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I've figured out why so many people lose money in Forex

  • #141
  • Feb 25, 2015 4:56pm Feb 25, 2015 4:56pm
Quoting albchr
I think that's a point a lot of folks miss palabara. You can't really adjust yourself to trading. You have to adjust your trading to yourself. At least, it's MUCH easier that way in my humble opinion. I also think some are confused by the "why haven't you made millions yet" question. Do they neglect to account for withdrawals to "live" on? .. Nice 3D art by the way!
The where are your millions question discounts all kinds of things. For starters, and especially now, brokers are going to push back on unlimited scaling up. So all those spreadsheets mean very little because after you pass a certain size, they are going to want to know if you can afford the risk. As you mentioned, there will be expenses for you to live on, and taxes to pay. Good risk management also precludes becoming a gadzillionaire quickly. Just so many things to go wrong.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #142
  • Feb 25, 2015 5:11pm Feb 25, 2015 5:11pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} The where are your millions question discounts all kinds of things. For starters, and especially now, brokers are going to push back on unlimited scaling up. So all those spreadsheets mean very little because after you pass a certain size, they are going to want to know if you can afford the risk. As you mentioned, there will be expenses for you to live on, and taxes to pay. Good risk management also precludes becoming a gadzillionaire quickly. Just so many things to go wrong.
This is true. Also, (and this just my personal preference), but I wouldn't leave large sums of money with a br0ker anyway. No telling what might happen. Just look at the SNB deal and how many were badly effected. Both br0kers and traders.

For easy numbers sake ... Say I had 10k to trade with. I'd only place enough in the account to cover the margin needed to trade my % risk with. This where the "proper" use of the leverage tool comes in handy. If I only need $500 in margin to cover the % risk I'm comfortable with on the 10k, that's all I'd have in the account. I would still trade my % risk based on the 10K I have, but $9500 of it would be safe with me. Should the br0ker go belly up I only risk loosing the $500 +/- what I've made. Just another form of risk management.

Once you're big enough you can probably not worry so much as you'll likely be with a well established solid br0ker. But for the average everyday retailer just starting out, we all know what the br0kers can be like at that level.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #143
  • Feb 25, 2015 5:29pm Feb 25, 2015 5:29pm
Man I feel so bad for saying this but... HEY guys, don't listen to replaced and do the exact opposite of what he says. Keep believing in your hopes and dreams, be masters of your emotions and one day you will all be forex billionaires!
  • #144
  • Feb 25, 2015 5:44pm Feb 25, 2015 5:44pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} This is true. Also, (and this just my personal preference), but I wouldn't leave large sums of money with a br0ker anyway. No telling what might happen. Just look at the SNB deal and how many were badly effected. Both br0kers and traders. For easy numbers sake ... Say I had 10k to trade with. I'd only place enough in the account to cover the margin needed to trade my % risk with. This where the "proper" use of the leverage tool comes in handy. If I only need $500 in margin to cover the % risk I'm comfortable with on the 10k, that's all I'd...
In my case, I have been with Oanda since 2006, and they did quite well with the CHF situation. Probably the best of all US brokers. So I feel comfortable with my money with them. I already do what you do, just in a sub account. For me, it helps me keep my position sizing in line. For example, this week I am having a time of it with the E/U because the ranges have collapsed. I am getting 3 pips a trade or so because my BE stops keep getting hit, and there is no trend long enough to stack. A downside with a MM like Oanda is that their spreads dictate what timeframe you trade a pair on. So if you trade less than H4, you can only trade the majors. G/N, E/A and those other volatile crosses is H4 and up. USD/MXN would be W1 or MN. They just put a clamp on all CHF pairs because of the FCA. And you can't trade metals here in the US anymore either. So that is a bit of a pain. But I digress.

I think replaced is one of those academics types.

He thinks that working at mission control in Houston is the same as being an astronaut.

I like people like him, and MapleLeaf, and Mingary, because they give us a scratching post, if you will. ( for those who do not own cats, they have to keep their claws sharp, so they will use a scratching post, or a piece of your furniture, to do that.) You can spot a non trader from a mile away. They have no market sense, and think only in metrics, and not what humans are likely to do.

I hope replaced gets it together and comes back into the fray. I enjoy people like him.

Eat what you kill.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #145
  • Feb 25, 2015 6:09pm Feb 25, 2015 6:09pm
My Friend just opened up a $2000.00 account for me to trade just 9 days ago, we are up $ 396.00 in 9 days or 20%, who is losing money and why?
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #146
  • Feb 25, 2015 6:13pm Feb 25, 2015 6:13pm
Quoting forexalien
My Friend just opened up a $2000.00 account for me to trade just 9 days ago, we are up $ 396.00 in 9 days or 20%, who is losing money and why?
Come back in 9 months. :-)
  • #147
  • Feb 25, 2015 6:14pm Feb 25, 2015 6:14pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} In my case, I have been with Oanda since 2006, and they did quite well with the CHF situation. Probably the best of all US brokers. So I feel comfortable with my money with them. I already do what you do, just in a sub account. For me, it helps me keep my position sizing in line. For example, this week I am having a time of it with the E/U because the ranges have collapsed. I am getting 3 pips a trade or so because my BE stops keep getting hit, and there is no trend long enough to stack. A downside with a MM like Oanda is that their spreads...
I had no problems with IBFX. My first and only from day one. Then FXBS took them over and it was nothing but non stop problems. Then they went belly up over SNB. They were among the very first scratched off my list in the beginning. Imagine that.

I've had several cats.

For me it's not a matter of like or dislike with folks. Just a matter of available time. I don't have much so I don't waste it (for the most part ) talking in circles with folks. Got a valid point or a new concept that makes sense in the market? I'm all ears. And as you well know my friend, all blabber board too ... lol

If you don't? Like you said, a mile away.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #148
  • Feb 25, 2015 6:19pm Feb 25, 2015 6:19pm
Quoting EnoFX
{quote} Come back in 9 months. :-)
Ouch. So you lost it all in 9 months?
  • #149
  • Feb 25, 2015 6:48pm Feb 25, 2015 6:48pm
Quoting EnoFX
{quote} Come back in 9 months. :-)
I have been doing this for 7 years now
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #150
  • Edited 3:30am Feb 26, 2015 3:16am | Edited 3:30am
Quoting albchr
{quote} This is true. Also, (and this just my personal preference), but I wouldn't leave large sums of money with a br0ker anyway. No telling what might happen. Just look at the SNB deal and how many were badly effected.
I think the bigger risk is losing money due to trading and not brokers going out of business. What's your total amount gained/lost (including every single account opened up). Have you kept track of that? Maybe you should check. Why would you bring up $500 anyways? Seems like a really small amount to trade with after all of these years. Especially since you claim to be so successful at Forex.


Quoting forexalien
My Friend just opened up a $2000.00 account for me to trade just 9 days ago, we are up $ 396.00 in 9 days or 20%, who is losing money and why?
I would definitely not do that. What are you going to do if you lose all of your friend's money? Being up 20% in 9 days means that you're gambling and you could've lost 20% just as easily. It's important to remember that the certainty of loses doesn't usually happen until 500-1000 trades for a highly leveraged account. What happened to your other accounts? There is literally no difference between your friend giving you money to play a few hands of BJ at a casino and what you're doing now.

Quoting morimpre
We managed just over 1.8% for the day today and use 500:1 leverage and are in positions for approx. 20 minutes on average and we are active scalpers. ...
My calculator shows that it's very likely that you'll have gain from time to time, but in the long run (1000+ trades) the trend is downhill. Anecdotes are something you don't want to rely on for proof of something. Just because someone won on a roulette spin, doesn't mean that they'll continue to win in the future. This is literally basic stuff why am I even needing to explain this? Also I've notice that most trades are only a few pips, that's a sure way to lose since all of your money is going towards trading costs.

Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I am getting 3 pips a trade or so because my BE stops keep getting hit, and there is no trend long enough to stack. A downside with a MM like Oanda is that their spreads dictate what timeframe you trade a pair on.
...
You can spot a non trader from a mile away. They have no market sense, and think only in metrics, and not what humans are likely to do. I hope replaced gets it together and comes back into the fray. I enjoy people like him. Eat what you kill.
I'm a trader that's learned something and do have money invested in equities right now.
  • #151
  • Feb 26, 2015 4:19am Feb 26, 2015 4:19am
Quoting replaced
{quote} It's important to remember that the certainty of loses doesn't usually happen until 500-1000 trades for a highly leveraged account..
Wait a minute, didn't you say about 100 trades are enough to empty such high leverage account? Sure you did:

Quote
I don't know since you've omitted the volatility of the trades. The higher the volatility per trade, the faster the account will bust. However an account making 400x equity positions shouldn't last longer than 100 roundtrip trades in most cases.
  • #152
  • Feb 26, 2015 4:35am Feb 26, 2015 4:35am
Can someone change the title of this thread to 'I've figured out why I lose money in Forex'
  • #153
  • Feb 26, 2015 4:46am Feb 26, 2015 4:46am
Quoting replaced
{quote} I think the bigger risk is losing money due to trading and not brokers going out of business. What's your total amount gained/lost (including every single account opened up). Have you kept track of that? Maybe you should check. Why would you bring up $500 anyways? Seems like a really small amount to trade with after all of these years. Especially since you claim to be so successful at Forex.
.. Ok, Since apparently you're not very good at reading "prior" posts (even in this thread alone), I'll entertain you for one last one.

First, I've only had ONE live account since I started learning. I've never blown that account. It was taken over by a broker I didn't like and scratched off my list in the beginning. After nothing but problems with them and When they went belly up, I got my funds back and transferred them to another new account which is my current one.

Again, since you can't actually READ AND UNDERSTAND prior posts, the 10k and 500 was an example for the point I was making. Do you get it now? :nerd:

Lastly, what you "think" is irrelevant. At least to any real trader here.

Now, like the rest of us real traders here, show us your trades, live and in real time from start to finish or please, go back to whatever kiddy land you came from. Facebook or the like I presume?

Quote me and/or doubt me all you like. This will be my last reply to you. Done here.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #154
  • Feb 26, 2015 4:47am Feb 26, 2015 4:47am
Quoting Baltimore
Can someone change the title of this thread to 'I've figured out why I lose money in Forex'
... That would make a nice request for Twee.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #155
  • Feb 26, 2015 5:53am Feb 26, 2015 5:53am
Quoting palabara
...Just want to quickly emphasizes about the "relaxed" being a relaxed forex trader is extremely important!...
Great posts palabara, traders tends to focus on stats, system, charts, numbers yet they overlook the most important aspect. Themself! And if they can't handle themselves, their emotions, if they can't stay on top no matter what happens around them..they won't see it comming and they'll get their a** handed.

There are people who are more naturally able to do that unconsciously like professional poker players etc and they might argue it's about knowing their odds etc..yet if it's just that, what stops others from just cracking them numbers and make a great living as poker player? Knowing ones odds includes knowing when to hold and when to fold, knowing your inner odds for you might just have a bad day or something else clouds your clarity..and that inludes this rather indescribable nudge, gut feeling. You don't know how do you know..but you just know.

That's why it's challenging to mimick succesfull traders for it's about learning what works for an individual and also what doesn't work so one stays on top of the game no matter what. And bounces back quickly enough even if thrown out of balance, because life happens, at times even "shit" happens as some would say. That's ok, no big deal. Knowing one can handle ones emotions and with risking money there's a lot of them, for what can you do without a coin in todays society? You can cut the size, you can do whatever but that just makes the emotions less vissible..and they'll just lurk there anyway and wait for their opportunity. And you can bet that something will trigger them. Might not be trading related yet you can bet that it will come up for it wants you to learn how to handle them. And call me crazy or whatever, that's ok, that's just your point of view.

So, traders..do you have something that triggers you? Might not be trading related..but that's just your emotional baggage that just asks to be experienced & accepted. It's a challenging yet very rewarding journey and it will make your life and trading easier and more fun. Maybe you think you are already relaxed trader. Maybe you are, but you can always be more relaxed & better. That's just the way it is.

And how to handle those emotions when they arrise and tries to cloud our thinking & decision making process? Take a pause, focus on your breath and just breath and breath and breath. Fear, stress impacts our body, cuts the flow and basicaly prepares for battle or retreat and the brain doesn't have enough oxygen. (there's no time to think in life/death situation). You might think trading is not a life/death situation..but then just become aware of you energy. Are you relaxed when you trade? Are you relaxed whenever you think about money/wealth? Or are you rather contracted? Hmm? There's where breathing helps greatly, breath = oxygen, basically telling the body that there's no reason to fight/flight that it can relax. And it will. And once you are relaxed enough..you have more clarity, you make better decisions and you take better actions.

So I invite you all to just remember to check themselves throughout the trading day, are you relaxed or rather not?
If you aren't, breath yourself back into relaxed state. That way you get into flow of what is, the zone as some put it.
And there's where you wanna be as a succesfull trader.

Anything else be it numbers, stats, charts, system..just stays on top of that. And you want to build your trading on solid ground. And that's all about you, not the outside world. Maybe that's why the numbers of succesfull vs loosing traders are so sad. The majority of people focuses on wrong thing. So you wanna succeed/stay succesfull? Focus on what matters, focus on what makes the succesfull ones succesfull, what keeps them in the game.
Markets wispers, just tune in.
  • #156
  • Feb 26, 2015 6:51am Feb 26, 2015 6:51am
Quoting replaced
[...] No matter how many strategies or predictions you make, you can't predict where the roulette wheel will spin next. If you've made 1000+ trades on over 5x leverage and made money, then you're either lucky or a liar. [...]
Quoting replaced
No, roulette is a good example. It pays 2 to 1 if you get or black or red, it only pays 35 to 1 if you pick a number. It's possible to predict where the ball will probably land land in roulette, however you would have to know exactly how fast the ball and wheel is spinning. Something that can't be done by just looking. Forex is the same. [...]
In summary: You are just trolling.



How can you even compare trading to roulette or coin flipping?
..
  • #157
  • Feb 26, 2015 8:30am Feb 26, 2015 8:30am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Well, I got 6K posts, coz am trading for five years and like to discuss analysis with traders. Think no trader would insist so hard like you there is no such thing as time and probability though. I have never encountered anyone so stubborn, so have lost some time with you as found it interesting. But it was weekend and I was trying to help. As I always do. I really dont see what is your problem and why you insist so hard there is no probability. You must know it makes no sence, and prolly just like to argue and play smartass. So I appreciate...
Yeah, I learned a long time ago not to waste my time with social media wannabe traders. Go "write" about trading, LOL
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
  • #158
  • Feb 26, 2015 8:40am Feb 26, 2015 8:40am
Quoting Exodus
This an interesting post. {quote} I also think it is easier to spot opportunities with Equities. There are times when the markets move on a herd or fear basis that is largely unwarranted, and those moves create opportunities. I find it interesting that my goals are completely different for FX than for stocks. With stocks if I lose money I kick myself. I expect to make 10% annually as a baseline performance, and if that is achieved I ask myself why the return was that low. I expect to make at least 25% annually but that or a greater level of performance...
Equities have the advantage of a real volume indicator. Equities have the disadvantage of being too reactive to fundamentals. **The CEO stubbed his toe today so SELL SELL SELL*** for instance. I like Forex for its constraint on nonsensical fundamentals, and have learned to trade without knowing volume.
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
  • #159
  • Feb 26, 2015 8:43am Feb 26, 2015 8:43am
Quoting albchr
{quote} Me too. I have a very old saying. "It's pointless talking to the clueless" He's running around bashing folks on other threads as well. Just earned him a place in my 5 star iggy accommodations. I'm guessing it won't be long before somebody suspends him.
Thanks for the research. It was obvious he didn't trade, but I didn't think it was obvious he does not want to trade. Just another FF social media troll. Thanks.
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
  • #160
  • Feb 26, 2015 8:45am Feb 26, 2015 8:45am
Quoting Slicktick
{quote} {quote} In summary: You are just trolling. How can you even compare trading to roulette or coin flipping?
Theoretically you can also compute the result of a coin flip. After all, where a coin lands depends on how high you throw it, its spin rotation, its weight distribution, the surface where it lands, and probably other things too. In practice this is extremely hard to calculate, therefore predicting the result of a coin flip is for all intents and purposes, a 50/50 guess. Short-term (daytrading) price movements in retail forex area exactly the same way. Unless you are like Professor X from the X-men who can get into everybody's head and figure out what the next price tick will be. Actually, even he would fail because a lot of short term movements are created by computers. Think about it, when you day-trade forex you are entering into computer territory. You are basically saying that you have a unique mechanical method you can use to predict short-term movements with a higher that 50% chance in the long run. Good luck with that.
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