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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #4,661
  • Feb 24, 2015 1:22pm Feb 24, 2015 1:22pm
Ah great. usd/jpy stuck on a fib support despite BOC announcements. Given its low pip movement, it means we''ll be stuck above (or maybe at) 183.40/30 for some time.

I'm out of the computer screen for now. Bearish momentum is at a standstill. Be back after NY ends, or when Tokyo starts. Still shorting, though.
  • #4,662
  • Feb 24, 2015 3:45pm Feb 24, 2015 3:45pm
Pretty nice looking shooting star candle on the Daily. Sell time??
  • #4,663
  • Feb 24, 2015 5:42pm Feb 24, 2015 5:42pm
Quoting Jeremy Oak
Pretty nice looking shooting star candle on the Daily. Sell time??
Whenever I see a shooting star in the daily I know I missed the trade..
  • #4,664
  • Feb 24, 2015 6:03pm Feb 24, 2015 6:03pm
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Whenever I see a shooting star in the daily I know I missed the trade..
Hi Ray, I also cannot sleep I had a discussion about daily charts today - the signals they give and how to get it done trading higher TFs. What I found is that the daily and weekly charts give much better signals in price action. This should be no secret, but pretty crucial in my view. So let's say you have a pinbar there is a high probability to gain some pips from this compared to a H1 or so.

Then the argument was the following: If you scalp and risk 1 % and lose 100 pips on several trades you could as well put on a 100 pip SL with a bit more risk on a daily chart setup and still have a better probability to be profitable than with scalping the noise. The art and my ultimate goal is to do these trades while seeing the best intraday signals and reducing myself to only take the best trades. The question remains if trading on different time frames is possible and advisable for one person ... when I only traded daily charts I had my best results. Might go back to this for some time while still trying to become kind of an intraday trader.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #4,665
  • Feb 24, 2015 6:12pm Feb 24, 2015 6:12pm
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Hi Ray, I also cannot sleep I had a discussion about daily charts today - the signals they give and how to get it done trading higher TFs. What I found is that the daily and weekly charts give much better signals in price action. This should be no secret, but pretty crucial in my view. So let's say you have a pinbar there is a high probability to gain some pips from this compared to a H1 or so. Then the argument was the following: If you scalp and risk 1 % and lose 100 pips on several trades you could as well put on a 100 pip SL with...
There is truth behind what you said. I only use 2 TF's, its the daily which is fix and one intraday-timeframe which varied depeding on volatility. Go for it mate, find out what works for you. Pay attention to daily highs and lows based on NY Close.
  • #4,666
  • Feb 24, 2015 6:14pm Feb 24, 2015 6:14pm
Those who missed the short at 80ish; you may get any opportunity, check pic:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,667
  • Feb 24, 2015 6:20pm Feb 24, 2015 6:20pm
Quoting FX-Ray
Those who missed the short at 80ish; you may get any opportunity, check pic: {image}
I just applause you man.. very supportive information..

Happy Trades
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #4,668
  • Feb 24, 2015 6:22pm Feb 24, 2015 6:22pm
Quoting FX-Ray
Those who missed the short at 80ish; you may get any opportunity, check pic: {image}
Current situation, if 60/50 holds here we may see a test of those 2 levels above, it isnt any guarantee it will sell-off after these are printed, you may also get a great long opportunity, whatever happens, its probably gonna happens there.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: wait2.png Size: 290 KB
  • #4,669
  • Feb 24, 2015 6:24pm Feb 24, 2015 6:24pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} I just applause you man.. very supportive information.. Happy Trades
Thanks ata, I try to keep things real.
  • #4,670
  • Feb 24, 2015 6:26pm Feb 24, 2015 6:26pm
Last but not least, before I leave, something off-topic. This is a great track, those who love dubstep, you gonna love it:

Inserted Video


Raise volume to max, epic tune.

bbl
  • #4,671
  • Feb 24, 2015 6:28pm Feb 24, 2015 6:28pm
I think the penny may have dropped with those charts of yours Ray. cheers for your efforts.
  • #4,672
  • Feb 24, 2015 6:33pm Feb 24, 2015 6:33pm
usd/jpy breached the 118.80 fib support as well. If it stays below 118.80, expect the gbp/jpy to test lower supports.

Usd/jpy's next support is its previous weekly low (118.40/30), back when the gbp/jpy fell to 181.60. It's been tested as support 5 times before, so if it stays below 118.80, expect it to retest that.

I don't see 183.40/30 holding up for the gbp/jpy if we still have room to go down; 183.10/00 is what I'm targeting.

Probably going to see a bounce there-definitely won't be ignored, at least.
  • #4,673
  • Feb 24, 2015 7:33pm Feb 24, 2015 7:33pm
It's been in what appears to be a rising channel and thus far has returned to the 38.2 retracement of the move up from 181.6. Using a VERY loose interpretation of waves, any loss now of 183.5 would suggest short term negation of the up trend, bringing a return to channel centre at 183.3

Under 183.1/2, the 50% it heads for 182.8, the 61.8 retrace and any loss after that of 182.37 would threaten a return to channel bottom now at about 181.8/9
  • #4,674
  • Feb 25, 2015 12:42am Feb 25, 2015 12:42am
What a trend ! ............ sell limit 184.27, sl 184.57
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYDaily 25Feb15.png Size: 57 KB
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #4,675
  • Feb 25, 2015 12:44am Feb 25, 2015 12:44am
interesting

wait ... wait ..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,676
  • Edited 1:28am Feb 25, 2015 1:16am | Edited 1:28am
Weird price movement of gbp/jpy as London opens: gbpjpy rising, but eur/usd is spiking as well (usually they work opposite), and usd/jpy is still at its usual fib support.

I don't trust this spike. Something's off.

We also don't have a major news update for now...did BOE Carney's speech get leaked or something? Granted, we've a rise in the cable (gbp/usd)....
  • #4,677
  • Feb 25, 2015 1:26am Feb 25, 2015 1:26am
Quoting Vermillion
Weird price movement of gbp/jpy as London opens: gbpjpy rising, but eur/usd is spiking as well (usually they work opposite), and usd/jpy is still at its usual fib support. I don't trust this spike. Something's off. We also don't have a major news update for now...did BOE Carney's speech get leaked or something?
I don't see anything strange in it. It was a small push up to the central pivot in line with momentum, which at present is up. i think we range a bit now or fall back before moving higher, but there's Carney of course, so we'll have to see.
  • #4,678
  • Feb 25, 2015 1:29am Feb 25, 2015 1:29am
Quoting cat
{quote} I don't see anything strange in it. It was a small push up to the central pivot in line with momentum, which at present is up. i think we range a bit now or fall back before moving higher, but there's Carney of course, so we'll have to see.
Funny thing is that the geppy's sister pair, the usd/jpy, pretty much hasn't moved after the initial spike was rejected back down. I think its a gbp vs usd issue.

the problem is that the current momentum doesn't really match with the usual indicators for the gbp/jpy to be a natural bullish one. That's my issue. And these currency pair correlations are very strong indicators.

Eur/usd short waiting at 1.14
  • #4,679
  • Feb 25, 2015 1:33am Feb 25, 2015 1:33am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Funny thing is that the geppy's sister pair, the usd/jpy, pretty much hasn't moved after the initial spike was rejected back down. I think its a gbp vs usd issue. the problem is that the current momentum doesn't really match with the usual indicators for the gbp/jpy to be a natural bullish one. That's my issue.
perhaps, but I only ever look at the pair that I'm trading, as my charts tell me everything I want to know. I think once you start trying to second guess what a pair should be doing because another related pair is doing something else, it is a distraction, but that's only my personal opinion.
  • #4,680
  • Feb 25, 2015 1:46am Feb 25, 2015 1:46am
Looks like its heading for R1 pre-London open. It's just approaching the 61.8% as I type, with the 76.4% just below R1.
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