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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #4,741
  • Feb 25, 2015 8:48am Feb 25, 2015 8:48am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Good morning....waiting on Yellen right now. Price is going nowhere, what with perceived pound superiority over the dollar following Yellen's dovishness. I guess London session wanted the pound to go up badly. I regret not shorting the usd/cad-i thought the gbp/jpy would be better, but it turns out it was the exact opposite. And on that note, if usd/jpy breaks above 119 and it becomes support, then the only direction I can see the yen pairs going for the intraday is up. If not, then we might still go down more to retest 183.50
lookin for some dustbin levels now ... other than that on the side
  • #4,742
  • Feb 25, 2015 8:49am Feb 25, 2015 8:49am
Quoting AllyB
{quote} agree ... need to find dustbin levels
Although am very pleased when you agree, I dont know what you agree with . But out of my thoughts, think the best one was the break. I dunno wtf I overloaded Aussie pre NZD CB governor speech and China PMI...must be idiot.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #4,743
  • Edited 9:59am Feb 25, 2015 9:04am | Edited 9:59am
Nothing that important from Yellen...more or less the same.

Non important Yellen speech + current bullish(?) tendencies = we're going higher for today? Gah, I don't know. The geppy is not really a great pair for me to trade right now. I'm turning to usd/cad and eur/usd for now.

I personally blame the Bank of England. they're going pretty much all out hawkish, but from what I see from U.K. inflation & economic data, there's really not THAT much to drive such hawkishness. or maybe I missed something. Anyone notice something of note from the BOE & UK economy?

Update 1: Probably going to stay out of future BOE announcements regarding rates, since they could very well do a surprise hike. I'm not going to play with a hot potato.

Update 2: If 184 becomes resistance, I expect a retest of 183.50
  • #4,744
  • Feb 25, 2015 10:08am Feb 25, 2015 10:08am
are we going to see 182.50 this week ?
  • #4,745
  • Feb 25, 2015 10:28am Feb 25, 2015 10:28am
Quoting edyraper
are we going to see 182.50 this week ?
Break the new 38.2% fibonacci support of 183.50, maybe.

If we can't even hit below 184, probably not, barring an event driven movement.
  • #4,746
  • Feb 25, 2015 11:19am Feb 25, 2015 11:19am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Break the new 38.2% fibonacci support of 183.50, maybe. If we can't even hit below 184, probably not, barring an event driven movement.
if we see correction on gu , and uj yes i thing we will see lower i m waiting for long opportunities !
  • #4,747
  • Feb 25, 2015 11:25am Feb 25, 2015 11:25am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} if we see correction on gu , and uj yes i thing we will see lower i m waiting for long opportunities !
GU pretty reckless so far and forming this nano cup n handle in m5 chart. Is really nonscence pattern tho.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #4,748
  • Feb 25, 2015 3:28pm Feb 25, 2015 3:28pm
Watching gbp/usd 1.5500/1.5490. We've a good chance of testing it once more. If it acts as support, then I'm taking profit on my 184.50 shorts in gbp/jpy, since that leaves the possibility of the pound sterling gaining again during the coming London session, or at least staying in the upper areas.

*Edit: If it doesn't even drop to 1.1550, then I'm also closing regardless. Also going to avoid gbp pairs for the time being, since it's being bought up like mad thanks to BOE and Yellen. Tempting to long, but possible to get corrections within a trading week
  • #4,749
  • Edited 4:27pm Feb 25, 2015 4:12pm | Edited 4:27pm
Now at 184.6, I suspect the next 20 or so pips will tell a story. Failure to move over about 184.8 has it falling back through 184, then 183.5/6 to as low as 182 ish in a rising channel. A drop under 181 would have it well and truly dying.

Conversely a break higher now would suggest a possible move into at least 185.3 or so, suggesting that the wedge/channel thing has done its job, with a following 61.8 retrace back into only 183 before up.

The bullish argument has cable to 1.56, then dropping back to about 1.53 and UJ falling back into 118/117 before both move up together. Synco.
  • #4,750
  • Feb 25, 2015 4:31pm Feb 25, 2015 4:31pm
Quoting Mpt
Now at 184.6, I suspect the next 20 or so pips will tell a story. Failure to move over about 184.8 has it falling back through 184, then 183.5/6 to as low as 182 ish in a rising channel. A drop under 181 would have it well and truly dying. Conversely a break higher now would suggest a possible move into at least 185.3 or so, suggesting that the wedge/channel thing has done its job, with a following 61.8 retrace back into only 183 before up. The bullish argument has cable to 1.56, then dropping back to about 1.53 and UJ falling back into 118/117...
Unless we get a decent impact event, staying around/above 184.50/40 by London session would also indicate a bias in favor of the bulls, in my opinion.
  • #4,751
  • Feb 25, 2015 4:42pm Feb 25, 2015 4:42pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Unless we get a decent impact event, staying around/above 184.50/40 by London session would also indicate a bias in favor of the bulls, in my opinion.

All I'm doing is applying a bit of basic wave theory to offer three alternatives, two bullish and one not. But, as I wrote, the next little bit matters in the whole equation. Some people would see this exact point as close to terminal, at the start of a major down move. You can also view it as the near beginning of a major up trend. Only one view is correct.
  • #4,752
  • Feb 25, 2015 5:00pm Feb 25, 2015 5:00pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} All I'm doing is applying a bit of basic wave theory to offer three alternatives, two bullish and one not. But, as I wrote, the next little bit matters in the whole equation. Some people would see this exact point as close to terminal, at the start of a major down move. You can also view it as the near beginning of a major up trend. Only one view is correct.
Step right up, gents! Ya'll are in for the show of a lifetime. Here, we be havin' the good ole' dragon (that's gbp/jpy by the way, for you green newcomers) ready to fly. Whether she soars up or dives down, who knows! There's fortunes to be had in the coming days, and one just as great to be lost.

Heaven or hell, a trader's life is nothing but a dream.

http://fc01.deviantart.net/fs70/i/20...es-d41sbli.jpg

Look at her go on the one minute chart. She's really roaring to go somewhere.
  • #4,753
  • Feb 25, 2015 5:43pm Feb 25, 2015 5:43pm
It will tear off for 20 pip reverse 22 pip and sit there for days. Im tired of this.
  • #4,754
  • Feb 25, 2015 6:08pm Feb 25, 2015 6:08pm
closed longs all weekly longs @50 will buy daily candle breakout above 184.75

can afford to do this since the position is up 1000 pips breakout of 185 shoot next two targets
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #4,755
  • Feb 25, 2015 6:09pm Feb 25, 2015 6:09pm
H4 long closed
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #4,756
  • Feb 25, 2015 6:13pm Feb 25, 2015 6:13pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
H4 long closed {image}
Good Choice, there is still some up side to the lower TF's but nice run............
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #4,757
  • Feb 25, 2015 6:19pm Feb 25, 2015 6:19pm
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} trade {image}
Perfect.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #4,758
  • Feb 25, 2015 6:35pm Feb 25, 2015 6:35pm
Quoting forexalien
{quote} Good Choice, there is still some up side to the lower TF's but nice run............
daily shows a breakout if we can close in the 50s or higher here... but it's month end. rarely does a monthly candle with 1000 pip range close without at least 100-200 pip wick. I think the run is done, for February. March is a diff story.

buy dip or breakout is plan now
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #4,759
  • Feb 25, 2015 7:49pm Feb 25, 2015 7:49pm
Australian private capital expenditure data seemed to have brought the gbp/jpy up the previous high (184.80/70). If it becomes support, expect 185 to get breached, and I'd say that there are no more significant corrections on the horizon for now. We'll probably move up before we get another one.

If 184.70 is breached and becomes resistance again, then look for the previous fibonacci supports. I'd recommend the fibonacci retracement lines to be based on the recent rise of 181.60 to 184.70.

If the usd/jpy gets a firm rejection of 119.10/00 and it remains resistance, than the odds of resuming correction for the yen pairs increase again. if not, then it only further adds credence to new highs, since it means that even a dovish dollar is still stronger than the yen right now.
  • #4,760
  • Edited 8:37pm Feb 25, 2015 8:21pm | Edited 8:37pm
Be cautious at around 185.2/3. I still reckon this is the last move before the correction but if it breaks over, so be it. Otherwise the length of this wave from 183.5 would roughly equal the first move up from 181.6 at about 185.3. Also, the 61.8 retrace of 185.3 versus 181.6 is ... ???

Although it seems happy so far at 185.0
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