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  • #7,161
  • Feb 11, 2015 12:03pm Feb 11, 2015 12:03pm
Quoting The Fool
I like the itm put calendar idea there, but not gonna pay much for it. Since it's so far out, I can afford to wait
I like cheap calendars, especially when they say they will pay 15:1
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,162
  • Feb 11, 2015 12:05pm Feb 11, 2015 12:05pm
Quoting The Fool
hey, welcome back StrayDog, are you ready to rock n' roll?
I am still sick, sweating at home, I found these pics of BWBs in my inbox, since I e-mailed them to myself from work. Starting to work maybe tomorrow. Still catching up who said what, Greece, Ukraine, blah, blah... all I care is BIDU and TSLA earnings right now , maybe will try something there...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,163
  • Feb 11, 2015 12:05pm Feb 11, 2015 12:05pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} This is what he does all the time: Feb5 - he entered BWB with Feb6 expiry {image} Feb6 - Than he makes a regular Butterfly {image} Explanations are inside pictures...
thx, SDog, I have been looking those over....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,164
  • Feb 11, 2015 12:33pm Feb 11, 2015 12:33pm
not looking good for these entries
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,165
  • Feb 11, 2015 1:37pm Feb 11, 2015 1:37pm
anyone looking to buy QQQ Mar20 Puts? Strike 104 looks attractive
  • #7,166
  • Feb 11, 2015 3:42pm Feb 11, 2015 3:42pm
wtf? /ES rising after hours, bonds falling, thought maybe a big ER related move across the board, but I don't see it....

well, we'll see if it holds overnight. I will be looking at SPY Feb/Feb4 call spreads Thursday morning.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,167
  • Feb 11, 2015 3:52pm Feb 11, 2015 3:52pm
Quoting charron
anyone looking to buy QQQ Mar20 Puts? Strike 104 looks attractive
I've not gotten into the habit of trading QQQ, but I see what you mean, based on TA alone. My concern re: short index trades is the undeniable bullish slant of the market. With ECB's QE cranking up in March, that may only get slantier, although anything can happen....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,168
  • Feb 11, 2015 4:02pm Feb 11, 2015 4:02pm
Quoting The Fool
wtf? /ES rising after hours, bonds falling, thought maybe a big ER related move across the board, but I don't see it.... well, we'll see if it holds overnight. I will be looking at SPY Feb/Feb4 call spreads Thursday morning.
we'll see

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100746255?region=world
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,169
  • Feb 11, 2015 6:14pm Feb 11, 2015 6:14pm
Quoting The Fool
wtf? /ES rising after hours, bonds falling, thought maybe a big ER related move across the board, but I don't see it.... well, we'll see if it holds overnight. I will be looking at SPY Feb/Feb4 call spreads Thursday morning.
Its Dead Cat bounce of Euro due to the Fake friendly Posturing of Greece. More than likely, nothing is going to come out from EU/greece meeting
  • #7,170
  • Edited 9:16pm Feb 11, 2015 8:56pm | Edited 9:16pm
yeah, I see /ES has fallen back and is red in early Asia, UST futures are red, too.

What do ya'll think will happen with Greece? I don't have anything but a guess. Clearly, imo, Greece should be allowed to leave the EMU, default on the debts they can't pay, and reap the whirlwind that results. If I had to guess, though, I'd say that won't happen. Just like the old saying goes, something like: "when you owe the bank $1,000,000 and you cant pay, you've got a big problem. When you owe the bank $350 billion and you can't pay, the bank has a big problem."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,171
  • Edited 10:43pm Feb 11, 2015 10:12pm | Edited 10:43pm
http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/11...slump-underway

silver (would be) scraping bottom big time below $15 ---- SLV Mar/Mar4 $15 put calendar is a $0.02 debit --- 20 lot trade risks $80 to make $300...b/e's $15.75 and $14.25
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,172
  • Feb 11, 2015 10:27pm Feb 11, 2015 10:27pm
Quoting The Fool
yeah, I see /ES has fallen back and is red in early Asia, UST futures are red, too. What do ya'll think will happen with Greece? I don't have anything but a guess. Clearly, imo, Greece should be allowed to leave the EMU, default on the debts they can't pay, and reap the whirlwind that results. If I had to guess, though, I'd say that won't happen. Just like the old saying goes, something like: "when you owe the bank $1,000,000 and you cant pay, you've got a big problem. When you owe the bank $350 billion and you can't pay, the bank has a big problem."...
This is not going anywhere. Imagine someone owing 350 Billion and demanding his own terms and conditions? still wants to have a steak and shrimp for dinner and no promise of economic reforms? The Party was over months ago but Greek PM and FM still high on their horses promising ridiculous dreams to their masses who is equally high. I expect exit from euro by end of year or early next year
  • #7,173
  • Feb 11, 2015 10:41pm Feb 11, 2015 10:41pm
Quoting charron
{quote} This is not going anywhere. Imagine someone owing 350 Billion and demanding his own terms and conditions? still wants to have a steak and shrimp for dinner and no promise of economic reforms? The Party was over months ago but Greek PM and FM still high on their horses promising ridiculous dreams to their masses who is equally high. I expect exit from euro by end of year or early next year
yeah, I hear ya - but if they let Greece go and they default, a lot of northern tier banks are going to lose a lot of money. The sage top wonks from those banks and the ECB will get in front of the cameras and say that the threat of contagion is nothing to worry about, but stage right I bet they crap their pants, and the crowds at the Podemos rallies get bigger and bigger....

Anyway, any good trader wants to know: fine, it's an awful mess, now how do I profit from it? As we all know, you have to be right ,,,and right on time...not so easy in this case.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,174
  • Feb 11, 2015 11:51pm Feb 11, 2015 11:51pm
Thanksgiving $1.50 gap is a target, USO Jul/Oct $27/$28.5 calls puts the sweet spot right on it. 10 lot trade risks $95 to make $1,300 - If you come up short, you got 3 months more to do something with. B/e's at $19.60 and $30.50. MaxP near $27.00...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,175
  • Feb 12, 2015 12:14am Feb 12, 2015 12:14am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} .... Anyway, any good trader wants to know: fine, it's an awful mess, now how do I profit from it? As we all know, you have to be right ,,,and right on time...not so easy in this case.
Difficult to trade the greek exit, I don't know, may be finding values in good German/french Banks(like Deutsche(DB) and BNP paribas)? I would bet DB would reverse the trend once Dark "greek" cloud gets off its back. Deutsche has good fundamentals but its almost 60% off since the crisis started. May be buying DB calls after the dust settles?
  • #7,176
  • Feb 12, 2015 1:17am Feb 12, 2015 1:17am
probably a good idea, charron - also, if ECB's QE has the effect of increasing inflation expectations (as did occur with the Fed's various QE's, to one degree or another) then Eurozone bond rates would rise - greener pastures for the banks
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,177
  • Feb 12, 2015 7:51am Feb 12, 2015 7:51am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} /ZB and TLT dropping like stone again, I am getting close to closing the trade for small profit. Everyone has been calling for the crash of bonds forever - all been wrong forever - now, all geniuses. I thought we'd see a big drop, just not this big. TLT working on a 2-week drop I'd guess as big or bigger than ever seen.
/ZB down overnight, but there's a 30yr bond auction today, will likely boost /ZB, we'll see. Good movement in currencies overnight with help from Swedish CB, Japan squawk, Ukraine cease-fire news. Just waiting for the next Greek noise. /ES up early, bull market will go vertical if/when the various macro clouds drift away....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,178
  • Feb 12, 2015 8:46am Feb 12, 2015 8:46am
Quoting The Fool
SLV Mar/Mar4 $15 put calendar is a $0.02 debit --- 20 lot trade risks $80 to make $300...b/e's $15.75 and $14.25
trying to fill this for $0.03
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,179
  • Feb 12, 2015 8:52am Feb 12, 2015 8:52am
Quoting The Fool
Thanksgiving $1.50 gap is a target, USO Jul/Oct $27/$28.5 calls puts the sweet spot right on it. 10 lot trade risks $95 to make $1,300 - If you come up short, you got 3 months more to do something with. B/e's at $19.60 and $30.50. MaxP near $27.00...
trying to fill USO Jul/Oct $27/$28 calls for $0.10!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,180
  • Feb 12, 2015 9:31am Feb 12, 2015 9:31am
Quoting StrayDog
.... Still catching up who said what, Greece, Ukraine, blah, blah... all I care is BIDU and TSLA earnings right now , maybe will try something there...
Yeah... I wanted to do the usual there, i.e. short strangles, and I would make money on both of them... but when my wife saw me in front of computer... "what are you doing, sitting there sick? Go to bed!"... Pffffffff... Marriage compromises... +

TSLA did breach EM of $18 slightly, but my strangles are wide... so... expecting a market punishment now, like always when you miss a chance.
I will just listen to relaxing music and sit on my hands .
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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