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  • #960,901
  • Feb 17, 2015 1:15pm Feb 17, 2015 1:15pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Oh man...I just came back from lunch and what do I see...missed the entry again. Someone doesn't want me to short and I don't know why. I will just wait for asia and see if I can get a good entry then.
don't try to fool us, we all know where you spent all of your time today...
Attached Image
DONT ASK ME QUESTION, BUT U CAN BAN ME I DONT CARE!
  • #960,902
  • Feb 17, 2015 1:17pm Feb 17, 2015 1:17pm
The EUR/USD range continues. I doubt we'll see any change before tomorrow when FED will release the minutes from the FOMC meeting.
  • #960,903
  • Feb 17, 2015 1:22pm Feb 17, 2015 1:22pm
Quoting TheNoob
{quote} don't try to fool us, we all know where you spent all of your time today... {image}
I almost feel like it...missed all today's short opportunities. But well, it still doesn't look super bearish, so at least one more will come...ideally before Tokyo.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #960,904
  • Feb 17, 2015 1:33pm Feb 17, 2015 1:33pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} LOL The candle is less than an inch {image}
Haha well yeah if you go to the monthly chart sir.... but look at that move from the lows on a M15 chart and it looks a bit different
  • #960,905
  • Feb 17, 2015 1:38pm Feb 17, 2015 1:38pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Oil is slippery - on M15 you will be slaughtered
Yea, gotta be the most volatile market there is right now. Still think we should see minimum of 50 before moving to 65
  • #960,906
  • Feb 17, 2015 1:39pm Feb 17, 2015 1:39pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Oil is slippery - on M15 you will be slaughtered
Guessing you have a UCAD short running?
  • #960,907
  • Feb 17, 2015 1:40pm Feb 17, 2015 1:40pm
Quoting sisse
Bulls hanging on the brink (but still holding) and euro looks set to lose floor even before the roll. 1.138x only level to track for the rest of the session but euro looks pretty much like the Greek Drama: a done deal. Equities in exhaustion move in my books and they look set to close higher holding all markets in any further attempts to move out of the range for today. Fading the highs on a rejection looks very "yummy" in the ES, leg which will open the go ahead in oil, dollar and therefore in euro. Let see how the US afternoon session pans put.......
I'm still waiting for those feeds where you get that the deal is done already.
  • #960,908
  • Feb 17, 2015 1:47pm Feb 17, 2015 1:47pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Yep, flipped + XAU Vs Crude
Will probably switch to a long on the next downswing on crude and stop shorting. This is a period of strength so it's no surprise really. Will wait for 65 or higher to short again. You seeing XAU go way lower? I still expect new lows there in coming months/yrs. Saw you had a nice entry up there 1300+
  • #960,909
  • Feb 17, 2015 2:06pm Feb 17, 2015 2:06pm
Quoting MaryAnne
{quote} Hi GlobalMacro nice to see you here again You should drop by cable thread once a while! Theres more people sharing analysis there, so it wont be so boring anymore lol and yea... managed to close some cable shorts earlier on another live account. first account still waiting for a LL to close some older shorts at Gonna have high impact news tomorrow. BOE then FOMC. I basically ignore the Greece soap opera crap in the press for now, and just focus on central banks for the eurusd. Since we wont know at time of release if those are real...

I will ... when I see something interesting , will drop by and share it with you guys over there , no probs.

Interest rate-wise:

It was all about Euro-Bunds today .... the genius folks running the exchange on which the futures contracts are traded picked
the "perfect timing" to halt all trading, making it impossible for options traders (including myself) to hedge their options exposure for expiration day on friday. Thank God trading resumed later on in the day.

The fast and furious eur/usd rally in early LDN was on the back of 14% increase in euro-bunds yields.

10yBunds Yields - M15
Attached Image


10y Treasury Notes quickly caught up yielding 2.11 (up 3%) putting a cap on eur/usd.

10y-TreasuryNote Yields - Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 10s.png Size: 8 KB



10y-Gilts followed suit w/ yields @ 1.76 (up 5%)

10y-Gilts Yields - Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 10sG.png Size: 8 KB


But Euro-Bunds truly stole the show today. Everybody and their brother dumped all their bunds ( ... futures) didn't even want to touch the damn thing following the acrimony in debt negotiations. It shows how investors feel about the health of the strongest economy in EZ under these circumstances.
"Mouney knows it best" , like 21vs used to say ... don't matter the he-said-she-said-bullsh:::t coming across the wires ... watch the "mouney": creditors are in real deep doodoo despite all their posturings .. Just watch what the money markets have to say.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #960,910
  • Feb 17, 2015 2:13pm Feb 17, 2015 2:13pm
thanks for sharing those charts. your post is very informative!

Am trying to learn how these yields affect demand for the respective currencies lol and its a shame the futures market did that to you guys that totally sucks! no good reason given for the halt? Like was it system failure or what? Grrrr

Am thinking if Bunds being dumped, then euro should weaken right? Yet there is this mini bull running around intraday... based on rumors of "done deal" on Greece? Lol... Am looking for a nice price to short EURGBP and EURUSD again once the euro starts its little relief rally (there should be one?) after the Greece drama is over.

Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} I will ... when I see something interesting , will drop by and share it with you guys , no probs. Interest rate-wise: It was all about Euro-Bunds today .... the genius folks running the exchange on which the futures contracts are traded picked the "perfect timing" to halt all trading, making it impossible for options traders (including myself) to hedge their options exposure for expiration day on friday. The fast and furious eur/usd rally in early LDN was on the back of 14% increase in euro-bunds yields. 10yBunds Yields - M15 {image}...
  • #960,911
  • Feb 17, 2015 2:19pm Feb 17, 2015 2:19pm
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} You gonna leave your E/U position overnight?
Hey sory forgot to update that one, was closed on BE.
  • #960,912
  • Feb 17, 2015 2:31pm Feb 17, 2015 2:31pm
Quoting MaryAnne
thanks for sharing those charts. your post is very informative! Am trying to learn how these yields affect demand for the respective currencies lol and its a shame the futures market did that to you guys that totally sucks! no good reason given for the halt? Like was...
Here's how it works:
Futures drop , rates increase -> eur/usd rallies , futures rally , rates drop --> eur/usd drops because futures are based on bond or note prices.
Now in FX it's a tiny bit more involved, it being a ratio of two currencies you have to take into consideration the other side of the coin as well i.e. xxx/USD which is the treasury notes (or short-term money markets) but the yields are worked out the same way ...
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #960,913
  • Feb 17, 2015 2:35pm Feb 17, 2015 2:35pm
EUR/USD m5
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Click to Enlarge Name: 17.2.2015 eu m5.PNG Size: 16 KB
  • #960,914
  • Feb 17, 2015 2:37pm Feb 17, 2015 2:37pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} Here's how it works: Futures drop , rates increase -> eur/usd rallies , futures rally , rates drop --> eur/usd drops because futures are based on bond or note prices. Now in FX it's a tiny bit more involved, it being a ratio of two currencies you have to take to consideration the other side of the coin as well i.e. xxx/USD which the treasury notes but the yields are worked out the same way ...
Wow. I thought US 2 /5 / 10 year note yield up = USDX stronger generally... so I was wrong? asked someone else in other forum and he said that to me xD Boy my bad.

And alright, so if Bunds futures fall -> EUR stronger -> EURUSD rises (all else being equal)?
  • #960,915
  • Feb 17, 2015 2:37pm Feb 17, 2015 2:37pm
The 1534 high is within reach of FOMC tomorrow, not a fan of that.
  • #960,916
  • Feb 17, 2015 2:45pm Feb 17, 2015 2:45pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} I almost feel like it...missed all today's short opportunities. But well, it still doesn't look super bearish, so at least one more will come...ideally before Tokyo.
It looks better now...still might get a good chance to do a nice short later. But I am still careful, because 1499 may come before the drop or possibly more, who knows...guys might spike the price higher before FOMC, so I will only short during asian session, get some pips and stay out tomorrow, until the picture gets more clear.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #960,917
  • Feb 17, 2015 2:46pm Feb 17, 2015 2:46pm
Quoting Pharm0r
The 1534 high is within reach of FOMC tomorrow, not a fan of that.
Looks like we are looking at the chart the same way. Looking at H4, this wants one more serious push up before going down.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #960,918
  • Feb 17, 2015 2:47pm Feb 17, 2015 2:47pm
Quoting MaryAnne
{quote} Wow. I thought US 2 /5 / 10 year note yield up = USDX stronger generally... so I was wrong? asked someone else in other forum and he said that to me xD Boy my bad. And alright, so if Bunds futures fall -> EUR stronger -> EURUSD rises (all else being equal)?
Well, we have to be careful not to compare apples and oranges. What we have to do here is to distinguish between an index --> USDX and a currency pair --> EUR/USD.
In the case of USDX since you're looking purely at USD --> one economy: all you need is your 2 / 5 / 10 yields and so on, that's correct.
But in the case of EUR/USD you're looking at two distinct economies so you have to account for that fact and also include euro yields in your analysis.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #960,919
  • Feb 17, 2015 2:52pm Feb 17, 2015 2:52pm
interesting. the other person didnt teach me this... he said only to look at 2/5/10 year T notes yield. If up, USDX is stronger then eurusd will fall. he never looked at bund yields at all... lol.

thanks for sharing! will bear that in mind

ps: gonna head for bed again soon. cya again later my friend!

Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} Well, we have to be careful not to compare apples and oranges. What we have to do here is to distinguish between an index --> USDX and a currency pair --> EUR/USD. In the case of USDX since you're looking purely at USD --> one economy: all you need is your 2 / 5 / 10 yields and so on, that's correct. But in the case of EUR/USD you're looking at two distinct economies so you have to account for that fact and also include euro yields in your analysis.
  • #960,920
  • Feb 17, 2015 2:52pm Feb 17, 2015 2:52pm
is this possible???
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 17.2.2015 eu Daily.PNG Size: 14 KB
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