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Let's Trade Options

  • #7,221
  • Feb 14, 2015 11:18am Feb 14, 2015 11:18am
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...s-door-options
"Take puts on the S&P 500, which pay off when the index falls. Traders have snapped up so many of the bearish contracts that their cost relative to bullish ones has jumped to the highest level since at least 2006."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,222
  • Feb 14, 2015 11:47am Feb 14, 2015 11:47am
cheap calls? what's not to like about that? JC says we are on the verge of a speculative phase that will take the Nasdaq > 6,000! Heavy outflows from UST's, ECB's massive QE about to launch, only the usual dark clouds can spoil the parade. (Greece, Russia, terrorism, etc...) - oh, right, and the Fed - is anybody afraid of hyperdove Fed anymore? FOMC minutes coming Wed, maybe a clue there...

http://www.simpleroptions.com/public...000c5fdb4e220b
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,223
  • Feb 14, 2015 11:54pm Feb 14, 2015 11:54pm
Quoting The Fool
cheap calls? what's not to like about that?
expensive puts ok, too if you're selling em. I wonder if the markets will blink at the news of fresh jihadi violence in the streets of Europe?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,224
  • Feb 15, 2015 7:37pm Feb 15, 2015 7:37pm
Quoting The Fool
Here's the TLT diagonal I am in for next weeks expiry, it may have a chance of good return if TLT will put up a green candle or two in the next week. The free day next Monday helps me...
free day helps me if /ZB prints something green, but it's red in early Asia....free day kills me if futures are gonna gap down...small loss Friday close could open big loss on Tuesday. Not looking too good, /ES a little off helps me, though....fml I should just try to relax...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,225
  • Feb 16, 2015 8:19am Feb 16, 2015 8:19am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} thanks, these weekly verticals are great strategy when they work. Just one per month will change ones bank balance
Great job CG. Nice example of breakout cashing in. Should have looked at NQ earlier, it was leading the way for other indices...

Since there is a holiday, I am going to look at all 30 stocks that are DAX components, there could be interesting stuff there.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,226
  • Feb 16, 2015 12:23pm Feb 16, 2015 12:23pm
Greek angst to close out the thin day, should give me what I need short-term, some pullback in US equities and flow back into UST's - a bounce for TLT to start Tuesday.

Since "everyone" believes there "has to" be a "deal" to keep Greece in the European "Union" - I () wonder if somehow "everyone" can not be wrong, and tshtf?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,227
  • Feb 16, 2015 12:39pm Feb 16, 2015 12:39pm
Quoting The Fool
Greek angst to close out the thin day, should give me what I need short-term, some pullback in US equities and flow back into UST's - a bounce for TLT to start Tuesday. Since "everyone" believes there "has to" be a "deal" to keep Greece in the European "Union" - I () wonder if somehow "everyone" can not be wrong, and tshtf?
Thats quantum physics mate. Everything is possible .

However, Greece can not leave Eurozone, because currently very very unstable - mainly due to fractional banking. Should Greece leave, it is gonna create huge hole in Target 2 system, say few hundred Bn of Eur, which come into account mostly Germans. So in essence European leaders have space to cover Greece up to 200Bn no problem, and is still better for them compared to Greece departure.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,228
  • Feb 16, 2015 12:44pm Feb 16, 2015 12:44pm
..
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Well dunno how much they exactly pulled out of TARGET2 system, but last I ve heard PIGS got 1Tr combined of account deficit. Suppose 150Bn of those is from Greeks, bailout looks a bit cheaper than exit. Edit: Ha, found it, seems it is @100Bn. Poor Germans 1 more edit: Thanks to this beautifull chart come to my professor on Financial stability - Mr. Brůna {image}
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,229
  • Feb 16, 2015 12:44pm Feb 16, 2015 12:44pm
a shit sandwich, anyway you slice it. Beer in Germany very good though, helps to wash it down...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,230
  • Feb 16, 2015 10:09pm Feb 16, 2015 10:09pm
easy winner if the oil rally finds legs, 20-lot risks $140 to make >$500 @ USO > $25.35 (on 3/20), maxP $1,800...b/e @ Apr expiry $25.40
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,231
  • Feb 16, 2015 10:35pm Feb 16, 2015 10:35pm
index trades up in the air until the future of the eurozone is settled
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,232
  • Feb 16, 2015 11:53pm Feb 16, 2015 11:53pm
SPY put fly for Mar, $200/196/192, b/e $202, 10/20 risks $190 for maxP >$2,250
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,233
  • Feb 17, 2015 11:07am Feb 17, 2015 11:07am
AMZN... time to fade the move?

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Enough premium even in Feb expiry options, for $2.5 wide spreads... IVR low. So, bearish call spread like Feb 380/382.50 for $0.60-0.70 CR, or since vol is low, maybe debit put spread like 370/367.50... or combo of both? Or sell 380 call or for greater POP - sell 382.5 call, both trades with just selling calls are margin heavy and margin inefficient, but high POP.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,234
  • Feb 17, 2015 11:31am Feb 17, 2015 11:31am
VIX jumped almost 10% today... and SPX didn't move at all.

So, "they" are holding long positions, but hedging heavily into the FOMC (and Greece, Ukraine, blah, blah, lack of mustard at control point 57 and so on...)

At least that is my understanding of it.

Could we see just a small pullback, you now, for fun, like 10 points of the mighty SnP? Or we MUST buy every 3 point dip... (Because you know, if this breakout just explode, you will MISS it... )
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,235
  • Feb 17, 2015 12:55pm Feb 17, 2015 12:55pm
Quoting StrayDog
Could we see just a small pullback, you now, for fun, like 10 points of the mighty SnP? Or we MUST buy every 3 point dip... (Because you know, if this breakout just explode, you will MISS it... )
dump out of UST's has been relentless,... cash flow into equities, the new safe haven. Stocks to be supported at all costs. Let Greece burn, the party will go on forever!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,236
  • Feb 17, 2015 1:20pm Feb 17, 2015 1:20pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} dump out of UST's has been relentless,... cash flow into equities, the new safe haven. Stocks to be supported at all costs. Let Greece burn, the party will go on forever!
Yep... people were burning cash trying to short bonds for 1.5 - 2 yrs... but nothing. I don't trade them, don't follow TLT or nothing, BUT ... here is the TLT Weekly chart:

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What a place for short that WAS... WAS being the important word. As I said, I don't trade it, but hey, if you don't short the mofo on 3rd touch of weekly trend line, then where exactly would you short it? Well, can't trade everything. Just, nice example, so there is a chart... for archive.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,237
  • Feb 17, 2015 2:04pm Feb 17, 2015 2:04pm
Yeah, well that one is burned into my brain. And I did short, near the top, but did not give myself enough room in a bear put diagonal, paid the price for that.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,238
  • Feb 17, 2015 2:14pm Feb 17, 2015 2:14pm
Diagonals are too tricky. I will try them but only one lots, sticking to credit spreads with occasional debit spreads.

And here is another "crazy" idea...

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Worried observer: But hey StrayDog, didn't Icahn said AAPL PT is like $200+ ? Man u are crazy...

Well yeah, but Feb 125/124 put spread is just $0.10... IF SHTF, THEN AAPL goes down, right?

Add-on
Bought a few of those Feb 125/124 put spreads for $0.12...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,239
  • Feb 17, 2015 2:36pm Feb 17, 2015 2:36pm
I'm in nothing new. Tried all day to get filled @ <$0.05 on a Apr USO $26/$27 bull call vertical. Tried at $0.03 and never closer than $0.04....

TLT trades have messed up my day....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,240
  • Feb 17, 2015 3:12pm Feb 17, 2015 3:12pm
multiple jabs down to SPY $200 are hardening that level...get past Greece & start the ECB QE party and we might not touch that again for many moons...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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