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  • #7,281
  • Feb 20, 2015 6:20am Feb 20, 2015 6:20am
here come the tweets. I don't believe anything. You can't kill the Boogey Man. I ain't gonna poke him with a stick. I need a /ES slide ....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,282
  • Feb 20, 2015 6:24am Feb 20, 2015 6:24am
Quoting StrayDog
... Market is top heavy IMO, upside exhaustion levels are reached... Only NQ made a higher high, but DJIA OR Dow Jones Transports did not breached old highs - which is needed to confirm primary bull market, according to Dow theory. Add-on: Forgot this - volume is low... really low. Market can't go UP on low volume for "considerable time" ... so be "patient" in shorting it... you know, "no rush" , and IMO - you will be rewarded. Remember - bull go up on stairs, bear goes down on elevator. I am interested in selling call spreads on SPY, maybe...
Market tuning in for the Greek final act - maybe it will get puked into next week? - I want to see Schaeubable smack the living shit out of wiseass commie Varoufuckass. I will goose-step all day if the Germans show the Greeks the back door out of the EMU...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,283
  • Feb 20, 2015 6:54am Feb 20, 2015 6:54am
Quoting The Fool
here come the tweets. I don't believe anything. You can't kill the Boogey Man. I ain't gonna poke him with a stick. I need a /ES slide ....
UST futures getting bought, /ES barely budging. US equities m/l bullet-proof...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,284
  • Edited 8:55am Feb 20, 2015 8:31am | Edited 8:55am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} UST futures getting bought, /ES barely budging. US equities m/l bullet-proof...
/ES --> December high (2088) acting as support now... very tight range.

add-on: support broken
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,285
  • Feb 20, 2015 9:04am Feb 20, 2015 9:04am
closed out of SPY $209.5/211.00 call diagonal for $0.15 net. If SPY had gotten in the sweet spot a day or so ago, it would have been 2x that or better, but I'm glad to be out for net gain

Mar/Mar5 diagonal looking better, but still lotsa time and not enuf room imo.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,286
  • Feb 20, 2015 9:13am Feb 20, 2015 9:13am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} /ES --> December high (2088) acting as support now... very tight range. add-on: support broken
well, just waiting for the next tweet shotgun. I got out of TLT put spreads for a net $0.05 loss, very happy to take that loss, was down $0.30 yesterday and I was hanging on for the possibility of safe haven flow to UST's today re: Eurozone drama.

Last Feb expiry trade I'm trying to close is UNG, put spread, entered for credit couple weeks ago and winter cold finally socked it to the US east, natgas has come well up, so little profit there....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,287
  • Feb 20, 2015 9:31am Feb 20, 2015 9:31am
/ES made a retest of 2088 level... it can go 20 points lower no problemo, just technically speaking...
I managed to miss entry on CFDs, so I bought a few of SPY Feb 208.5/208 put spreads for $0.08 debit.
A cheap and low POP gamble... to see if this tech level makes any sense today.

Sudden drop on /TF totally screwed my intention on IWM credit spreads... On SPY I wanted to sell March 213/215 call spread... we will see later about that.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,288
  • Feb 20, 2015 9:39am Feb 20, 2015 9:39am
Quoting StrayDog
.... so I bought a few of SPY Feb 208.5/208 put spreads for $0.08 debit. ....
100 more of those just traded...
Ah people, if you gonna trade my ideas ALL THE TIME, I will sent you my account no. for small donation

add-on
And we will lose together on this one... Jason lives! Michael lives! Freddy lives!
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,289
  • Feb 20, 2015 9:49am Feb 20, 2015 9:49am
trying to fill FXE Mar/Mar4 call calendar @ $0.04, good b/e range, good r:r - if the euro dies I'm out $120....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,290
  • Feb 20, 2015 10:07am Feb 20, 2015 10:07am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} well, just waiting for the next tweet shotgun. I got out of TLT put spreads for a net $0.05 loss, very happy to take that loss, ....
I expect those tweets by Bwussels suppertime. It has been a good Feb cycle, I learned a lot about trading diagonals. In the case of my SPY Feb expiry call diagonal, I had a perfect sweet spot finish here on expiry day...BUT, SPY IVR caved as it dithered around in a slow uptrend, and my spread options iv crashed - so the sweet spot paid much less than the fat prize the earlier P/L indicated....everything changes. Maybe that's an argument for playing put spreads? TLT put spreads, well, good example of being right directionally, but not right enough, not allowing enough room to catch the largest 3-week downmove in the history of the fund. Typical Fool luck there. But I got out for modest loss, I live to trade another day, a little bit wiser.

Have a great weekend, ya'll.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,291
  • Feb 20, 2015 10:34am Feb 20, 2015 10:34am
Quoting The Fool
... I live to trade another day, a little bit wiser. Have a great weekend, ya'll.
My version:
Hope to be wise one day. I live to trade another day, with account that just got smaller , because a totally unpredictable thing happened - a dip was bought!

Just BTFD,
just place bear traps everywhere,
like you care for Greece,
that shit can't move market,
and we all know that,
but still we are in a bear trap!

Have a nice weekend my friend.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,292
  • Feb 20, 2015 2:31pm Feb 20, 2015 2:31pm
That dip on open... what a bear trap that was... Congratulations for BTFD-ers... you won again. Trend is your friend, right?

A gipsy is yelling from the truck:
"Hello good people! A circus is in your lovely town! Come to see all sorts of wonders!
- a bearded woman!
- elephant man!
- the strongest man on Earth!
- trader who made money by shorting Nasdaq!"

Yeah, that last thing don't exist, mofo...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,293
  • Edited 4:57pm Feb 20, 2015 2:45pm | Edited 4:57pm
Don't worry, be happy, StrayDog - there are lots of hunts to dream about. Now with Greece maybe out of the headlines we can get back to the same old shit, omg the Federal Reserve is going to raise the interest rates...or not. The ECB's QE will make the world safe for put sellers. Oil is gonna go up or down. And so on wit da things of this nature.

I am sitting on the mid w/ the FXE calendar I showed above & no fill - thin volume prolly. I may adjust it...

I bought a EWZ $42 Jun/Jul call calendar, to go w/ the $32 calls @ the same dates - a double calendar, see below. I will monitor this trade for movement towards the b/e points on the May expiry P/L - hopefully EWZ will settle somewhere within $1 either side of $42 or $43 to hit maxP > $1,100....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,294
  • Feb 20, 2015 9:35pm Feb 20, 2015 9:35pm
The more time in a time spread, the wider the profit zone. But you pay for that time. So if you find a wide time spread that you can get in cheap, you are on the right track. To good profits, that is. USO Jul/Oct $26 calendar will profit between $20 and $35 at expiry. A $15 spread in USO is about a $40 spread for WTI. $20 a pop for these is a bargain, if you can actually get filled there. July expiry is a long time to wait, but, of course, if you are entering trades like this constantly, you are constantly closing them. For sick profits, that is.

(Note: USO IVR is >50% now. If USO grinds up, IVR will fall off, the options in this spread will cheapen, and that will bring in the b/e points. It's still a good one, though. If you hit the lotto and stick $26 at expiry, payout is $1.60 on a $0.20 ticket.) (Note, that will come down if/when iv of the options scales back, still awesome though....).
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,295
  • Feb 20, 2015 10:13pm Feb 20, 2015 10:13pm
ECB QE, gonna be a party. What are some European equity opps? How about the banks? Flows out of bonds into stocks, rates will rise, good for banks - bank stocks will elevate. Checking some - SAN, maybe. Options a little thin. Jun/Sep $10 call calendar b/e's $8-$11.65, maxP $0.85 on a $0.05 debit.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,296
  • Feb 20, 2015 10:45pm Feb 20, 2015 10:45pm
Somebody did this spread on SAN today, using deep itm puts. How do you think it should be managed?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,297
  • Edited Feb 21, 2015 1:18am Feb 20, 2015 11:30pm | Edited Feb 21, 2015 1:18am
buy Greece? NBG has doubled in the last 2 weeks....

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/21/bu...orld.html?_r=1
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,298
  • Feb 21, 2015 12:43pm Feb 21, 2015 12:43pm
TSLA IVR way down, verticals on the $5 strike spreads offer great r:r, you just need a big move. In a "risk-on" world TSLA can get her done. Look back thru daily chart I see several 1-week moves >$30 up. If it could do $30 up in the next month, the vertical below would make money...5-lot gives maxP $2,300 on a $180 bet.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,299
  • Feb 21, 2015 1:18pm Feb 21, 2015 1:18pm
Quoting The Fool
How about the banks? Flows out of bonds into stocks, rates will rise, good for banks - bank stocks will elevate.
Same this side of the pond - BAC has come up >$1 in Feb, with the falling UST's. That's going to keep on, fear of Fed hiking rates will persist if US econ data stays positive. BAC Apr/May $18 call calendar for a nickel....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,300
  • Feb 21, 2015 2:30pm Feb 21, 2015 2:30pm
http://chrisciovacco.tumblr.com/post...es-it-mean-for

"...the average gain in the S&P 500 one year after a big spike in interest rates was 19.14%. The short-term performance of stocks was typically more subdued."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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