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  • #7,241
  • Feb 17, 2015 3:17pm Feb 17, 2015 3:17pm
Quoting The Fool
multiple jabs down to SPY $200 are hardening that level...get past Greece & start the ECB QE party and we might not touch that again for many moons...
or do you think we might actually see US indices suffer at the expense of new life in Eurozone ones...??
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,242
  • Edited 7:00pm Feb 17, 2015 6:34pm | Edited 7:00pm
On the last FOMC mtg @ 1/28, the SnP dropped 40 pts! Are we due for an echo of that tomorrow?

Look at the Feb SPY $207/$207.5 bear put vertical, can get in for $0.06 or lower....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,243
  • Feb 17, 2015 11:43pm Feb 17, 2015 11:43pm
long dated otm vertical spreads can be traded to catch a trend for good r:r w/ defined risk, the b/e point is close to the start point but moves away as you get closer to expiry.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-17_USO.png Size: 54 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,244
  • Feb 18, 2015 6:14am Feb 18, 2015 6:14am
hoping to do another vertical call spread on SPY long 212 and write 212.50 for 6c, yesterdays combination was a close of 7c, once I see positive momentum in spy I'm in.
Close was 210.11 as below

SPY Feb 2015 212.000 call (SPY150220C00212000)
-OPR
0.22 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.10(32.26%) 17 Feb 21:14

SPY Feb 2015 212.500 call (SPY150220C00212500)
-OPR
0.15 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.11(45.83%) 17 Feb 21:09

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
-NYSEArca
210.11 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.33(0.16%) 17 Feb 21:00
|Pre-Market : 210.00 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.11 (0.05%) 12:07 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #7,245
  • Feb 18, 2015 6:18am Feb 18, 2015 6:18am
If the spy trades below 209.30 then I will do a vertical put spread instead so will wait for the first hours action before making a final decision
  • #7,246
  • Feb 18, 2015 10:13am Feb 18, 2015 10:13am
Quoting The Fool
On the last FOMC mtg @ 1/28, the SnP dropped 40 pts! Are we due for an echo of that tomorrow? Look at the Feb SPY $207/$207.5 bear put vertical, can get in for $0.06 or lower....
$208/$207.5 mid now $0.08, need about a dollar drop to break even, m/l, depending on your trade size...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-18_SPY.png Size: 45 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,247
  • Feb 18, 2015 10:54am Feb 18, 2015 10:54am
Pick Europe’s equities over US: Goldman’s Oppenheimer

no-brainer...

Billionaire David Tepper Ditches Apple Inc. (AAPL), Facebook Inc (FB), Citigroup Inc (C), CBS Corporation (CBS), and Halliburton Company (HAL): What’s Going On?

OMG! Somebody actually sells at resistance? O man...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,248
  • Feb 18, 2015 11:02am Feb 18, 2015 11:02am
Quoting The Fool
On the last FOMC mtg @ 1/28, the SnP dropped 40 pts! Are we due for an echo of that tomorrow? Look at the Feb SPY $207/$207.5 bear put vertical, can get in for $0.06 or lower....
Right to test the breakout around 2050... I like, I like.... BWAHAHAHAHA... yeah, will see soon enough.


Add-on
The only difference is that last time we had 3 consecutive down days prior to the FOMC... and now we have consolidation.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,249
  • Feb 18, 2015 11:10am Feb 18, 2015 11:10am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Right to test the breakout around 2050... I like, I like.... BWAHAHAHAHA... yeah, will see soon enough.
I took that $208/$207.5 put vertical for $0.08, not risking a ton
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,250
  • Feb 18, 2015 11:19am Feb 18, 2015 11:19am
Quoting StrayDog
OMG! Somebody actually sells at resistance? O man...
Maybe Tepper sold his FB after getting tired of looking at it range +/- a few bucks around $75 since last Summer. FB IVR @ 4%....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,251
  • Feb 18, 2015 11:23am Feb 18, 2015 11:23am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Maybe Tepper sold his FB after getting tired of looking at it range +/- a few bucks around $75 since last Summer. FB IVR @ 4%....
Yeah imagine doing Iron Condors all that time, or 70/72.50 bullish put spreads... free money
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,252
  • Feb 18, 2015 11:36am Feb 18, 2015 11:36am
ya but low iv means cheap options, good time to look at cheap calendars. Put the calendars out into April to catch the next iv run-up b4 the next ER
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-18_fb.png Size: 53 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,253
  • Feb 18, 2015 11:58am Feb 18, 2015 11:58am
SPY positions in one account. The Feb vertical is bet on a drop, nothing to salvage if I'm wrong. The Feb diagonal is right on the death slide dance: b/e on Friday is $210.10. maxP is $208.45. Big P/L changes over the last 3 days in any diagonal, this one no different, I will try to hang in. The Mar diag b/e upside is $213, I have some breathing room & time to sweat other trades...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-18_spy2.png Size: 11 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,254
  • Feb 18, 2015 12:34pm Feb 18, 2015 12:34pm
I may get out of US stocks: Nobel-winner Shiller

"I'm thinking about getting out of the United States somewhat. Europe is so much cheaper."

Yeah, no shit. So it takes a Nobel prize winner to tell that valuations is Europe is LOWER, that EUR is cheap, that Europe have QE.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,255
  • Feb 18, 2015 12:38pm Feb 18, 2015 12:38pm
Quoting StrayDog
I may get out of US stocks: Nobel-winner Shiller "I'm thinking about getting out of the United States somewhat. Europe is so much cheaper." Yeah, no shit. So it takes a Nobel prize winner to tell that valuations is Europe is LOWER, that EUR is cheap, that Europe have QE.
I wish there were something similar to SPY for European indices. Big question for me now is whether ECB printing will depress the EUR much. I hear arguments either way, but I am leaning toward thinking EUR will not fall much more....whaddaya think?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,256
  • Feb 18, 2015 12:47pm Feb 18, 2015 12:47pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I wish there were something similar to SPY for European indices. Big question for me now is whether ECB printing will depress the EUR much. I hear arguments either way, but I am leaning toward thinking EUR will not fall much more....whaddaya think?
How about FEZ...
https://www.spdrs.com/product/fund.seam?ticker=FEZ
It tracks EURO STOXX 50 index

or FEU
https://www.spdrs.com/product/fund.seam?ticker=FEU
Add-on - seems that this one don't have options...

About EUR, I don't think we will see parity with USD... maybe if SHTF in Greek drama big way... but what is the probability of that?

No fear in US Markets... nobody is selling prior to FOMC...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,257
  • Feb 18, 2015 1:10pm Feb 18, 2015 1:10pm
Gold is going up fast... indices going up also.

"no rush" to... blah blah...

- "considerable time"
- "patient"
- "no rush"

....
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,258
  • Feb 18, 2015 1:12pm Feb 18, 2015 1:12pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I took that $208/$207.5 put vertical for $0.08, not risking a ton
killed this trade for $0.06 credit, no confidence we could see enough drop to profit
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,259
  • Feb 18, 2015 1:16pm Feb 18, 2015 1:16pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} How about FEZ......
FEZ obviously is no SPY - I may be better off hunting thru the individual names
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,260
  • Edited 2:25pm Feb 18, 2015 2:06pm | Edited 2:25pm
Quoting StrayDog
... About EUR, I don't think we will see parity with USD... maybe if SHTF in Greek drama big way... but what is the probability of that? No fear in US Markets... nobody is selling prior to FOMC...
It doesn't appear there's anything Greece can do to get kicked out of the EMU. I think Schaeuble is putting together a nice muffin basket to send to Varoufakis, just to show he cares. Better put some schnitzel in there, too...

Meanwhile, hyperdovish Yellen Fed will keep rates low forever....if they do come out of left field and put on a 0.10% fund rate hike in June, it will be enough to crash the US markets 20%, possibly even end life as we know it.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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