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  • #7,201
  • Feb 13, 2015 10:28am Feb 13, 2015 10:28am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} and UST's are falling off a cliff. A 2-week drop >$10 for TLT has only happened a couple times......barring bad news out of the Eurozone, I'd say we are on the way to SnP 2,150 to 2,200 in Q2, no prob {image}
And you are probably right. I will stick to my level of about 2140, but who really cares about a few points .
Death by a thousand cuts eh? I hear you man.

Quoting StrayDog
... so... expecting a market punishment now, like always when you miss a chance. .
Hope that is it... Man did I just miss AAPL, FB, TWTR, BIDU, TSLA... on this earnings cycle? Yes I did.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,202
  • Feb 13, 2015 11:01am Feb 13, 2015 11:01am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Yeah... I closed my Mar/Mar5 207/208 with a $0.22 loss, I had just 2 of them. Before that entry I didn't had a good understanding of "more room and less dte" factor, as the thing of the great importance when trading diagonals. I am holding 210/211... will take a loss if necessary, because I currently don't see a great way to adjust that spread.
Diagonals, very tricky. The best that can happen is you get in for near free, and give yourself so much room that, near expiry, the share price has moved into good profit, maybe approaching max profit, and you never have had to worry about the death slide. Oh yeah, and Santa Claus brings you a magic pony who can fly and poop gold dookie and piss champagne.

Here's the TLT diagonal I am in for next weeks expiry, it may have a chance of good return if TLT will put up a green candle or two in the next week. The free day next Monday helps me...

http://screencast.com/t/xDDWeqPIG
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-13tlt.png Size: 59 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,203
  • Feb 13, 2015 11:05am Feb 13, 2015 11:05am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} took this call spread a little earlier doe end of week expiry, bought 209.50 for 8c and wrote 210 for 5c for a net of 3c and current trading price SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) -NYSEArca 206.07 {image} 1.44(0.70%) 17:17 - Nasdaq Real Time Price SPY Feb 2015 209.500 call (SPY150213C00209500) -OPR 0.08 {image} 0.01(14.29%) 16:52 SPY Feb 2015 210.000 call (SPY150213C00210000) -OPR 0.05 {image} 0.01(25.00%) 16:58

the above trade has tripled but I hoping it can go higher
  • #7,204
  • Feb 13, 2015 11:16am Feb 13, 2015 11:16am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} the above trade has tripled but I hoping it can go higher
right, I remember that one Cecil, thought you might have been out of luck - but how quickly things change...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,205
  • Feb 13, 2015 12:17pm Feb 13, 2015 12:17pm
yeah, pretty quick things change... we could possibly see another push up today, in last 30 minutes of RTH, just so everybody could sleep well and have a nice long weekend...

I am starting to like this guy... short, nice articles

Key Market Gauge Hits All-Time High

"The main takeaway, however, is a bullish one. The fact that a broad index like the equal-weight S&P 500 is making an all-time high suggests that the rally is healthy and that the market top is not imminent. Of course the market can top at any time. However, history would suggest that, like with the NYSE Advance-Decline Line, any market decline would likely result in at least 1 more eventual marginal new high in the S&P 500 before THE top is in."

-----------------------------------

I still have some SPY Feb 205/204.5 put spreads... I was sick for 3 days, didn't look at them. Decided later that there is no point in salvaging a few $ out of it. Was it after all a lucky thing that I got a partial fill and now I am a proud owner of just 2 of those babies? Well, hell yeah! But just in case of some kind of SHTF binary event, let them be. Need a good trade to sooth the pain.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,206
  • Feb 13, 2015 12:48pm Feb 13, 2015 12:48pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} And it looks that way... out of my position, since price action this 2 hours was all about going sideways to grinding higher. Not interested in fighting that anymore.
Took 3 point loss there, now it would be 2 point gain... That is ALL movement in 4+ hours of trading?
Even Dax a.k.a. European Dragon is stuck in a 10 point range.
(Children, do not trade right after sickness, wait a couple of days... )


Could this be THE MOST BORING Friday the 13th of all time?
This one is a proper candidate for the title.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,207
  • Feb 13, 2015 1:02pm Feb 13, 2015 1:02pm
Quoting StrayDog
Could this be THE MOST BORING Friday the 13th of all time? This one is a proper candidate for the title.
boring just what the doctor ordered for me - trying to ride out the theta wave down to expiry week for Feb spreads. I don't have a lot of free margin so am not shopping much for anything new, but I should.....probably should look at spreads for early Mar expiry...

,,,also setting up GTC orders for all the Feb spreads, things change too fast during expiry week to sit and watch for the ideal exit...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,208
  • Feb 13, 2015 1:31pm Feb 13, 2015 1:31pm
Quoting The Fool
.....probably should look at spreads for early Mar expiry.....
filled this TLT put spread for just comms, it's safe down to $123.85...(Mar1/Mar2, $125/$124)...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-13_tlt5.png Size: 36 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,209
  • Feb 13, 2015 2:07pm Feb 13, 2015 2:07pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} the above trade has tripled but I hoping it can go higher
hope you waited, Cecil - that vertical will get up to 5x or better if SPY keeps rising into the close...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,210
  • Feb 13, 2015 2:29pm Feb 13, 2015 2:29pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} hope you waited, Cecil - that vertical will get up to 5x or better if SPY keeps rising into the close...
Yeah, rise up, into the close, use the Friday end-of-trading-week lack of liquidity, to easier push higher. We have seen that plenty of times.
Good job CG.

Inserted Video
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,211
  • Feb 13, 2015 2:45pm Feb 13, 2015 2:45pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Yeah, rise up, into the close, use the Friday end-of-trading-week lack of liquidity, to easier push higher. We have seen that plenty of times. Good job CG. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zoMYU_nOGNg
nice ...well, I am in some very dicey spreads, but I am not gonna start sweating until next week. Just a little red candle or 2 and m/l sideways PA next week and I will be golden. Have a good weekend, all.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,212
  • Feb 13, 2015 2:57pm Feb 13, 2015 2:57pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} took this call spread a little earlier doe end of week expiry, bought 209.50 for 8c and wrote 210 for 5c for a net of 3c and current trading price SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) -NYSEArca 206.07 {image} 1.44(0.70%) 17:17 - Nasdaq Real Time Price SPY Feb 2015 209.500 call (SPY150213C00209500) -OPR 0.08 {image} 0.01(14.29%) 16:52 SPY Feb 2015 210.000 call (SPY150213C00210000) -OPR 0.05 {image} 0.01(25.00%) 16:58
I'm waiting right up until the end to close out, so far i'm up 8x my initial investment and looking for 10x


SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
-NYSEArca
209.75 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.83(0.40%) 20:55 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #7,213
  • Feb 13, 2015 2:58pm Feb 13, 2015 2:58pm
trying to fill a SPY 208/207.5 put vertical for next week, @ $0.09, maybe too cheap...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,214
  • Feb 13, 2015 2:59pm Feb 13, 2015 2:59pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I'm waiting right up until the end to close out, so far i'm up 8x my initial investment and looking for 10x SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) -NYSEArca 209.75 {image} 0.83(0.40%) 20:55 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
closed and got the 10x bagger

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
-NYSEArca
209.81 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.89(0.43%) 8:58PM GMT - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #7,215
  • Feb 13, 2015 3:02pm Feb 13, 2015 3:02pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} closed and got the 10x bagger SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) -NYSEArca 209.81 {image} 0.89(0.43%) 8:58PM GMT - Nasdaq Real Time Price
awesome
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,216
  • Feb 13, 2015 3:05pm Feb 13, 2015 3:05pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} awesome
thanks, these weekly verticals are great strategy when they work. Just one per month will change ones bank balance
  • #7,217
  • Feb 13, 2015 3:07pm Feb 13, 2015 3:07pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} thanks, these weekly verticals are great strategy when they work. Just one per month will change ones bank balance
hey if you can make 5x-10x on some, you can afford to be wrong on some and still make beaucoup. Good job, Cecil.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,218
  • Feb 13, 2015 3:10pm Feb 13, 2015 3:10pm
was trying to do a vertical put spread on AAPL but had no luck, had 17c possibility as below, may get better prices on Tuesday

AAPL Feb 2015 125.000 put (AAPL150220P00125000)
-OPR
0.59 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.35(37.23%) 20:52

AAPL Feb 2015 124.000 put (AAPL150220P00124000)
-OPR
0.42 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.24(36.36%) 20:53
  • #7,219
  • Feb 13, 2015 3:12pm Feb 13, 2015 3:12pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} hey if you can make 5x-10x on some, you can afford to be wrong on some and still make beaucoup. Good job, Cecil.
yes that's what I've been saying for a long time and for novices there is no other instrument out there that teaches you money management better than options
  • #7,220
  • Edited 1:11am Feb 14, 2015 1:00am | Edited 1:11am
Maybe someday there will be some profit taking on AMZN...will watch this vertical or similar on Tues-Wed, like to spend less money
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-13_amzn.png Size: 106 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-13amzn2.png Size: 56 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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