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  • #7,301
  • Feb 21, 2015 3:03pm Feb 21, 2015 3:03pm
Why shouldn't Nasdaq just go up forever? Trading is easy: you just buy Nasdaq. QQQ's have run up >$8 in the last 3 weeks. Why shouldn't they do about that in the next 4 weeks? The Mar $114 calls are just $0.05. 20-lot $114 long call trade risks $120 to return >$4000 if QQQ puts on another $8 in the next 4 weeks.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,302
  • Feb 21, 2015 3:20pm Feb 21, 2015 3:20pm
Q's $114 Mar/Mar4 $114 calendar brings the b/e down to $111, but limits the maxP to $1,150...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,303
  • Feb 21, 2015 3:56pm Feb 21, 2015 3:56pm
ugh, I gotta do something about this SPY diagonal. upside b/e has come in to about $112.65 - at the rate we're going, SPY will go past that in the coming week....unless Granny Yellen shakes things up....or Greece drama returns for an epilogue.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,304
  • Edited 4:51pm Feb 21, 2015 4:32pm | Edited 4:51pm
Quoting The Fool
ugh, I gotta do something about this SPY diagonal. upside b/e has come in to about $112.65 - at the rate we're going, SPY will go past that in the coming week....unless Granny Yellen shakes things up....or Greece drama returns for an epilogue.
You can buy close the Mar $210 for $3.40, sell the Mar5 $212 for $2.49, you end up with a Mar5 $211/212 vertical @ $0.90 debit that b/e's @ $213.10 at expiry, not much upside past that - ~$115 max. If you are wrong directionally and SPY falls back, there be large losses to the downside.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,305
  • Feb 21, 2015 4:50pm Feb 21, 2015 4:50pm
Looking at various options, none good, will have to see what coming week brings. Eight green daily candles in a row, just like the Bullard spike from October, may just keep on going. But my hope is Yellen lets out the hawk in Congress. If I can get to the first week of March, the upside b/e moves out > $210, ...worth a shot to hang in.

Lessons learned - too much time, not enough room.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,306
  • Feb 22, 2015 2:31am Feb 22, 2015 2:31am
UVXY sub-$20...how low can it go?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,307
  • Edited 3:20am Feb 22, 2015 2:58am | Edited 3:20am
Quoting The Fool
UVXY sub-$20...how low can it go?
In this bearish combo I add a short put vertical spread to a long put Calendar spread. If I can sell the vertical for >= the price of the calendar, I will have got complete protection to the upside. The vertical also extends the low range of the calendar b/e - from $16.25 to $15.50. If that is not enough, the vertical also raises the maxP of the trade from $550 to $800. maxP is at $19 for the calendar alone or for the combo. Vid clip toggles between calendar and calendar + vertical. Downside is margin use and steep loss if UVXY moves hard lower, should watch for moves to $16 and be ready to close if it gets there.

http://screencast.com/t/bJlvx5gI
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,308
  • Feb 22, 2015 8:34pm Feb 22, 2015 8:34pm
Mar/Apr UNG $17 cal, using itm puts. The call calendar with same dates is a penny cheaper....why use itm puts?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,309
  • Feb 22, 2015 8:45pm Feb 22, 2015 8:45pm
Last three weeks of dump for UST's was impressive. Early Monday I see good flow into /ZB - TLT may gap up US Monday, we'll see. Be nice if TLT would run up a bit Mon-Tue, then we see a bit of hawkishness from Yellen in Congress - might be a good opp to make a pure bearish trade on TLT. Like....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,310
  • Edited Feb 23, 2015 2:16am Feb 22, 2015 9:00pm | Edited Feb 23, 2015 2:16am
Quoting The Fool
- might be a good opp to make a pure bearish trade on TLT. Like....
a Mar/Mar4 $119 put calendar, as below. If TLT claws back some ground on Mon-Tue, I'd look at bringing that up to $120. Also may wait and get it straight from the horse's mouth, might be able to do cheap verticals or even long puts if Yellen delivers hawkish news midweek.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,311
  • Feb 23, 2015 12:05am Feb 23, 2015 12:05am
The last time Granma Yellen went to Congress (7/15-16/2014) the EUR/USD broke down out of consol around $1.36, and it didn't stop sliding until January.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,312
  • Feb 23, 2015 12:36am Feb 23, 2015 12:36am
http://www.simpleroptions.com/public...d500c724bcff01

JC right to note huge flow out of US bonds shows up in huge flows into US stocks recently. Also interesting to see his trading results - he's up 32% year to date in a 6-fig account, says his goal is 2.3% per week....just trading spreads.

/ZB and other UST futures well up early, watching those...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,313
  • Feb 23, 2015 12:52am Feb 23, 2015 12:52am
could it all fall apart?

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/23/bu...tors.html?_r=1
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,314
  • Feb 23, 2015 1:53am Feb 23, 2015 1:53am
Quoting The Fool
could it all fall apart?
Sure, everything breaks down eventually.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,315
  • Feb 23, 2015 2:12am Feb 23, 2015 2:12am
omygosh /NQ is done gone red. /ZB still well green, expect a gap up in TLT NY Monday. Possibly bond market has got ahead of itself with the big selloff in Feb, and if Yellen goes all dovey in Congress this week, we will see TLT pop back north of $130...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,316
  • Edited 9:28am Feb 23, 2015 9:04am | Edited 9:28am
Quoting The Fool
buy Greece? ...
Yes, that is a good speculation... a friend of mine already banked good profit two times on Eurobank EFG... (0.14 --> 0.19 and 0.16x --> 0.19) you can find it on IB platform and trade directly from Athens stock market... Ticker is EUROB.

Quoting The Fool
omygosh /NQ is done gone red.... {image}
Qucikly BTFD... quickly... don't let it go away...
#sarcasam
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,317
  • Feb 23, 2015 9:28am Feb 23, 2015 9:28am
Quoting StrayDog
Qucikly BTFD... quickly... don't let it go away... #sarcasam
lol, 8 consecutive green daily candles on the Q's, gotta throw a red one in sometime....prolly be a doji
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,318
  • Feb 23, 2015 9:40am Feb 23, 2015 9:40am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} lol, 8 consecutive green daily candles on the Q's, gotta throw a red one in sometime....prolly be a doji
Yeah... AAPL is pushing up like crazy... just breaking every level... gap up every single day last couple of days... Only stock that is positive today from my Nasdaq list.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,319
  • Feb 23, 2015 9:44am Feb 23, 2015 9:44am
Well. if it weren't for the Greek drama dragging out, we would likely see more upside action in the US indices. Just waiting for the tweets.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,320
  • Feb 23, 2015 9:55am Feb 23, 2015 9:55am
Quoting The Fool
Well. if it weren't for the Greek drama dragging out, we would likely see more upside action in the US indices. Just waiting for the tweets.
Greek drama is good only to lift markets ---> as releif rally of some kind... it can't drag US markets down... too far, too insignificant. Ukraine also. Al that shit is European problem. Unless we see open war Russia / Ukraine --> which we will not see. We will maybe see some pullback, like no more than 2% --> which will be aggressively bought, cos it is obvious that /ES wants to go to 2130/40...

Interest rate hike? That will probably be done 0.01% per quarter, so that stock market don't suffer much... Idk --> could we see one beautiful blow-off top sometime in lets say April? When every bear capitulates, one gigantic short-covering rally and then a significant correction, to give sense to this market. I am struggling to find anything cheap on US markets. Can't find any cheap stock atm. Or this will last forever and beyond?
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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