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  • #5,021
  • Feb 8, 2015 3:53pm Feb 8, 2015 3:53pm
audusd - could have more downside in store
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #5,022
  • Feb 12, 2015 3:05pm Feb 12, 2015 3:05pm
Dollar Index

Took it on the chin in today's trading. There was news that Euroland was 'giving' Greece 5 billion euros to tide them over till the end of negotiations. So there are no defaults/euro exit in sight. Hence the euro (about 50% of the dollar index) did a dance to the upside today. I am still bearish the euro however as we know things do not go up or down in absolute straight lines (except when caused by SNB)
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #5,023
  • Feb 14, 2015 7:51am Feb 14, 2015 7:51am
Hey Olu,

nice thread with a lots of trading ideas to discuss. Really like it and will follow you because I have nearly the same ideas of trading the markets.
Trading daily swings in strong trends and let the profit run :-)

You are doing a lot of elliot wave. Did it work for you and you are making money out of it?
Read a lot about it e.g. "Mastering Elliot Wave" by Glenn Neely but I always think it so unspecific and difficult to count and interpret the waves right.
What are your experiences with the method?

Maybe I will post some ideas in your thread to discuss.
  • #5,024
  • Feb 15, 2015 2:57pm Feb 15, 2015 2:57pm
Quoting fx4living
Hey Olu, nice thread with a lots of trading ideas to discuss. Really like it and will follow you because I have nearly the same ideas of trading the markets. Trading daily swings in strong trends and let the profit run :-) You are doing a lot of elliot wave. Did it work for you and you are making money out of it? Read a lot about it e.g. "Mastering Elliot Wave" by Glenn Neely but I always think it so unspecific and difficult to count and interpret the waves right. What are your experiences with the method? Maybe I will post some ideas in your thread...

Hi Fx4Living

Thanks for visiting the thread and your comments. I do use EW but not in the strictest sense. I am generally a trend follower. I use it in the basic sense of 5 waves up and 3 waves down. Where this principle align with my sell retracement in a downtrend and hang on or buy pullbacks in an uptrend and hang on I will take the trade. I have seen some counts all over the place which are complicated enough to get you reaching for Paracetamol (acetaminophen). Those ones I have nothing to do with them. For me if the count is not simple enough to be hitting one in the face its not for me.

I look forward to your posts. Wish us both (and all other readers) loads of pips

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #5,025
  • Feb 16, 2015 6:47pm Feb 16, 2015 6:47pm
EurJpy daily chart

If this plays out correctly the origin of the bear flag should be taken out
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #5,026
  • Feb 17, 2015 5:05pm Feb 17, 2015 5:05pm
Hey Olu,

i thought about the same idea of shorting the Eur-JPY. The consolidation area is good for a shift back in the trend because of some support/resist in the area of 136, the price near the EMA's and an overbought situation.
But I was waiting for a confirmation because i often saw the market making another dip to the upside.
Therefore I draw my trendline in a diffrent way and was waiting for break of the trendline in H1.

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  • #5,027
  • Feb 17, 2015 5:44pm Feb 17, 2015 5:44pm
Quoting fx4living
Hey Olu, i thought about the same idea of shorting the Eur-JPY. The consolidation area is good for a shift back in the trend because of some support/resist in the area of 136, the price near the EMA's and an overbought situation. But I was waiting for a confirmation because i often saw the market making another dip to the upside. Therefore I draw my trendline in a diffrent way and was waiting for break of the trendline in H1. {image}{image}
I hear you fx4living and well done for avoiding this loss. there are always different angles to seeing the markets. I thought all the Ts were crossed ant the i's were dotted

Thanks eurjpy. Just as you see a good trading idea that ticks all the boxes and behaves accordingly and just as one posts the trading idea price decides to do a false breakdown and then go the other way. Thanks a lot (lol). By the way if 136.60 is broken this idea as it stands is wrong
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #5,028
  • Edited 12:46pm Feb 18, 2015 12:32pm | Edited 12:46pm
Hey Olu,

don't know if i would have saved money because my stop would nearly the same as yours. I would have placed it nearly 10 pips above the last high. Until know it is not broken ;-)
I guess it is always a thin path. There are only two ways of trading the swings:

1.) You short the market in a resistance area and after some weakness. Hopefully it is the correction high and the market then goes down. So you anticipate the price action.
+ Adavantage: your are getting a better entry and lower risk (because the SL above the high is not so far away)
- Disadvantage: Probability of a success is lower than with confirmation

2.) You short the market after confirmation (breaking consolidation trend line)
+ Advantage: better chance of success
- disadvantage: worse entry and higher risk

As you said it depends all on individual trading style. I mix it up a bit and sometimes i anticipate and sometimes i wait for confirmation.


P.S.: I was catched in EUR/GBP. I had build up three short positions (from the 9th Feb on) and closed it yesterday with a little win on the big upward movement of the euro. Big buyers drove the euro up against all currencies. Useless to add that Eur/GBP broke the resistance today after GBP news and the trade would have been a big winner today :-(((
  • #5,029
  • Feb 21, 2015 9:14am Feb 21, 2015 9:14am
May Wheat - I am bearish
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #5,030
  • Feb 21, 2015 9:15am Feb 21, 2015 9:15am
Bullish UsdCad
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #5,031
  • Feb 21, 2015 9:20am Feb 21, 2015 9:20am
NzdUsd bearish
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #5,032
  • Feb 22, 2015 3:11am Feb 22, 2015 3:11am
Quoting Olu
NzdUsd bearish {image}
I am wary of any spikes upwards to 61.8 before heading lower. But I have been selling this for a week now.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #5,033
  • Feb 22, 2015 12:35pm Feb 22, 2015 12:35pm
Hey Olu,

you placed a kind of spyware on may pc? ;-)

I was selling the white sugar cfd and the wheat cfd because I think the downtrend is still intact and the consolidation is over now.

Therefore I am waiting for good entry signals in:
soybean, -meal, -oil, UK Gilt, arabica coffe, loonie, s&p500, Dax and crude oil (brent and wti long or short after breakout channel/Triangle)

Let the hunt beginn :-)
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  • #5,034
  • Feb 22, 2015 1:44pm Feb 22, 2015 1:44pm
Quoting aeternum
{quote} I am wary of any spikes upwards to 61.8 before heading lower. But I have been selling this for a week now.
Thanks A for your reply. And yes you are very correct to say that this pair can spike up. I was expecting the breakdown below 7500 and acceleration to the downside last week but instead it spent a good bit of time going up (Thursday/Friday). It is the fib reversal and candle analysis that is keeping this idea for me
Thanks
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #5,035
  • Feb 22, 2015 1:49pm Feb 22, 2015 1:49pm
Quoting fx4living
Hey Olu, you placed a kind of spyware on may pc? ;-) I was selling the white sugar cfd and the wheat cfd because I think the downtrend is still intact and the consolidation is over now. Therefore I am waiting for good entry signals in: soybean, -meal, -oil, UK Gilt, arabica coffe, loonie, s&p500, Dax and crude oil (brent and wti long or short after breakout channel/Triangle) Let the hunt beginn :-){image}

That spyware is working just fine I was going to add sugar to the list as well. It appears the $ wants to re-assert its strength and if this happens it would could smack all the commodities down. Let's see what monday brings.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #5,036
  • Feb 23, 2015 6:07am Feb 23, 2015 6:07am
Quoting Olu
{quote} Thanks A for your reply. And yes you are very correct to say that this pair can spike up. I was expecting the breakdown below 7500 and acceleration to the downside last week but instead it spent a good bit of time going up (Thursday/Friday). It is the fib reversal and candle analysis that is keeping this idea for me Thanks
Awesome call Olu. I also managed to get out of my positions before it went back higher. Won't be shorting this pair for a while now. The interest is killing me.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #5,037
  • Feb 23, 2015 2:37pm Feb 23, 2015 2:37pm
Quoting aeternum
{quote} Awesome call Olu. I also managed to get out of my positions before it went back higher. Won't be shorting this pair for a while now. The interest is killing me.
thanks for your comments. I too manages to get out with a profit before the upmove. I cant guarantee I will not be reselling though...
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #5,038
  • Feb 24, 2015 4:29am Feb 24, 2015 4:29am
Quoting Olu
{quote} thanks for your comments. I too manages to get out with a profit before the upmove. I cant guarantee I will not be reselling though...
Seems like the train left without you though..
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #5,039
  • Feb 24, 2015 7:18am Feb 24, 2015 7:18am
Quoting aeternum
{quote} Seems like the train left without you though..
on this occasion it did not as I shorted the audusd before its fall.
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #5,040
  • Feb 24, 2015 9:34am Feb 24, 2015 9:34am
Quoting Olu
{quote} on this occasion it did not as I shorted the audusd before its fall.
NZDUSD making huge moves from USD news though. Also have NZD news coming up in about 8 hours. Wonder how its going to affect NZD pairs.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
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