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  • #7,361
  • Feb 25, 2015 9:37am Feb 25, 2015 9:37am
Quoting The Fool
trying fill a $75 FB put calendar for $0.17, b/e's at $78.25
will go $76 if I can get it for 1c more
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,362
  • Feb 25, 2015 9:54am Feb 25, 2015 9:54am
Quoting The Fool
QQQ is 1 red candle only. CB largesse, ZIRP, BTFD but there's no dip.....equities up 4ever, never short a dull tape, so BTFATH, just buy something...
Naz 5k coming up, 1 red candle in a month?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,363
  • Feb 25, 2015 9:56am Feb 25, 2015 9:56am
Quoting The Fool
will go $76 if I can get it for 1c more
filled FB Mar/Mar4 $76 put calendar for $0.18
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,364
  • Edited 12:00pm Feb 25, 2015 11:46am | Edited 12:00pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Naz 5k coming up, 1 red candle in a month? {image}
Yeah, completely logical...

Quoting The Fool
{quote} filled FB Mar/Mar4 $76 put calendar for $0.18
What is the idea here?

Add-on
Ah I get it... FB have IVR of 1... getting in put calendar when IV is low... Looking for IV expansion... I see a good profit range, looking it now at dough... If filled at $0.18 debit, it is from $73.20 to $79...

VIX is low... maybe time to get long volatility... ? but on the other hand - it can be low for "considerable time"....
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,365
  • Feb 25, 2015 12:20pm Feb 25, 2015 12:20pm
Stock-market gains are making us dangerously complacent

"Statistics show 10%-15% corrections tend to happen every one to two years. Today, we haven’t had a 10% correction since 2011 — more than enough for people to forget what that feels like. "

Well... many people doesn't know what correction looks like... or bear market, or what a 2008 style crash looks like. It looks like hell. Been there. I was just indestructible, Chuck Norris style, from 2004... felt something is going to be different on Oct 2007... and then waterfall in 2008. Since this market had 6 years of steadily going up, except for one correction in 2011 - IMO, if we live long enough to see a -10% drop... what then... VIX to 40... algos hitting panic sell button? Retail investors panicking... Or there will be BTFD-ers with bags of cash... ? Yeah...

"Even last week when Greece was potentially on the brink of financial catastrophe and Grexit was looming…nobody cared. The S&P didn’t notice at all at what was once one of the most feared domino events in the post-financial-crisis era. Even Germany’s stock market has pretty much shrugged at the entire thing. "

"Complacency is now the norm and that is terrifying. "
It is obvious that there is no fear whatsoever... nowhere to be found... nobody taking profits... /NQ -- one red candle in entire month? And there are the highest valuations... no dip to buy... This is why when VIX goes up, it makes 10% per day...

#boring_market
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,366
  • Feb 25, 2015 12:25pm Feb 25, 2015 12:25pm
5yr bunds yield now negative - what to do with extra euros? UST yields, otoh, continue to go up today. I want to see if this divergence translates in a divergence between the US vs. EZone bourses?

http://www.ft.com/fastft/282943
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,367
  • Feb 25, 2015 12:35pm Feb 25, 2015 12:35pm
Big BABA dilutions coming, shares get out of lockup in Mar and Sept

http://247wallst.com/technology-3/20...irations-near/
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,368
  • Feb 25, 2015 12:37pm Feb 25, 2015 12:37pm
oh shit here come the US index breakout candles....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,369
  • Feb 25, 2015 12:39pm Feb 25, 2015 12:39pm
Quoting StrayDog
It is obvious that there is no fear whatsoever... nowhere to be found... nobody taking profits... /NQ -- one red candle in entire month? And there are the highest valuations... no dip to buy... This is why when VIX goes up, it makes 10% per day... #boring_market
it's crazy, nobody even complains about it anymore - except me & you (and Sosnoff)
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,370
  • Feb 25, 2015 12:57pm Feb 25, 2015 12:57pm
US oil inventories up over projections and wti still up anyway, /CL up >$1. Lots of big house analysts have been saying we will see another leg down - down to $40 - but I'd bet they are wrong, especially if USD weakens. I am shopping USO long-dated otm call diagonals with a wall on the downside...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,371
  • Feb 25, 2015 1:13pm Feb 25, 2015 1:13pm
Quoting StrayDog
... FB have IVR of 1... getting in put calendar when IV is low... Looking for IV expansion... I see a good profit range, looking it now at dough... If filled at $0.18 debit, it is from $73.20 to $79... VIX is low... maybe time to get long volatility... ? but on the other hand - it can be low for "considerable time"....
looks like FB will close >$80 and I will look to do other bear put trades on FB. Looking at UVXY & VXX....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,372
  • Feb 25, 2015 1:21pm Feb 25, 2015 1:21pm
Hey TF... how about some call spreads on TLT?

Like Mar 132/132.5 for $0.15 debit or something else maybe... looking strong... idk

Add-on
vol high on TLT... IVR 73... but it doesn't mean much if you are directionally right.
For selling put spreads, I would really like a higher VIX.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,373
  • Feb 25, 2015 1:31pm Feb 25, 2015 1:31pm
oh no! AAPL is dropping under $130, dragging the whole circus down with it....!

One thing I look for and often find (but don't actually trade a lot) in UVXY is these isolated cheap bid/ask spreads - look at the Mar $10 puts - you could do a $13/$10 short spread for $0.12, or a $14/$10 for better. Sometimes better ones show up - short UVXY $13 put prolly not too bad, but I hate tying up that kind of margin for small gain...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,374
  • Feb 25, 2015 1:36pm Feb 25, 2015 1:36pm
Quoting StrayDog
Hey TF... how about some call spreads on TLT?.
After the big dump we just saw on TLT, I'd be hesitant to look for much upside there, although it might do it. If we get good CPI, GDP numbers Thur-Fri and then a good NFP next week, we will see TLT fall further. The bond market does not believe Yellen is as dovish as she sounds...

I might be out of TLT for a while, already have Mar diag spreads running. But if I had to gamble there, I would set up something with upside protection and r/r below.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,375
  • Feb 25, 2015 1:39pm Feb 25, 2015 1:39pm
Quoting The Fool
....- short UVXY $13 put prolly not too bad, but I hate tying up that kind of margin for small gain... {image}
Yes, I remember one sentence from a Andrew Keen book, his boss was telling it to the trainees often:
"This firm isn't built on selling cheap puts..."


Thanks man on TLT answer, as you know I don't trade it, but I was curious...

Quoting The Fool
{quote} it's crazy, nobody even complains about it anymore - except me & you (and Sosnoff)
cos we are the party-breakers? And he is shorting /NQ every day...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,376
  • Feb 25, 2015 2:03pm Feb 25, 2015 2:03pm
chart is 5m Nasdaq COMP today - you see what a little news can do (AAPL)...I want to see US indices reaction to CPI/GDP to close out the week...I am desperate for red candles...
Attached Image
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,377
  • Feb 25, 2015 2:09pm Feb 25, 2015 2:09pm
TP does some crazy shit sometimes...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,378
  • Feb 25, 2015 2:22pm Feb 25, 2015 2:22pm
Quoting The Fool
Big BABA dilutions coming, shares get out of lockup in Mar and Sept http://247wallst.com/technology-3/20...irations-near/
calls out-trading puts almost 3:1 - a good time to try to run up the share price - just in time for the first big lockup flush...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,379
  • Feb 25, 2015 2:25pm Feb 25, 2015 2:25pm
Q's might print a little red hammer for the day, it's a miracle....thanks AAPL.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,380
  • Edited 3:09pm Feb 25, 2015 2:53pm | Edited 3:09pm
Quoting The Fool
Q's might print a little red hammer for the day, it's a miracle....thanks AAPL.
As stated earlier I'm looking @ OIL reaching the area in blue (80.9 Mid), thinking of taking a couple of call weeklies to 43 min. Most of this question is geared towards gator, where you can have input I believe would be on the move you think crude would make from that level, and how fast (time frame from buy 39.77 / 36.50 / 33.23 to tp 43.04? In normal conditions, would weeklies be too soon? May move my time up to a month or more...as once we enter the mofu zone, it may bounce around

My calls would be through USO as well. Which speaking of, judging by my royalty checks and friends....Texas is hurting still from oil lotta them out of the job
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