes out, that if we throw the dice for 1,000,000 times, every number will shows up approximately 166,667 times with a certain inaccuracy.
What if the frequency distribution is not equal? Suppose that we have covered one cube face with lead, having changed its density distribution. The probability of number 1 appearance is now equal to 50%, and the probability of the occurrence of the five numbers left has remained equal to 12.5%. Now, if we throw the dice for 1,000,000 times, number 1 will come out for about 500,000 times and other numbers will come out for about 125,000 each. Let us go back to the roulette game. There are 37 cells on a table field: numbers from 1 to 36 and a zero. The frequency distribution of a number appearance in a roulette game, like in the situation with the dice, is equal. That means that the probability of the showing up of a single number in the roulette is equal and amounts to 1/37. The gain which is paid to the winner by the casino totals 1:36. Thus, for every ruble bet, with a probability of 1/37, we will get 36 rubles. In accordance with the law of large numbers, if we play the roulette game for X times, and if every time we bet 1 ruble on one number, our profit will be:
36/37 * X – X =
X * (36/37 – 1) =
–1/37 * X
You have understood everything correctly; the minus in the received formula denotes the loss and the gain in the casino. It does not matter on what numbers you will bet, the formula does not change. The more the value of X is, the less the measure of the formula's inaccuracy is. When the value of X is small, the inaccuracy can be significant, thus, if you came to a casino, made a few bets, then won, went away and never came back, the casino sustained losses from you. But having won once, hardly anyone can stop; the roulette game becomes a lifestyle. A person comes back with a hope of winning again and starts playing constantly. The number of played games increases, the inaccuracy of the formula lowers and, in the end, the person loses. Even if a certain person will never come back after a big win, other people, hunting for luck, will try their hand, and gambling business will profit.
There is one more comment. According to the formula, having played 1,000 games betting 1 ruble, the player loses only 1/37 part, that is, around 27 rubles. Thus, it is possible to stay on the float, getting pleasure form the game. In real life, hardly anyone bets 1 ruble in a roulette game, a person is wrecked by his own hazard. Making high-risky bets, one faces the situation when he has not enough funds to recoup. And this leads to bankruptcy - absence of funds for further after-game. If all the players were billionaires, they could have been playing for a long time, losing only 1/37 of their bets. 1/37 is approximately 2.73%. This is the advantage of a casino over a player. In American variant of the roulette (unlike in the European) there are two zeros on the table field (0 and 00). In such circumstances casino's benefit is 2/38, almost 5.26%, which stiffens the conditions of the game even more.
Of course, it is possible to stake not only on one number in the roulette, but also on 2 or 4 or the whole sequence of numbers at the same time. However, such strategy lowers the possibility of winning proportionally, i.e. the formula remains the same. A casino is always winning, and its anticipated profit can be calculated mathematically. With the European roulette it is equal to 2.73% from all bets of all players, in American roulette it is 5.26%. For other games, there are also formulas of the probability calculation, and correspondingly, the expected profit of a gambling house. The real profit of the casino differs from the expected, as people simply have no funds for recoupment, because they are gambling everything away.
That is why it is impossible to get a steady income at the casino. But on Forex the situation is completely different. Here, we also have events (increase or fall of the currency rate) and the probability of its occurrence. But the distribution of these probabilities is irregular, and a strict mathematical formula cannot be developed. Moreover, these probabilities can be forecasted, and if the instruments, such as technical and fundamental analyses, are used properly, it is possible to get a regular income.
We will discuss why the currency rates behaviour, chaotic at first sight, can be forecasted in other parts of the website. Now we will just say, that the currency rates movement is caused by people (brokers, dealers, traders). If the majority of them are buying currency (bullish sentiment dominates), the rate is increasing. If the majority of them are selling (or the bearish trend prevails), the rate is falling down. If you can determine the tendency of the market timely and be with the majority, you will get a steady profit. As many Forex traders use similar instrument for analysis, all one needs to do is to follow the majority. Here we should make a little remark. The majority on Forex in this situation is determined not by the number of traders, but by the volume of the operations conducted by them. Significant transactions on currency market are made only by experienced traders - the dealers of big investment companies, investment funds, and banks. They are people with special education, rich experience, and high level of knowledge. In order to trade successfully on Forex, you should imitate the behaviour pattern of these people on the currency market, which is impossible without proper education.
That is why, before start working on Forex, it is necessary to study this market thoroughly, as well as the instruments which are used by professionals for the forecast of its behaviour. This is the only possible way to success!
Thus, you see that Forex has little in common with a roulette game. Keep reading the information on the website, and you will learn much, which means, that in course of time you will get steady income on Forex. The amount of this income will depend exceptionally on you! Your success is entirely in your hands!

You are right, it pays even money and so does the red, but it doesn't mean a small mistake of expression nullifies someone's knowledge............. by the way, there is also a Double Zero (00) also green in American roulette. This doesn't mean you know nothing about roulette

Its not like most people lose only in forex. Most people fail in everything. Its because most people are morons, simple as that. This planet is full of morons, nothing more nothing less.

There is a wide difference between an stupid and a moron. Let me explain:

1. There is a normal person
2. There is a stupid person
3. There is a normal person but understood as a stupid person
4. There is a stupid person also understood as a stupid person
5. There is a stupid person but understood as a normal person

(Let's keep the smarts away from this discussion)

You tell me which of the above 1 through 5 is a moron?
Correct, both number 3 and 4 are morons. A stupid if considered stupid becomes a moron so does a normal person if considered stupid.

Technically, you will be right if you replace the words "moron" and "morons" in your statement with word "stupid". If you consider them stupid, they would automatically become morons but if you use the word moron for them, they don't become morons or stupid for that matter.