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  • #7,261
  • Feb 18, 2015 2:09pm Feb 18, 2015 2:09pm
Quoting The Fool
Meanwhile, hyperdovish Yellen Fed will keep rates low forever....if they do come out of left field and put on a 0.10% fund rate hike in June, it will be enough to crash the US markets 20%, possibly even end life as we know it.
so, of course, we get another alltime high SnP close....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,262
  • Feb 18, 2015 2:26pm Feb 18, 2015 2:26pm
SCTY has ER's in AH.

I did some SCTY Feb 50/65 short strangles... wide, for $0.56 credit (sold both sides for $0.28 CR). Margin req about $600 per strangle.

SCTY @ $57.25, with EM up to $4... or almost 7%. I done the SS $7 wide. Pros did the 52.5/63...
IVR not high, but options IV is above 130%, so I am expecting a move inside EM, and a massive vol crush.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,263
  • Feb 18, 2015 2:55pm Feb 18, 2015 2:55pm
Quoting StrayDog
SCTY has ER's in AH. I did some SCTY Feb 50/65 short strangles...
good luck, SDog - cya later
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,264
  • Feb 19, 2015 12:35am Feb 19, 2015 12:35am
still thinking of a crude rise with seasonal demand, will be watching storage data out Thurs
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-18_uo1.png Size: 56 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,265
  • Feb 19, 2015 12:43am Feb 19, 2015 12:43am
been trying to fill these long-dated call verticals at the low mids, just can't quite get in....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-18_uso2.png Size: 51 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,266
  • Feb 19, 2015 1:40am Feb 19, 2015 1:40am
USO @ $25 in July (higher, prolly) - compare a calendar and a fly. The Jul/Oct calendar costs a lot (>4x) more, but has a wider profit range ($19.90-$32.30) vs the fly ($22.70-$27.40). Calendar gives you potential to spread on subsequent legs past Jul expiry... Both are margin neutral. Calendar gets much higher profit at earlier dates.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-18_uso4.png Size: 62 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-18_uso5.png Size: 35 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,267
  • Feb 19, 2015 2:18am Feb 19, 2015 2:18am
hoping to get in on a vertical put spread in SPY near opening long 208 put and sell 207.50 put for a net of 4c or under, may not get this price so I may roll down but still looking for a net of 4c maybe on 207.50/207

SPY Feb 2015 208.000 put (SPY150220P00208000)
-OPR
0.22 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.15(40.54%) 18 Feb 21:14

SPY Feb 2015 207.500 put (SPY150220P00207500)
-OPR
0.18 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.14(45.16%) 18 Feb 21:14
  • #7,268
  • Feb 19, 2015 2:41am Feb 19, 2015 2:41am
Quoting Cecil Gee
hoping to get in on a vertical put spread in SPY near opening long 208 put and sell 207.50 put for a net of 4c or under, may not get this price so I may roll down but still looking for a net of 4c maybe on 207.50/207
hey CG, yeah I took a shot at that today, thinking we might get some selling on a hawkish FOMC minutes, but I jumped the gun & had to take a small loss. I see now in early London /ES is trading down, so Thursday entry on a vert put spread may play well. I also see /ZB trending up - omg I could get SPY down and TLT up on the last 2 days of fat diagonals I have running and end up making some bank for Feb? Good luck with SPY spreads...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,269
  • Feb 19, 2015 6:09am Feb 19, 2015 6:09am
Quoting Cecil Gee
hoping to get in on a vertical put spread in SPY near opening long 208 put and sell 207.50 put for a net of 4c or under, may not get this price so I may roll down but still looking for a net of 4c maybe on 207.50/207 SPY Feb 2015 208.000 put (SPY150220P00208000) -OPR 0.22 {image} 0.15(40.54%) 18 Feb 21:14 SPY Feb 2015 207.500 put (SPY150220P00207500) -OPR 0.18 {image} 0.14(45.16%) 18 Feb 21:14
may also do a put vertical in addition to the call vertical as above, the put 212/212.50 is 5c net. From a R-R its great value. So the playing both ways will cost less than 10c plus comms but the reward will pay for it
  • #7,270
  • Feb 19, 2015 6:43am Feb 19, 2015 6:43am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} may also do a put vertical in addition to the call vertical as above, the put 212/212.50 is 5c net. From a R-R its great value. So the playing both ways will cost less than 10c plus comms but the reward will pay for it
You mean call vertical .

Yeah, you could make a Reverse Iron Condor, having both put and call debit spreads, but reward comes only if market moves... really moves.
If it stay still like previous days, both spreads will expire worthless.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,271
  • Feb 19, 2015 8:54am Feb 19, 2015 8:54am
Quoting StrayDog
SCTY has ER's in AH. I did some SCTY Feb 50/65 short strangles... wide, for $0.56 credit (sold both sides for $0.28 CR). .......
Closed calls for $0.01... closed puts for $0.11 (SCTY @ $52.85) just in case it continues to drop, despite numerous "maintained buy ratings"...
So, sold strangles for $0.56, bought back for $0.12... a winner.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SCTY-closed.PNG Size: 17 KB
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,272
  • Feb 19, 2015 9:08am Feb 19, 2015 9:08am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Closed calls for $0.01... closed puts for $0.11 (SCTY @ $52.85) just in case it continues to drop, despite numerous "maintained buy ratings"... So, sold strangles for $0.56, bought back for $0.12... a winner. {image}
stack em up, baby.,,
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,273
  • Feb 19, 2015 9:18am Feb 19, 2015 9:18am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} may also do a put vertical in addition to the call vertical as above, the put 212/212.50 is 5c net. From a R-R its great value. So the playing both ways will cost less than 10c plus comms but the reward will pay for it
SnP looks impossible to suppress, but I dunno about a 20 pt move by Friday
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,274
  • Feb 19, 2015 9:56am Feb 19, 2015 9:56am
Solar sector not looking good... SCTY down after ER's.
FSLR has ER's on Feb25, CSIQ on March5... why would they be any better? Oil down again...

Solar ETF:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TAN.PNG Size: 238 KB


TAN has terrible options.... useless. But, interesting place to short.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,275
  • Feb 19, 2015 10:01am Feb 19, 2015 10:01am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} SnP looks impossible to suppress, but I dunno about a 20 pt move by Friday
SnP? Very, very frustrating to trade it this week. Unless you scalp for 1 point, off course.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,276
  • Feb 19, 2015 12:57pm Feb 19, 2015 12:57pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} SnP? Very, very frustrating to trade it this week. Unless you scalp for 1 point, off course.
yup, the whole month of Feb a painful grind up, most daily candles <$1 OtoC. I am hanging in SPY diagonals, not hopeful about making much, doubtful we will see much red down unless there be big bad news somewhere
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,277
  • Feb 19, 2015 6:38pm Feb 19, 2015 6:38pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} SnP looks impossible to suppress, but I dunno about a 20 pt move by Friday
I'm looking for a good drop on S/P tomorrow
  • #7,278
  • Feb 20, 2015 12:04am Feb 20, 2015 12:04am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I'm looking for a good drop on S/P tomorrow
well, that'd be a sight for sore eyes. current consolidation has got to give, sooner or later. I get the feeling that markets are waiting to see the Greek drama thru to the final act. Coming right up here in the last hours of the week. Won't surprise me a bit to see some "breakthrough" type announcement - the stern but kindly Germans give the Greeks a good talking to but send them back to Athens with truckloads of euros. Happy Ending - and the stage is set for the QE feeding frenzy. I am looking at March/Mar4 SPY call calendars @ $115 +/-....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,279
  • Feb 20, 2015 5:43am Feb 20, 2015 5:43am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I'm looking for a good drop on S/P tomorrow
Quoting The Fool
{quote} well, that'd be a sight for sore eyes. current consolidation has got to give, sooner or later. I get the feeling that markets are waiting to see the Greek drama thru to the final act. ....
Here is my view of market...

Eurogroup meeting will determine market moves today. But, generally, I agree that this consolidation GOT TO GIVE.. and it will be sooner, rather than later. Maybe not today - timing is a bitch - but I think next week it will. So, if you are bearish and nothing happens today, you will lose on Feb options if you want to play this aggressively. If it really gives 20 points or more today - like CG is looking for - than you will make nice money that way. Or, you could be more patient and just SELL call spreads with more DTE, like March expiry (wait to see will VIX rise, to get a better price), OR enter a short position on /ES futures or SPX CFDs or SPY...

Market is top heavy IMO, upside exhaustion levels are reached... Only NQ made a higher high, but DJIA OR Dow Jones Transports did not breached old highs - which is needed to confirm primary bull market, according to Dow theory.

Add-on: Forgot this - volume is low... really low. Market can't go UP on low volume for "considerable time" ... so be "patient" in shorting it... you know, "no rush" , and IMO - you will be rewarded. Remember - bull go up on stairs, bear goes down on elevator.

I am interested in selling call spreads on SPY, maybe also on IWM, probably March expiry.

Disclaimer: I am bearish, but feel free to buy now, if you like...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,280
  • Feb 20, 2015 5:57am Feb 20, 2015 5:57am
Good article on buying and selling pressure:

Revisiting Buying and Selling Pressure and What It Means for Stocks

there seems to be some stuff on trading psychology on this blog... gotta check that, since I recognize that being inpatient is a trading issue for me...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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