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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #3,981
  • Feb 16, 2015 5:25pm Feb 16, 2015 5:25pm
Quoting anima999
I do have a question though: the forecast is 0.3% which is already 0.2% less than the last figure of 0.5%. If the figure came out as say 0.4%; better than forecast but still down on the previous figure, is that good or bad?
hey anima999,

CPI has its designed purpose just like all other economy indicators. It raises the price for the currency if the actual read if better than the expected number. And that is that.

Is it bad or good?

When it comes to how well the economy's doing, CPI is just a part of measurements to the a much bigger picture.
Bottom line is CPI reading would be the one of the key factors for central banks to make decision on rate, QE and etc.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
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  • #3,982
  • Edited 9:20pm Feb 16, 2015 7:34pm | Edited 9:20pm
Despite how it LOOKS, I still reckon it's bullish. As in the first move up in a bullish sequence.

A loss of 181.1 tempers my view but only a loss 180.4 and 179.8 destroys it, suggesting a large size consolidation/correction - or just plain bearish.

Pursuing the bullish view, any move now over about 182.2/4 has the potential to take it back to 182.9/183 then maybe 183.6. Whilst that might only be a retrace in a broader "consolidation" a break over the previous high takes it up much further.

My bullish argument is somewhat predicated upon the first move down 184.1 ~ 182.3 being the same length thus far as 183.4 ~ 181.5, although in extension it's 180.8 and 180.4

At 182 now, the next 20 ~40 pips makes a difference (either way)

----------------
If Cable is really bearish, it has to leave its nominal 'rising wedge' at around 1.53 and retest from the underside - no matter how brief a retest. Conversely, a move now back over 1.54 suggests that it is in a rising wedge similar to that last week on GJ - a bullish price looking like a bearish wedge. and any break of 1.545 has it up.

----------------------

UJ holds 50 % of the way back into the 'triangle' but still looks heavy.
  • #3,983
  • Feb 16, 2015 7:56pm Feb 16, 2015 7:56pm
BOE has actually said that they are expecting the CPI to be weaken in the following months due to the oil price, but they are expecting it to recover later this year. Their focus now is on the average earnings, CPI is not much of a concern to them until later this year.
  • #3,984
  • Edited 9:59pm Feb 16, 2015 8:57pm | Edited 9:59pm
Yen Trades. These are the numbers I am waiting for. Could or could not happen. Who knows.

Bullish.

Buy GBPJPY@ 181.05 Stop 179.90 Target 185.00

BUY EURJPY@ 133.70 Stop 132.90 Target 137.00

Buy AUDJPY @ 90.95 Stop 90.10 Target 93.50

I know these are quite away from price. Just where i see my best opportunities in regards to R/R etc.
  • #3,985
  • Feb 16, 2015 10:47pm Feb 16, 2015 10:47pm
the good ole 7:42 pm trade in New York is just clobbering it today.
  • #3,986
  • Feb 16, 2015 11:06pm Feb 16, 2015 11:06pm
Quoting Gbp/jpy
the good ole 7:42 pm trade in New York is just clobbering it today.
That last move up - did you notice how it was fuelled by BOTH Yen and Pound - they were moving 100% in sync
  • #3,987
  • Feb 16, 2015 11:24pm Feb 16, 2015 11:24pm
yep, Tokyo.....a special session and bunch running their central bank....I think they have a secret pact to help the citizens of Japan make some spending money
I mean like in their culture even.
  • #3,988
  • Feb 17, 2015 3:08am Feb 17, 2015 3:08am
Regardless as to the ramblings in my earlier post, I will only buy it should it break over 182.6/7, targeting 183.6/7 for about 100 pips. Otherwise, I watch.
  • #3,989
  • Feb 17, 2015 3:12am Feb 17, 2015 3:12am
And to FX ray - sorry I missed your post. I promised geppy to hold up the other forum, but he eventually disappeared and it got a little tiresome.
  • #3,990
  • Feb 17, 2015 3:59am Feb 17, 2015 3:59am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Hope you are still in Ally, am watching 181.60/50; with a break I'll aim 179.80/70

Hi FX-Ray, Are you still aiming to these levels? please mention.
  • #3,991
  • Feb 17, 2015 4:13am Feb 17, 2015 4:13am
Kinda agree with you. Cable needs to drop to at least .5338 or .5230 to resume big bear trend... which will cause GJ to drop too.
But seems cable jus wants to keep rising now, and this is dragging GJ up unfortunately.

However it is also possible it may just rise to Resistance along .5460 or .5500 before heading down which should bring GJ down
But we would need the proper economic news events as triggers for these to happen. Hopefully tomorrow UK has worse news (lower wages) which will help GJ fall lower.

Quoting Mpt
Despite how it LOOKS, I still reckon it's bullish. As in the first move up in a bullish sequence. A loss of 181.1 tempers my view but only a loss 180.4 and 179.8 destroys it, suggesting a large size consolidation/correction - or just plain bearish. Pursuing the bullish view, any move now over about 182.2/4 has the potential to take it back to 182.9/183 then maybe 183.6. Whilst that might only be a retrace in a broader "consolidation" a break over the previous high takes it up much further. My bullish argument is somewhat predicated upon the first...
  • #3,992
  • Feb 17, 2015 4:26am Feb 17, 2015 4:26am
Quoting MaryAnne
Kinda agree with you. Cable needs to drop to at least .5338 or .5230 to resume big bear trend... which will cause GJ to drop too. But seems cable jus wants to keep rising now, and this is dragging GJ up unfortunately. However it is also possible it may just rise to Resistance along .5460 or .5500 before heading down which should bring GJ down But we would need the proper economic news events as triggers for these to happen. Hopefully tomorrow UK has worse news (lower wages) which will help GJ fall lower. {quote}
I saw your other posts on the cable thread, but thought it improper to reply or comment. I think I outlined my cable thoughts well enough in the post that you quoted - cable over 1.54 slightly bullish, cable over about 1.541 has it retesting the high. Over the high, it goes. But extra resistance is running down to 1.545, so I can't comment apart from that.
  • #3,993
  • Feb 17, 2015 4:33am Feb 17, 2015 4:33am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} I saw your other posts on the cable thread, but thought it improper to reply or comment. I think I outlined my cable thoughts well enough in the post that you quoted - cable over 1.54 slightly bullish, cable over about 1.541 has it retesting the high. Over the high, it goes. But extra resistance is running down to 1.545, so I can't comment apart from that.
Thanks. I also come here to check posts to gain further insight since I trade both UJ and GU
In order for GJ to drop, either yen has to get strong (which is hard since Abe wants more stimulus unless risk off?), or GBP gets weaker (more likely due to bad data expected)...

I also have small short trades for GJ running. Doing an averaging out method and will close when x profit on trades achieved in basket.
  • #3,994
  • Feb 17, 2015 4:44am Feb 17, 2015 4:44am
Quoting MaryAnne
{quote} Thanks. I also come here to check posts to gain further insight since I trade both UJ and GU In order for GJ to drop, either yen has to get strong (which is hard since Abe wants more stimulus unless risk off?), or GBP gets weaker (more likely due to bad data expected)... I also have small short trades for GJ running. Doing an averaging out method and will close when x profit on trades achieved in basket.
Well, right now, GU holds whereas UJ is still breaking up . When I push the button, Abe San really doesn't factor into my thoughts. This is a technical trade, but we can do no more. At this time, I expect GJ to hit resistance, as UJ - if it gets that far- may halt around 119.8. Likewise, one cannot predict where Cable will go. If they all break up, I won't go to bed crying - if it fails here I don't care.
  • #3,995
  • Feb 17, 2015 4:55am Feb 17, 2015 4:55am
Quoting MaryAnne
{quote} Thanks. I also come here to check posts to gain further insight since I trade both UJ and GU In order for GJ to drop, either yen has to get strong (which is hard since Abe wants more stimulus unless risk off?), or GBP gets weaker (more likely due to bad data expected)... I also have small short trades for GJ running. Doing an averaging out method and will close when x profit on trades achieved in basket.
Where are your GJ shorts?
  • #3,996
  • Feb 17, 2015 4:56am Feb 17, 2015 4:56am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Well, right now, GU holds whereas UJ is still breaking up . When I push the button, Abe San really doesn't factor into my thoughts. This is a technical trade, but we can do no more. At this time, I expect GJ to hit resistance, as UJ - if it gets that far- may halt around 119.8. Likewise, one cannot predict where Cable will go. If they all break up, I won't go to bed crying - if it fails here I don't care.
Lol for Abe. He wants BOJ to do more stimulus again I wonder at the absurdity of it all

So... I should be looking for GU movements now, to predict GJ movements? Ok... cos I always thought yen was the mover for this pair
And yea I also agree UJ should meet Resistance soon... between 119 - 119.5 maybe. By then maybe GJ would be close to 184 I'd say.

Man, I thought PVSRA could help predict but looks like it only works on small TF.
  • #3,997
  • Feb 17, 2015 4:58am Feb 17, 2015 4:58am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Where are your GJ shorts?

Very tiny ones 0.02 @ 182.5
thinking to do small averaging out later when open short again maybe around 184
  • #3,998
  • Feb 17, 2015 5:00am Feb 17, 2015 5:00am
Quoting MaryAnne
{quote} Lol for Abe. He wants BOJ to do more stimulus again I wonder at the absurdity of it all So... I should be looking for GU movements now, to predict GJ movements? Ok... cos I always thought yen was the mover for this pair And yea I also agree UJ should meet Resistance soon... between 119 - 119.5 maybe. By then maybe GJ would be close to 184 I'd say. Man, I thought PVSRA could help predict but looks like it only works on small TF.
At this very moment, Yen and Pound are running together in correlation - something that hasn't happened for 5~8 years, so they both control GJ together. That's why the outcome is unpredictable - other than EXPECTING defined levels to hold.
  • #3,999
  • Feb 17, 2015 5:03am Feb 17, 2015 5:03am
Quoting MaryAnne
{quote} Very tiny ones 0.02 @ 182.5 thinking to do small averaging out later when open short again maybe around 184

If it's tiny, that's fine. GJ should attain resistance soon and fall back - absolute worst case (for you) it falls back from up at 186/188. anyway, diner time here
  • #4,000
  • Feb 17, 2015 5:07am Feb 17, 2015 5:07am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} At this very moment, Yen and Pound are running together in correlation - something that hasn't happened for 5~8 years, so they both control GJ together. That's why the outcome is unpredictable - other than EXPECTING defined levels to hold.
Interesting. So you mean usually GJ downmove recently is caused by yen strength and also gbp weakness and I wld have to consider both this time

Quoting Mpt
{quote} If it's tiny, that's fine. GJ should attain resistance soon and fall back - absolute worst case (for you) it falls back from up at 186/188. anyway, diner time here
Lol yea 188/189 was big resistance! Agree on that one.
And ok, enjoy your meal and thanks for advice here
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