Very well said palabara!
..
I've figured out why so many people lose money in Forex
- #102
- Feb 24, 2015 12:47pm Feb 24, 2015 12:47pm
- Joined Jan 2005 | Status: ~ Noblesse Oblige ~ | 1,663 Posts
Very well said palabara!
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
- #103
- Feb 24, 2015 1:13pm Feb 24, 2015 1:13pm
- Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Trader | 25,480 Posts
{quote} this is all I do, wlel this and I have my 3D art hobby, but I do that just for fun, I also study science, and chemistry but that's so I can keep
Great post! The 3D art as well as other studies caught my eye too. 
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
- #105
- Feb 24, 2015 2:55pm Feb 24, 2015 2:55pm
- Joined Jan 2005 | Status: ~ Noblesse Oblige ~ | 1,663 Posts
{quote}
I am on deviant art. a lot of my stuff is R rated lol, but I got into it because its amazing how much realism you can create in 3D work and started learning that, and its very involved to get really high realism need to learn how to manipulate light via this software like Poser and 3DS Max and I also use Octane. Its just fun to work on a project like that, and seeing as this gives me an ability to be creative by utilizing technology. I'll post one of my 3D creations on here which is not R rated. This is my Original Character from Starwars, a work in progress. A Zabrak 
Darth Mekra
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
- #106
- Feb 24, 2015 3:15pm Feb 24, 2015 3:15pm
- Joined Jan 2005 | Status: ~ Noblesse Oblige ~ | 1,663 Posts
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
- #107
- Feb 24, 2015 3:34pm Feb 24, 2015 3:34pm
{quote} Thanks
- #109
- Feb 24, 2015 4:04pm Feb 24, 2015 4:04pm
- Joined Jan 2005 | Status: ~ Noblesse Oblige ~ | 1,663 Posts
I've got some time before class. I'll post another thing about systems. I am a career college student.. (I've have a lot of different things under my belt.. psychology, business, finances and Sciences Biology and Chemistry) 6 years in college and going woot woot Considering I never finished high school its quite impressive. Different story lol. Systems.. Okay a lot of people adopt systems because they don't know where to start in building their own. The day I built my own system was after the day I stopped modifying other peoples systems its like back to my suit example.. The day after I said I want my own custom tailored suit. So I was like well where do I start? How do I build something that fits me from scratch.. So few things.. First what kind of trader are you? Me.. I am swing trader, I can't day trade, I started as day trader but I didn't like it. Its to high pace for me, I am person that needs time to digest things, I need time to sit and think and understand then do the aha and oh wait okay aha now.. and in day trading its all to fast for me. One thing is I like slow pace, and big space! So slow and big lol a way to describe me. Okay so once I've established that point, I need I need higher time frames to trade.. I'm not going to swing trade on 5M chart.. nor look for trades on 5 MN chart. and 1H chart for me had to much noise can't read anything.. so I said okay what about 4H Time frame. and it was perfect.. I only Use 4H and 8H Time frames. I don't look at the daily, I don't look at the 1H I only Look at 4H and 8H why 8H.. sometimes 4H have to much noise. So now you took your 1st to creating a system you've found your foundation this is where all the action will take place.. 2nd step is to use "tools" so tools can be anything and everything.. but you need to distinguish your tools. What does that mean? it means you won't use a hammer where you need a screw driver, and you wont try to screw something you need to saw eh eh lol.. but you get it, most traders don't understand the tools that they are using. so you need to study them.. so starting by tools that to go on your main chart.. personally I use as entry.. so I use a tool that tells me where to enter.. but that's just a partial step.. tools that are on main charts are like moving averages and candles and other various things and secondary tools are like oscillators they are not on your main chart but they "take market readings" like god.. I don't know.. MACD.. RSI etc.. this type of tools being able to understand distinguish them is your next step.. so then you come into a problem.. this tools are "lagging" most technical indicators are.. some are non lagging but then you have another problem well then they will give you to many false signals so your stuck with slow signals or false signals so how do you find the middle ground.. you need to problem solve.. you need to combine tools that use fast and slow.. and meet in the middle then add extra coating or I call it filters to filter the false trades from non-false trades.. so how do you do that? you back-test! foundation to trading is back testing.. people tend to think "what happened in the past" is irrelevant. The market runs on patterns, and I know that people will debate this, I don't care.. I've been trading collecting and analyzing data for years.. the market runs on patterns! this patterns tend to "shift" a shift happens when the price moves away distinguishably like.. Euro dropping from 1.40 to 1.13 is a shift.. and markets tend to expand and contract in their range of trading so for example.. GBP/JPY for those who have been around used to trade on average 600 pips per day.. and then it dropped to 100 pips per day and even if that and now its back to 200-250 pips per day average.. so GBP/JPY has STRONGLY contracted and then Expanded.. so what does all of that mean? It means how much Drawdown will I suffer per trade is based on the currencies volatility. A lot of people put Stoplosses because it seems like a good number other people don't use stoplosses at all.. but if you have data infront of you -- could see that if I had my stoploss at 135 pips.. then in the last 4 years to current date out of 100 trades it would only get hit 40 times.. so 60 times it wouldn't get hit.. knowing that gives you an idea I will use this stoploss okay what about profit? so same thing.. how much on average does it go up or down or whatever so you say from this entry point it went this high this low etc.. calculate that and say okay 165 pips Take profit.. okay so if I had 55 trades that hit.. 165 and 45 trades that hit.. so we do the math.. 40 x 135 = 5400 loss 60 x 165 = 9900 so total net gain is 4500 pips okay so I said 4 years.. lets average that.. 4500 divide by 48.. we dividing the net gain.. from 4 years.. that averages to 93.75 pips per month.. for 1 currency! generalizing and say 10 currencies. so multiple it 93.75 x 10 = 937.50 pips per month on average.. is it doable? yes it is. I've been doing it for 3 years! And this is not "hypothetical" I spend more time on Excel then I do on the platform when all my birdies line up, I take the trade. I record all the data.. The trades were originally back tested to form this SL and TP are under EXACT same market conditions as real trades so how do you do it. In my case.. I open trades RIGHT ON THE DOT at the CANDLE open their is a variation of error and commission and everything can be calculated and deduced. Every variable.. so what about the fundamentals? Recall that ALL previous fundamentals were already previously recorded into the chart.. predicting fundamentals is impossible because a reaction don't mimic. Market decides based on reaction at the time of the event so saying it will go 100 pips is NOT scientific so instead. I don't rely on it, fundamentals do what they always did and it is provide catalyst and for those who don't know what a catalyst it means "speed something up" so it does not in any way shape or form effect the trade because if the trade is going to get stopped out, so be it, if its going to get speed up to its take profit so be it, but we need that volatility because without it there is no where to go.. can't make money without movement. Its just not something we can measure, but if approaching Forex from A a business B a Scientific Method. I.E forma hypothesis, test it, replicate it, and do it all over again it can be done. Collect Data, ask questions, problem solve! This things take a lot of time and effort, but at the end you have a custom made fit system to your style ability trading etc.. Its your creation you know everything about it because you've spit it out of your brain! You know if its right or wrong or even how to fix it.
Considering I never finished high school its quite impressive. Different story lol. Systems.. Okay a lot of people adopt systems because they don't know where to start in building their own. The day I built my own system was after the day I stopped modifying other peoples systems its like back to my suit example.. The day after I said I want my own custom tailored suit. So I was like well where do I start? How do I build something that fits me from scratch.. So few things.. First what kind of trader are you? Me.. I am swing trader, I can't day trade, I started as day trader but I didn't like it. Its to high pace for me, I am person that needs time to digest things, I need time to sit and think and understand then do the aha and oh wait okay aha now.. and in day trading its all to fast for me. One thing is I like slow pace, and big space! So slow and big lol a way to describe me. Okay so once I've established that point, I need I need higher time frames to trade.. I'm not going to swing trade on 5M chart.. nor look for trades on 5 MN chart. and 1H chart for me had to much noise can't read anything.. so I said okay what about 4H Time frame. and it was perfect.. I only Use 4H and 8H Time frames. I don't look at the daily, I don't look at the 1H I only Look at 4H and 8H why 8H.. sometimes 4H have to much noise. So now you took your 1st to creating a system you've found your foundation this is where all the action will take place.. 2nd step is to use "tools" so tools can be anything and everything.. but you need to distinguish your tools. What does that mean? it means you won't use a hammer where you need a screw driver, and you wont try to screw something you need to saw eh eh lol.. but you get it, most traders don't understand the tools that they are using. so you need to study them.. so starting by tools that to go on your main chart.. personally I use as entry.. so I use a tool that tells me where to enter.. but that's just a partial step.. tools that are on main charts are like moving averages and candles and other various things and secondary tools are like oscillators they are not on your main chart but they "take market readings" like god.. I don't know.. MACD.. RSI etc.. this type of tools being able to understand distinguish them is your next step.. so then you come into a problem.. this tools are "lagging" most technical indicators are.. some are non lagging but then you have another problem well then they will give you to many false signals so your stuck with slow signals or false signals so how do you find the middle ground.. you need to problem solve.. you need to combine tools that use fast and slow.. and meet in the middle then add extra coating or I call it filters to filter the false trades from non-false trades.. so how do you do that? you back-test! foundation to trading is back testing.. people tend to think "what happened in the past" is irrelevant. The market runs on patterns, and I know that people will debate this, I don't care.. I've been trading collecting and analyzing data for years.. the market runs on patterns! this patterns tend to "shift" a shift happens when the price moves away distinguishably like.. Euro dropping from 1.40 to 1.13 is a shift.. and markets tend to expand and contract in their range of trading so for example.. GBP/JPY for those who have been around used to trade on average 600 pips per day.. and then it dropped to 100 pips per day and even if that and now its back to 200-250 pips per day average.. so GBP/JPY has STRONGLY contracted and then Expanded.. so what does all of that mean? It means how much Drawdown will I suffer per trade is based on the currencies volatility. A lot of people put Stoplosses because it seems like a good number other people don't use stoplosses at all.. but if you have data infront of you -- could see that if I had my stoploss at 135 pips.. then in the last 4 years to current date out of 100 trades it would only get hit 40 times.. so 60 times it wouldn't get hit.. knowing that gives you an idea I will use this stoploss okay what about profit? so same thing.. how much on average does it go up or down or whatever so you say from this entry point it went this high this low etc.. calculate that and say okay 165 pips Take profit.. okay so if I had 55 trades that hit.. 165 and 45 trades that hit.. so we do the math.. 40 x 135 = 5400 loss 60 x 165 = 9900 so total net gain is 4500 pips okay so I said 4 years.. lets average that.. 4500 divide by 48.. we dividing the net gain.. from 4 years.. that averages to 93.75 pips per month.. for 1 currency! generalizing and say 10 currencies. so multiple it 93.75 x 10 = 937.50 pips per month on average.. is it doable? yes it is. I've been doing it for 3 years! And this is not "hypothetical" I spend more time on Excel then I do on the platform when all my birdies line up, I take the trade. I record all the data.. The trades were originally back tested to form this SL and TP are under EXACT same market conditions as real trades so how do you do it. In my case.. I open trades RIGHT ON THE DOT at the CANDLE open their is a variation of error and commission and everything can be calculated and deduced. Every variable.. so what about the fundamentals? Recall that ALL previous fundamentals were already previously recorded into the chart.. predicting fundamentals is impossible because a reaction don't mimic. Market decides based on reaction at the time of the event so saying it will go 100 pips is NOT scientific so instead. I don't rely on it, fundamentals do what they always did and it is provide catalyst and for those who don't know what a catalyst it means "speed something up" so it does not in any way shape or form effect the trade because if the trade is going to get stopped out, so be it, if its going to get speed up to its take profit so be it, but we need that volatility because without it there is no where to go.. can't make money without movement. Its just not something we can measure, but if approaching Forex from A a business B a Scientific Method. I.E forma hypothesis, test it, replicate it, and do it all over again it can be done. Collect Data, ask questions, problem solve! This things take a lot of time and effort, but at the end you have a custom made fit system to your style ability trading etc.. Its your creation you know everything about it because you've spit it out of your brain! You know if its right or wrong or even how to fix it.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
- #110
- Feb 24, 2015 4:07pm Feb 24, 2015 4:07pm
- Joined Jan 2005 | Status: ~ Noblesse Oblige ~ | 1,663 Posts
{quote} Good Art!!!
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
{quote} I was simply responding to your false accusation of me being nave. No matter, when you know how to trade, you'll see. Best wishes to you.
Regarding the whole subject of the thread I believe that a radical understanding of probability theory and the essence of the mathematical edge concept, will automatically force your brain to adopt proper money management, and can dramatically change ones discipline because it basically contextualizes the whole speculative activity and it s potentials. It doesn't guarantee you'll find the edge in a profitable system, but at least it will prevent you from ever investing real money in systems that have no substantial proof that they can be profitable long term. I believe and hope it can reduce the financial damages the majority of retail traders experience in the long run.
As Taleb says: "there is a world in which the habit of mistaking luck for skill is most prevalent... and that is the world of trading." He says that we might consider trading strategies or traders to be excelent even though 99% of their past performance is attributable to chance and chance alone. He is not refering just to retail world.
From wikipedia:
"Taleb's first non-technical book, Fooled by Randomness, about the underestimation of the role of randomness in life, was selected by Fortune as one of the smartest 75 books known"
- #112
- Feb 24, 2015 5:23pm Feb 24, 2015 5:23pm
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Pip Seer | 1,299 Posts
Pip what you see; See what you pip!
- #113
- Feb 24, 2015 6:30pm Feb 24, 2015 6:30pm
- Joined Jan 2005 | Status: ~ Noblesse Oblige ~ | 1,663 Posts
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
- #119
- Feb 24, 2015 9:26pm Feb 24, 2015 9:26pm
- Joined Jan 2005 | Status: ~ Noblesse Oblige ~ | 1,663 Posts
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.