Simple Uncomplicated (obvious) trading | Page 26 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

SIMPLE EA for a simple method needed!! 2 replies

Trading Made Simple the right way, and other trading lessons 334 replies

Trading is this Simple? Finally Explained simple and clearly! 46 replies

Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom 1,361 replies

Despair means - obvious 14 replies

Attachments: Simple Uncomplicated (obvious) trading
Exit Attachments

Simple Uncomplicated (obvious) trading

  • Linked: Simple trading method | Demo Account XXXXXX25
  • Expand
  • Last Sync: Apr 26, 2015
Apr 26, 2015
Last Sync: Apr 26, 2015
Apr 26, 2015
Last Sync: Apr 26, 2015
Apr 26, 2015
Last Sync: Apr 26, 2015
Apr 26, 2015
Last Sync: Apr 26, 2015
to
No trading activity in this period.
  • #501
  • Feb 16, 2015 7:43am Feb 16, 2015 7:43am
Quoting HB Pips
{quote} Hello gspajon...thx you for all your insight within this thread. This is one of only a few threads that i follow that i enjoy seeing new information and posts in. Please keep up the good work as I am learning tons from your information. Thanks for sharing and thanks for the insight. It is much appreciated.
HB...Thank YOU for your kind words, I am truly gratified to know that you and others find value in what I am presenting. Understand that it helps me as much as anyone to articulate my view point in a rational manner then have others find something worthwhile in what I saw.

Please feel free to contribute as you see fit. I welcome new ideas and points of view.
  • #502
  • Feb 16, 2015 9:21am Feb 16, 2015 9:21am
Update on GBP/USD (long):

Price seems to have stalled here and looks like some selling is returning into this market. I try not to draw too many conclusions from today, as the all the US banks are closed. But I've decided to save some profit on this trade. I have moved my stop up to just below today's low. This protects approximately 162 pips...

Considering that this is a retrace on the larger time frame, I may look at taking this market short again, assuming I can get a "clean" entry.
Attached Image
  • #503
  • Feb 17, 2015 7:41am Feb 17, 2015 7:41am
WOW...I step away from the computer for not even ONE day and all this stuff happens...so I'll try to be brief:

GBP/AUD (long): Stopped out with 1,300 pips profit...this trade went for about a month but was very profitable with three positions each making over 800 pips
Attached Image


EUR/USD (long): Price continues to range and that range seems to be getting smaller...probably has something to do with the situation in Greece (ya think??) I have moved my stop up inside the range, to the aggregate break even point. This is usually not recommended but I want to remove risk in this trade in case the Greek Government does something stupid.
Attached Image


GBP/USD (SHORT): I have reversed my position to short now on this market. You can see that yesterday I was stopped out of my long position with 163 pips and the daily candle produced a clear engulfing candle. I wan't able to see this until late last night when I returned home. By that time it had retraced into the perfect area for a short entry. Thus I am now short with a stop above yesterday's high - about 75 pips risk.
Attached Image
  • #504
  • Feb 17, 2015 8:27am Feb 17, 2015 8:27am
Quoting gspajon
GBP/USD (SHORT): I have reversed my position to short now on this market. You can see that yesterday I was stopped out of my long position with 163 pips and the daily candle produced a clear engulfing candle. I wan't able to see this until late last night when I returned home. By that time it had retraced into the perfect area for a short entry. Thus I am now short with a stop above yesterday's high - about 75 pips risk.
Hi Gspajon!

As for GBPUSD, don't you think it can be just a retracement to level1.562xx before further movement up?

Regards,
Sergey
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD 2.jpg Size: 300 KB
  • #505
  • Feb 17, 2015 8:44am Feb 17, 2015 8:44am
Quoting sergzav
{quote} Hi Gspajon! As for GBPUSD, don't you think it can be just a retracement to level1.562xx before further movement up? Regards, Sergey {image}
Sergzav...It absolutely could do just that. I am unable to predict what may or may not happen in the future, I can only deal with what I see happening in the present. It really boils down to this...the area to which you refer IS an area where buyer did overcome sellers in the past. And as such, it is reasonable to think that may happen again. In anticipation of this it would also be reasonable to consider long positions from that area.

What I saw was at the level where I was stopped, sellers came into the market and stopped the upward progress of prices. As well they were able to overwhelm buying on a retest of the same area. At present, prices have stalled...they aren't moving significantly higher, or lower...what does that say? Could it be that the selling and buyer are beginning to come into balance again? If that is so, which way will the next imbalance occur?

I don't know, nor can anyone else "predict" what will happen in the future. I placed a short order based on what I saw last evening before I went to bed...admittedly I was tired and perhaps not at my best mental sharpness...But for now, I will wait to see what happens.

If you're view point is still bullish...that's OK, there's a perfectly good justification for your view point. This is what makes a market...two people that agree on a single price but have opposing view points...

It won't be the first time I've been wrong...nor will it be the last...
  • #506
  • Feb 17, 2015 9:02am Feb 17, 2015 9:02am
Quoting gspajon
{quote} Sergzav...It absolutely could do just that. I am unable to predict what may or may not happen in the future, I can only deal with what I see happening in the present. It really boils down to this...the area to which you refer IS an area where buyer did overcome sellers in the past. And as such, it is reasonable to think that may happen again. In anticipation of this it would also be reasonable to consider long positions from that area. What I saw was at the level where I was stopped, sellers came into the market and stopped the upward progress...
GSpajon,

Thank you for your detailed answer! It's just my thought... Will see what will happen

Have a nice evening and good trade!
  • #507
  • Feb 17, 2015 2:04pm Feb 17, 2015 2:04pm
update on GBP/USD(short)

Well it appears price has not gone "rushing" down as I anticipated it might. In fact sergzav seems to have seen this more clearly than I did this morning...the jury is still out however. A doji is forming toward the end of the day and there is no better signal of market balance than this type of doji...

I have reduced my risk in this trade to roughly 26 pips...only thing to do now is wait.
Attached Image
  • #508
  • Feb 17, 2015 3:56pm Feb 17, 2015 3:56pm
Dear gspajon and all,

I'd like to ask you about your opinion about the following trade opportunity.
It seems that EUR/JPY is forming engulfing bar today with potential movement up to the level 140.00.

Would you be so kind to share your thoughts about it?

Thanks

Regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY.jpg Size: 342 KB
  • #509
  • Feb 17, 2015 4:52pm Feb 17, 2015 4:52pm
Quoting sergzav
Dear gspajon and all, I'd like to ask you about your opinion about the following trade opportunity. It seems that EUR/JPY is forming engulfing bar today with potential movement up to the level 140.00. Would you be so kind to share your thoughts about it? Thanks Regards
Sergzav...you could be right about this...however I have said this before about the EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY, both of these markets are not clear on direction...this holds with the USD/JPY as well

The bullish engulfer is ONE sign of buying strength, and could be interpreted in this instance as a long entry signal. However look at the preceding price action...it is a "slug-fest" between the buyers and sellers. There is no clear direction even on the larger picture...a higher high, yet a lower low...NOTHING about this market is clear or obvious.

One could make the argument that during each round of "battle" between the buyers and sellers, that the buyers have succeeded in winning only to be met with more selling that again balances the order flow...this candle may indeed indicate the victorious buyer again...so there would be a logical motive for adding your buy order to this round.

For my part I don't like it...just my opinion...nothing more...I can find no logical reason why it wouldn't work with added caveat that you will need to be patient as this trade may take a week or more to reach the area you are targeting. You will also need to run a fairly deep stop to guard against the back and forth nature of the recent price action.
  • #510
  • Feb 17, 2015 10:59pm Feb 17, 2015 10:59pm
Quoting gspajon
{quote} Sergzav...you could be right about this...however I have said this before about the EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY, both of these markets are not clear on direction...this holds with the USD/JPY as well The bullish engulfer is ONE sign of buying strength, and could be interpreted in this instance as a long entry signal. However look at the preceding price action...it is a "slug-fest" between the buyers and sellers. There is no clear direction even on the larger picture...a higher high, yet a lower low...NOTHING about this market is clear or obvious....
Hi gspajon,

Thank you for your sharing! To be honest, so deep stop is scaring me as well (I absolutely agree with you). So I will wait for better time to enter...

Have a nice day and good trade!
  • #511
  • Feb 18, 2015 6:43am Feb 18, 2015 6:43am
Stopped out on GBP/USD - short...small loss and it look now like I might have been a bit too aggressive with my stop on the long side. Always a delicate thing to manage. Net-Net a small gain of about 130+ pips
Attached Image
  • #512
  • Feb 18, 2015 6:50am Feb 18, 2015 6:50am
Trade opportunity on Gold (Long):

Gold is not is that critical area where we might begin to see some signs of buying. Prices are now in the area near the bottom of the monthly channel retesting that bottom. The weekly chart has entered the area where buyers took over last time and appears to be exhausting the selling.

The intraday charts are showing what appears to be buyers now coming in to balance the selling. I have been triggered on one position that I placed last night before going to bed. I have a second position waiting at the round number 1200. Both stops are below the last weekly swing low, and yes that is a very long way...thus I have made these positions as small as they can be...only a single micro lot.

It may be a bit early yet on this market to enter long but we shall see.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade6-1.PNG Size: 94 KB
  • #513
  • Feb 18, 2015 6:56am Feb 18, 2015 6:56am
I know I probably shouldn't say this but I am growing increasingly impatient with this trade...the EUR/USD is just stuck as our "leaders" negotiate (ad nauseum) what to do with a small country that wants money but doesn't want to pay it back...

And so we sit here...with price doing nothing...I have left the stop where it is which is a break even on the aggregate price of the two positions...Now into the 17th day of this...CRAP!!
Attached Image
  • #514
  • Feb 18, 2015 9:16am Feb 18, 2015 9:16am
EUR/USD knocking on the stop out door
Attached Image
  • #515
  • Feb 18, 2015 10:27am Feb 18, 2015 10:27am
2nd position Long triggered
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade6-2.PNG Size: 107 KB
  • #516
  • Feb 18, 2015 10:54am Feb 18, 2015 10:54am
Stopped out for a small gain of 16 pips...
Attached Image
  • #517
  • Feb 19, 2015 7:35am Feb 19, 2015 7:35am
Pretty much flat on everything now except for Gold, which got a pleasant surprise yesterday from the FOMC minutes.

Here below we see that buyers came in and sent prices up into the area on the daily chart where seller last took over. I expect more selling to come in today or tomorrow so we'll see what happens. In case that does occur I have place a third and final buy order down close to the area where buyer battled it out and came out winners. (that buying sent prices skyrocketing).

I have placed a dashed line on the daily chart to indicate my aggregate (average) position so as to better know if I am net positive or negative.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade6-3.PNG Size: 104 KB
  • #518
  • Feb 19, 2015 10:40am Feb 19, 2015 10:40am
Another attempt at GBP/USD - short:
Price has moved into the 61.8% retrace area and the intraday charts are starting to show some selling coming into this market. Note how the 4 hr chart dropped below a topping pattern and is not retesting that same area.

I have entered a short position with a stop above the high for this week/day. Its all up to the rest of you out there now...need more selling!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade4-0.PNG Size: 89 KB
  • #519
  • Feb 19, 2015 11:59am Feb 19, 2015 11:59am
I did my part and shorted at 1.5441. ;-)

There is a huge call OI at 1.55:

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/o...rest/main.html

This will be defended by the call writers. Additionally, USD has had bad fundamental news the past few days, but holding up well. That shows underlying strength for USD.

Regards,
EZ
  • #520
  • Feb 19, 2015 12:18pm Feb 19, 2015 12:18pm
Quoting ezcurrency
I did my part and shorted at 1.5441. ;-) There is a huge call OI at 1.55: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/o...rest/main.html This will be defended by the call writers. Additionally, USD has had bad fundamental news the past few days, but holding up well. That shows underlying strength for USD. Regards, EZ
Thanks...EZ...

I wasn't able to see the charts you listed in the link but I will take your word for it...I like the logic. Please feel to contribute again as you see fit.
4 traders viewing now