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Let's Trade Options

  • #7,341
  • Feb 24, 2015 11:56am Feb 24, 2015 11:56am
Quoting StrayDog
..... Looking what to do with SPWR... calls are deep ITM.
Seems that I should have bought stock at $30.60 in premarket... but I was thinking that there would be some pullback... nothing so far...
I overreacted on HD... only small sizes keeping me healthy now...

Inserted Video


waiting...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,342
  • Feb 24, 2015 11:59am Feb 24, 2015 11:59am
took trades, two spreads on SPY, both long call and put spreads together. My thinking behind it is we've had the speech by yellen and not much has changed and we're seeing new highs but want to play safe.

a combined debit of 12c, first long 213.50 call and wrote 214 call for a debit of 5c and then long 209.50 put and wrote 209 put for a debit of 7c

SPY Feb 2015 213.500 call (SPY150227C00213500)
-OPR
0.11 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.02(15.38%) 17:34

SPY Feb 2015 214.000 call (SPY150227C00214000)
-OPR
0.06 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.03(33.33%) 17:34

SPY Feb 2015 209.500 put (SPY150227P00209500)
-OPR
0.30 https://s.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/ba...nt-1093278.png 0.16(34.78%) 17:39

SPY Feb 2015 209.000 put (SPY150227P00209000)
-OPR
0.23 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.14(37.84%) 17:39
  • #7,343
  • Feb 24, 2015 12:41pm Feb 24, 2015 12:41pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
took trades, two spreads on SPY, both long call and put spreads together. My thinking behind it is we've had the speech by yellen and not much has changed and we're seeing new highs but want to play safe.
Business as usual at the Fed, so we see pretty good gains in UST's, but I am watching TLT for a limit to how far north it may run.

Month-end and ECB QE coming in March, Greek drama out of the lights for a few months. I wonder if we may not see US equities cool off a bit in favor of euro risk assets?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,344
  • Feb 24, 2015 1:00pm Feb 24, 2015 1:00pm
SPWR...
SPWR Feb27 calls are $3 ITM... Rolling higher and out? I can roll only to March 30.50 for small credit, every strike higher would be for debit... But that is no guarantee that I would avoid loss, it could be even bigger...

I saw a $30.60 price - I was thinking - OK, I can buy stocks, but what if stock have a pullback... than I would lose more on stocks... this is example how a stock that was under $30 ($27.80 when I took position)... can make a big damage... Should have done that. I would lock then a $0.60 loss per option... which is now much bigger, since I have 3 calls.

This ER's cycle and previous one - lots of outlier moves... with selling premium, one should be really careful in selecting stocks. This one had good news prior to ER's - yesterday in AH - and then beat on EPS, revenue and everything today BMO. Total FUBAR. I will probably take another good hit in the butt with this one.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,345
  • Feb 24, 2015 1:02pm Feb 24, 2015 1:02pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Business as usual at the Fed, so we see pretty good gains in UST's, but I am watching TLT for a limit to how far north it may run. Month-end and ECB QE coming in March, Greek drama out of the lights for a few months. I wonder if we may not see US equities cool off a bit in favor of euro risk assets?
weeklys keep it safer than the longer term ones
  • #7,346
  • Feb 24, 2015 1:36pm Feb 24, 2015 1:36pm
Idk... JY was really "flexible" ... you know, like a combo of "patient" / "no rush"... so no rate hike in June ?
I expect a slow grind up this week, since idk what NEW could we possible find out tomorrow... market IS overstretched, due for correction, but markets tends to get out from that stage by going trough a boring consolidation, and then another leg up... Everything is rosy now, no rate hike soon, Greece is A-OK...

Don't worry, be happy...

Traders shouldn't have a bias, and I am paying for mine. Traders should also be "patient" - I am not... lost it over years... But a combo of aggressiveness and patience - that is a good thing. I had that once - and it was a blast... Just amazing. I had more spare time though. Working to get there again, it takes a "considerable time"... more time than I have expected. Acc was negative, I pushed it to positive territory... pour more money in it... now it is negative again... and it all starts again. Learned a lot though, I expect a payback some time. Not soon, but some time in the future. I am prepared to give a whole year of option trading to be at b/e at the end. I will tap myself over shoulder and say to myself something like "everything is going to be OK, just believe in yourself" (where is that puking smiley?) Moving on...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,347
  • Edited 10:14pm Feb 24, 2015 2:01pm | Edited 10:14pm
Quoting StrayDog
SPWR... This one had good news prior to ER's - yesterday in AH - and then beat on EPS, revenue and everything today BMO. Total FUBAR. I will probably take another good hit in the butt with this one.
Hey SDog, sorry about SPWR, that was kind of a perfect wave that slammed you there with the FSLR news on top of the good ER. I have not studied your trade in depth, but if it was me, I might wait until at least tomorrow - the oil storage data comes out and the solar stocks rise and fall with the price of oil - if there continues to be a storage glut, SPWR might fall back with falling oil. Also, maybe since it's month-end, we might see profit taking on that SPWR move.

All of the above could do the opposite, though - anyway, good luck.

Only trouble trade I have is that same old SPY diagonal. Was hoping to hang in til next week, may not make it. SnP PA reminds me of the October run (the Bullard spike) where there were 7 green weekly candles in a row. Just when you get a doji & think there might be a reversal, nope...just more of the same. I will not be surprised to see a really fat bullish day that washes me out of that SPY trade.

Sucks to be in a bad trade, always messes up your flow, I'm sure I know it's best to just close em before they get to be a problem, but .... easier said than done.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,348
  • Feb 24, 2015 2:49pm Feb 24, 2015 2:49pm
16 trading days down in Feb, all green save 2 for SPY. I am looking at the Feb4 $211/$210.5 put vertical...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,349
  • Feb 24, 2015 6:02pm Feb 24, 2015 6:02pm
Quoting The Fool
16 trading days down in Feb, all green save 2 for SPY. I am looking at the Feb4 $211/$210.5 put vertical...
had that set to go for 9 cents near the close and the SPY bumped down after it broke $212....will see what tomorrow brings
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,350
  • Feb 24, 2015 7:01pm Feb 24, 2015 7:01pm
Quoting The Fool
16 trading days down in Feb, all green save 2 for SPY. I am looking at the Feb4 $211/$210.5 put vertical...
QQQ is 1 red candle only. CB largesse, ZIRP, BTFD but there's no dip.....equities up 4ever, never short a dull tape, so BTFATH, just buy something...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,351
  • Feb 24, 2015 9:19pm Feb 24, 2015 9:19pm
looking for /SI to push up to $17 in Mar. SLV Mar $16.5/$17 call vertical b/e's at $16.50, about a 4x maxP
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-24_slv.png Size: 54 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,352
  • Feb 24, 2015 9:45pm Feb 24, 2015 9:45pm
FB been supported at $74 since Oct. Mar/Mar4 $74 put calendar b/e's upside at $77.25. MaxP good at >4x.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-24_fb.png Size: 54 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,353
  • Feb 24, 2015 10:11pm Feb 24, 2015 10:11pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
took trades, two spreads on SPY, both long call and put spreads together. My thinking behind it is we've had the speech by yellen and not much has changed and we're seeing new highs but want to play safe. a combined debit of 12c, first long 213.50 call and wrote 214 call for a debit of 5c and then long 209.50 put and wrote 209 put for a debit of 7c
Yeah, CG, I doubt if another day of Yellen testimony will have a different effect than we saw today. There's not much apparent fear in the equity markets and I will not be surprised to see some big bull breakout moves soon. OTOH, US indices have not printed a decent red candle in weeks, maybe the month-end could bring out some profit taking. Either way I could see your spreads getting itm. I am looking to duplicate with something on SPY or QQQ on Wed...will be looking for signs overnight and fishing at the open...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,354
  • Feb 24, 2015 10:45pm Feb 24, 2015 10:45pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} a Mar/Mar4 $119 put calendar, as below. If TLT claws back some ground on Mon-Tue, I'd look at bringing that up to $120. Also may wait and get it straight from the horse's mouth, might be able to do cheap verticals or even long puts if Yellen delivers hawkish news midweek.
nope, I'm not feeling it for TLT fotm spreads now. JY will keep yields low until full employment and 2% inflation and pigs fly. But the peak is in for the year, I'd bet, up there around $138.50...and we may be heading for some die-off in volatility in bond trade, maybe ranging around $125 +/- $5. I don't really like trading things that don't move, so we'll see....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,355
  • Feb 25, 2015 2:58am Feb 25, 2015 2:58am
SAN Jun vertical gives 5x for a move to $9+

the Jan/Sep calendar be tough to fill - no volume/no OI in Sep $10 calls...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-25_san.png Size: 58 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,356
  • Feb 25, 2015 8:28am Feb 25, 2015 8:28am
not all diag spreads I do end up being a headache. This TLT put spread expires next Friday, was a free entry, will pay max $400 if TLT continues south & settles around $125.5 in 8 days...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-25_TLT.png Size: 57 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,357
  • Feb 25, 2015 8:40am Feb 25, 2015 8:40am
Quoting The Fool
SAN Jun vertical gives 5x for a move to $9+ the Jan/Sep calendar be tough to fill - no volume/no OI in Sep $10 calls...
did this Jun $8/9 bull call for $0.13
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,358
  • Feb 25, 2015 8:54am Feb 25, 2015 8:54am
Quoting The Fool
looking for /SI to push up to $17 in Mar. SLV Mar $16.5/$17 call vertical b/e's at $16.50, about a 4x maxP
did a Mar/Mar4 $17 call calendar for $0.06 instead
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,359
  • Feb 25, 2015 9:08am Feb 25, 2015 9:08am
UST futures slipping a wee bit & equities flirting with a slide, just a coy smile of a drop....if one of the brave Congressmen would twist JY's nipple maybe she would squawk just right and give heart to the bears...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,360
  • Feb 25, 2015 9:22am Feb 25, 2015 9:22am
trying fill a $75 FB put calendar for $0.17, b/e's at $78.25
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-25_fb.png Size: 65 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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